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    Islamic State Watch

    Will Cameron do a better job of listening than the official anti-war movement has?

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      Islamic State Watch

      It doesn't seem to be quite the foregone conclusion yet. The biggest difference from a couple of years ago perhaps being that the previous Labour leader could whip the party and his shadow cabinet into voting with him.

      This is when having a fractured opposition really hurts.

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        Islamic State Watch

        As ever, Ankara seems more concerned with silencing Kurds than attacking ISIS.

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          Islamic State Watch

          "Fractured" is putting it mildly.

          JC was pictured on TV this morning in some sort of shell suit thing.
          The leader of HM Opposition looking worse than a hobo..

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            Islamic State Watch

            LOLZ

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              Islamic State Watch

              Just seen that Russia and Turkey dispute where the Russian plane crashed.

              The Türkmen in Syria are being strongly supported by ultra nationalists from Turkey. After watching the videos from the shooting down of the plane I thought I'd heard lots of Turkish.

              Russia has now imposed economic sanctions on Turkey and from January 1st Turkish citizens will need visas to enter Russia.

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                Islamic State Watch

                This popped up on my timeline.



                Overly simplistic but, you know, better than many options put forward by some media and politicians.

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                  Islamic State Watch

                  As I've said elsewhere, I think that point (2) in particular is problematic. Thinking on, I'll not sign up to (1) either. I don't know how else, apart from buying and smuggling, the Syrian revolutionaries are supposed to get weapons.

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                    Islamic State Watch

                    I do have a problem with (2) as it is suggests that only Gulf states are arming terrorists (and I will assume they mean those aside from ISIS as well).

                    I think that (1) is crucial.

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                      Islamic State Watch

                      How do you propose that Syrian revolutionaries get the weapons they need to fight Assad and Daesh?

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                        Islamic State Watch

                        Well, as I don't think that the Syrian revolutionaries are terrorists, I would be happy to supply them. The thing is that Turkey's border being porous is a huge issue presently not least with the ISIS oil being bought over it. Cut that route off and ISIS rely on internal tax-raising and racketeering which, of course, doesn't make life easier for Syrians in the short-term but I am not sure what presently would be good for the Syrians in the short-term.

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                          Islamic State Watch

                          I would happily supply them too. But neither of us has weapons to supply.

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                            Islamic State Watch

                            We are slightly going around in circles here and I am sure that it is either because I don't understand what your specific issue is or I don't understand situation as well as you. If you had to put out a suitably simplistic bullet point plan to put on Facebook - which appears to be the currency of protest and considered thought nowadays - what would yours be?

                            I am assuming that (1) you would keep the Turkish border open for the supply of weapons - which supports (4) - but also have ISIS oil and fighters going the other way at least - that somewhat negates (3). As for (2), if I am reading you right in the previous posts on this thread, you would want anyone involved in this proxy war pulling out of backing Assad, ISIS/ Daesh (I am not sure of the distinction between the two which is probably my ignorance) and, I assume, the Kurds?

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                              Islamic State Watch

                              Mine would primarily address what I believe to be the bigger issue of getting rid of Assad, and would call on those with weaponry to supply it to those fighting Assad and Daesh (no difference in the group we're talking about between Daesh and ISIS, just a different name). Get Russia, Iran and Hezbollah out of there. Take in as many refugees as want to come and make their lives here as good as possible.

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                                Islamic State Watch

                                Bored of Education wrote: This popped up on my timeline.



                                Overly simplistic but, you know, better than many options put forward by some media and politicians.
                                There's one missing. The drug trafficking one from Lebanon.

                                Google and you shall find even larger busts of Captagon heading to IS

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                                  Islamic State Watch

                                  https://scontent-lhr3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xtp1/v/t1.0-9/11062115_10153414809354751_2582489089008573313_n.j pg?oh=dbb1804ff3b75a51d0f01ce347eb1728&oe=56D8216A

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                                    Islamic State Watch

                                    TonTon: It seems to my reading of the situation in Syria that the groups that control the territory next to the Turkish border are daesh and the Kurds. How would you see keeping that border open as being supportive of the genuine opposition elsewhere?

                                    I have to say that while the ultimate end is hopefully an end to Assad and some form of peaceful future for Syria (or whatever nation states are formed out of the rubble of Iraq and Syria), at the moment I would see the biggest need is for an end to fighting. Bringing in more weapons just seems like a policy that brings in more death and suffering. Assad's forces are too strong for the revolutionary groups to force some swift denouement. Taking human issues as being the most important, then, I think a diplomatic approach is really the only one at this time, even if it means partition. The end of the Bosnian conflict was far from the "best" one politically or ethically, but it was the one that ended the mass killing and suffering, and therefore it was the right thing to do. Stop the fighting and then prosecute the war criminals.

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                                      Islamic State Watch

                                      ah/AE - you have left out the FSA-aligned Turkmen groups, though, for example.

                                      ah - Assad's forces are only "too strong for the revolutionary groups" because of Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, alongside "our" refusal to allow them any serious weaponry.

                                      My understanding is that those fighting Assad and Daesh don't accept the bona fides of any proposed negotiation at the moment. I don't think it's my job to tell them what to do, I think it's my job to give whatever support I can (very little) to them.

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                                        Islamic State Watch

                                        TonTon, I thought I'd mentioned the Turkmens, perhaps not in that context. Apologies. This group is strongly supported by many in Turkey, ranging from religious Sunnis to ultra nationalists. During the post invasion period in Iraq they appeared as a well armed militia and have extended their presence and influence into Syria. As the de facto fighting force of Turkey they are not to be underestimated.

                                        If the anti Assad forces still believe they can win militarily then they'll never negotiate, it's up to their backers to force them to sit down and do so. That's if those said backers want this.

                                        Like you say if anti Assad forces are given the weaponry to combat the air power of Assad and now Russia it could change the nature of the conflict. They have anti tank weapons but it's the SAMs that would be the temporary game changer. Then what would the Russian response be, more cruise missiles and carpet bombing from a safe altitude. Also what would happen to those weapons? IS appears to have got hold of significant amounts of weapons through smuggling, capturing or by being gifted them by various forces. How much do we believe that air drops of weapons by the USA accidently ended up in IS areas?

                                        All the powers have to force an end to the fighting much as they did in Bosnia or else this conflict is going to continue. Any bombing of IS or Assad or whoever else is only going to create a power vacuum leading to more conflict and many more civilian deaths.

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                                          Islamic State Watch

                                          http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/david-cameron-shouldnt-rush-vote-6915870

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                                            Islamic State Watch

                                            TonTon wrote: That Morning Star article is disgusting. No surprise, but still hideous.
                                            I have just read through it and am not sure what is disgusting about it.

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                                              Islamic State Watch

                                              Bored of Education wrote:
                                              Originally posted by TonTon
                                              That Morning Star article is disgusting. No surprise, but still hideous.
                                              I have just read through it and am not sure what is disgusting about it.
                                              Assad is murdering civilians at a rate ISIS could only dream of. Presenting him as the solution, or even part of the solution is repugnant.

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                                                Islamic State Watch

                                                Bloody hell, I missed that last bit. Thanks for poiting it out to me.

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                                                  Islamic State Watch

                                                  BBC piece here about the fighting, which has been going on for nearly a year now, between IS Afghan branch and the Taliban:

                                                  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-35123748
                                                  I didn't know about it before. Surprising stuff. As far as I can tell, it's not about any kind of doctrinal differences, just a dick-waving thing about who should be in charge in that part of the world. One bunch of barbarian misogynist thugs fighting another bunch, maybe with a local vs international flavour.

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                                                    Islamic State Watch

                                                    An interesting review of an interesting book

                                                    Presently, however, there is little sign of sense prevailing. No powerful state has a serious strategy to stop Assad’s war. So the jihadist threat will grow, despite the bombs thrown at it. Politicians should therefore arm themselves with a copy of The Syrian Jihad – at once the definitive guide to such groups and the most comprehensive blow-by-blow military account of the war thus far.

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