Yeah but if you think immigrants damage things like public services and working conditions, it's not a very convincing position
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- Jan 2012
- 3291
- Worthing
- The Hammers, until Mark Noble goes.(he's still there, sort of)
- Garibaldi, dipped in tea.
Originally posted by Tubby Isaacs View PostHow many people are listening though, in the world "beyond Westminster"? He won Kensington and lost Mansfield. What he's done very well is recruit and inspire party members who can make stuff like bus policy work locally, like the old Lib Dems did (except be more honest, and not create shitstorms over perfectly sensible rationalisation). But does he cut through personally on this stuff? I don't think he does.
The way the government is going, we'll be lucky to afford any buses before long. Like I always say, you have to tie money for buses (I know it's not just about money on buses) with the big economic stuff.
Blue Labour: a fella came to my band's 20th anniversary gig the other week, turns out his Dad-in-law is Maurice Glasman. He saw my face drop when he told me, and said 'yeah, not many people like him...'.
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So there was a bunch of us - 9 strong by the end - and I ended up knocking on about 25 doors. Most were out, and I got one very enthusiastic Labour supporter, and a few soft committals. The rest were the dreaded "wouldn't say", which is understandable. A few of the others got some very "disheartened with politics" answers, which seems to be the norm amongst a certain strata. It was actually fun and I've already committed to doing it again on Friday morning!
The Conservative candidate was the next street over - on her own.
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Originally posted by johnr View PostIt's not just him; there's a whole bunch of Labour MPs social media-ing out to their constituencies and local papers today. I won't bore you with linking them though.
Blue Labour: a fella came to my band's 20th anniversary gig the other week, turns out his Dad-in-law is Maurice Glasman. He saw my face drop when he told me, and said 'yeah, not many people like him...'.
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So the Labour Party Head Office deliberately made fake Facebook to deceive the Leadership and as a result probably lost the election.
https://twitter.com/danhancox/status/1018259346264817665
https://twitter.com/danhancox/status/1018259349431603200
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1018193086365814785
Last edited by Nefertiti2; 14-07-2018, 22:57.
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https://www.channel4.com/news/factch...y-on-nhs-plans
Labour manifesto- increase spending on the NHS by 2% (dubiously costed).
Tories the other day- increase spending on the NHS by 3.4% (not costed at all)
Labour a couple of days after- increase spending on the NHS by 5% (rise from the manifesto not costed)
The English NHS budget in 2015/6 was £116bn, so we're not talking pennies here. And of course the devolved parliaments budgets would rise with the English NHS.
This is woeful, by both parties.
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Labour got 55 seats fewer than the Tories. Bastani is talking rubbish.
Can't find a longer list, but here are the 11 closest results.
http://www.cityam.com/266335/general...s-won-smallest
Southampton Itchen is the only one of them Labour lost to the Tories (by 31 votes). The other three seats on the list that Labour lost narrowly were to the SNP and Plaid Cymru. And it held 2 seats v the Tories by less than the 31 in Itchen, (Dudley North and Newcastle Under Lyme), which hardly suggests that existing marginals could be taken for granted.
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- Jan 2012
- 3291
- Worthing
- The Hammers, until Mark Noble goes.(he's still there, sort of)
- Garibaldi, dipped in tea.
The 'purge' has happened (in that a load of the HQ staffers left a few weeks back).
I think that article in the ST is just a bit of shit-stirring, more cock-up than conspiracy; though it is the case - wMcDonnell told a friend of mine a while back - that the Corbyn-supporting elements of Labour Central were ostracised/isolated from the rest of the team right through to the election; given a bit of space in the main office that was cut off from the main operation, they weren't given information, were excluded from e-mail/phone groups - and then of course there's the fairly well-sourced story that their passes to the building were disabled on Election night, in the expectation that they wouldn't be needing them again.
It was entirely dysfunctional.
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Originally posted by jeanmid View PostAs I recall prior to the election the likes of Len McCluskey were talking about 200 seats being a good result, so all this blame Party HQ seems to strike as a run up to purge HQ of anyone who doesn't think Corbyn is the greatest leader ever.
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Originally posted by jeanmid View PostAs I recall prior to the election the likes of Len McCluskey were talking about 200 seats being a good result, so all this blame Party HQ seems to strike as a run up to purge HQ of anyone who doesn't think Corbyn is the greatest leader ever.
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Here's Labour's target seats for 2022, based on the 2017 performance.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/bat...targets/labour
Only 6 of the top 13 are even Tory held, 6 are SNP, 1 Plaid. So win all those and the Tories are still 42 seats up. I make it they'd have had to win well into the 30s to get more seats. And of course, the Tories are perfectly capable of moving people around when they see Labour really going for it in a seat.
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Originally posted by Tubby Isaacs View PostHere's Labour's target seats for 2022, based on the 2017 performance.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/bat...targets/labour
Only 6 of the top 13 are even Tory held, 6 are SNP, 1 Plaid. So win all those and the Tories are still 42 seats up. I make it they'd have had to win well into the 30s to get more seats. And of course, the Tories are perfectly capable of moving people around when they see Labour really going for it in a seat.
two per cent
1. Southampton Itchen South East 31 0.03%
2. Glasgow South West Scotland 60 0.08%
3. Glasgow East Scotland 75 0.10%
4. Arfon Wales 92 0.16%
5. Airdrie and Shotts Scotland 195 0.26%
6. Pudsey Yorkshire and the Humber 331 0.31%
7. Hastings and Rye South East 346 0.32%
8. Chipping Barnet London 353 0.32%
9. Thurrock East of England 345 0.34%
10. Lanark and Hamilton East Scotland 360 0.36%
11. Preseli Pembrokeshire Wales 314 0.37%
12. Motherwell and Wishaw Scotland 318 0.38%
13. Inverclyde Scotland 384 0.49%
14. Calder Valley Yorkshire and the Humber 609 0.52%
15. Norwich North East of England 507 0.55%
16. Broxtowe East Midlands 863 0.78%
17. Stoke-on-Trent South West Midlands 663 0.80%
18. Telford West Midlands 720 0.81%
19. Dunfermline and Fife West Scotland 844 0.83%
20. Bolton West North West 936 0.92%
21. Aberconwy Wales 635 0.99%
22. Northampton North East Midlands 807 1.00%
23. Hendon London 1,072 1.03%
24. Mansfield East Midlands 1,057 1.05%
25. Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East North East 1,020 1.07%
26. Milton Keynes South South East 1,725 1.34%
27. Northampton South East Midlands 1,159 1.41%
28. Pendle North West 1,279 1.43%
29. Edinburgh North and Leith Scotland 1,625 1.44%
30. Milton Keynes North South East 1,915 1.50%
31. Morecambe and Lunesdale North West 1,399 1.53%
32. Finchley and Golders Green London 1,657 1.58%
33. Glasgow North Scotland 1,060 1.58%
34. Camborne and Redruth South West 1,577 1.63%
35. Putney London 1,554 1.66%
36. Harrow East London 1,757 1.73%
37. Watford East of England 2,092 1.78%
38. Copeland North West 1,695 1.97%
39. Morley and Outwood
Would give Labour a majority. 4 percent would make 80 seats
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I was just saying that a lot of the lowest hanging fruit would be taking seats off anti-Tory parties. If they win all those 39, it's 300 seats.
I've seen it said people weren't sent to Southampton Itchen, Putney and Hastings-Rye who were wasted in other nearby Labour seats. But is that going to be true of many others? Lots of those look like they were the main competitive seat in their areas- where would Labour have sent people to instead of Thurrock, Norwich North, Afron, Preseli Pembs etc?
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I didn't see that programme, but I've seen Kinnock's expression- a Corbynite on another site has it as his avatar. He wasn't pleasantly surprised.
His seat was always safe (he won by 51 points) but polls had suggested lots of the rest of others were in trouble. So deploying activists conservatively was understandable.
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Ah yes. A few more on their are failed defences too. I don't know if Labour were adequately represented in them, you'd expect the local MP would have been able to get a decent turnout to try and hold their seat. Doubtless a few more activists would have helped in Stoke on Trent South, but I expect lots were in Newcastle Under Lyme, where the seat was held by 30.
Newcastle Under Lyme was interesting to me because the sitting MP, Paul Farrely, is pro-EU and opposed Article 50- hilariously Sqwawkbox interpreted that as a plot to undermine Labour in Stoke on Trent Central. Yet he did better than the sitting MP in Stoke on Trent South who went along with Article 50. Farely had a mighty 0.7% swing away from him.
I think Labour MPs in leave areas have worried way too much about Brexit constituents. Alan Whitehead in Southampton Test rebelled on Article 50. He had a 7.9% swing in his favour.
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