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    #51
    The 2015 UK General Election thread

    Duncan Gardner wrote:
    Originally posted by Jongudmund
    Hence why the Lib Dems pushed for AV in the hope that being everyone's second choice would work in their favour. Except that isn't an indicator of the second choice of individuals at all. That's an indicator of first choices and the LDs didn't get enough to place higher than 2nd
    Disagree. It's an indicator just not an exact measure of how well they would have done in a AV poll. In the real (ie FPTP) election they persuaded plenty of people to lend votes to try to keep either Tory or Labour out. In England, none of the smaller parties could manage that.
    I'm not sure it is that much of in indicator. That just shows all the people who chose Liberal Democrats as their first choice for whatever reason. A lot of their second places could have been where people were tactically voting against a dead cert candidate, but they didn't get enough votes. In constituencies with more than three candidates there's no telling how people would have gone once they'd voted for their favourite. In fact, people may have been more likely to vote for the candidate they really wanted rather than vote tactically, because they have an alternative vote to fall back on. If anything FPTP skews the results for the LDs because we think people vote tactically. If people don't have to vote tactically then the number of people voting for them could well drop.

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      #52
      The 2015 UK General Election thread

      Etienne wrote: The Rev George Hargreaves, leader of the Christian Party of Wales was poised to be the UKIP candidate for Coventry South, after the party persuaded the candidate elected by the local party to stand aside. Sadly for the bigot, this idea appears to have been shelved after Suzanne Evans their deputy chairman, seemingly unaware of his connection to UKIP, described as 'bonkers' his view that the 'satanic' Dragon symbol should be removed from the Welsh flag. This was nearly my first ever political scoop, sadly I was by 10 minutes the second person to make the connection.
      That would explain why their pre-election broadcast featured about 20 people climbing up a mountain to fly the St David's Cross at the top.

      Incidentally, Guy, thanks for the Wiki link. What a career this bloke has had. UKIP is/was/could still be his 4th political party.

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        #53
        The 2015 UK General Election thread

        I don't know anything about how people living abroad receive entitlement to vote. To my shame.

        Could LLR explain it to me, please?

        I live in Newark constituency, where we recently had a dry run in the form of a by-election. I fully expect to see about one-onehundredth of the interest in the vote in our constituency this time round.

        You know that the Ukips are going to get 15+ seats though. This country's full of the types of arseholes who will vote for them.

        I wonder what this election's Gillian Duffy moment will be.

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          #54
          The 2015 UK General Election thread

          I'm not sure how much I can explain.

          Basically, British expats have the right to vote in certain elections. I think the list is: national general elections, European elections and referenda. But not in local council elections and the like.

          It appears that you get to vote in the constituency where you were last registered; and your choice is either a postal vote, or a proxy vote. I'm not sure how easy the postal vote is to process, because they need to send the vote forms to me, and then I need to return them, all within a fairly narrow window before the actual election itself.

          But I think the gist is: we're still British citizens, so we get to vote on stuff that impacts us, which is the British national government.

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            #55
            The 2015 UK General Election thread

            Hello, LLR. If we're, um... less than entirely official in our current country of residence, can we still do that? The last general election was only a couple of weeks after I came out here, so that was rather easier for me to get a proxy in.

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              #56
              The 2015 UK General Election thread

              Felicity, I guess so wrote: Duncan's arguments about why I should vote for them anyway are convincing, but they have a handful of very strange people I've met on the Left on Tyneside and if it's one of them I mibbe won't
              Thanks Flick

              Like the other recently resurgent parties (ie UKIP and to an extent SNP) the Greens do have some procedures to assess potential GE candidates- they can't just join up and then get selected by wowing a handful of people. But I take your and TonTon's broad point: in that large number of people there will be some with views that might embarrass or worse.

              I suppose I'm contradicting myself to a point. I'd much rather we had STV elections which work well (administratively and achieving broad proprionality at least) in both parts of Ireland and in other countries. One of their advantages is that voters can rank candidates, giving the former a bit more influence than in closed-list systems (such as the last Euros where the parties decided in advance who their favored MEPs would be). Trouble is, in a near future STV General Election there would probably be only one Green candidate in each constituency, at least initially.

              Jongudmund wrote: In constituencies with more than three candidates there's no telling how people would have gone once they'd voted for their favourite. In fact, people may have been more likely to vote for the candidate they really wanted rather than vote tactically, because they have an alternative vote to fall back on. If anything FPTP skews the results for the LDs because we think people vote tactically. If people don't have to vote tactically then the number of people voting for them could well drop
              Again, I take your points and I'll admit that beyond disliking AV systems for anything more than a by-election (ie what happens when a STV system needs to replace one member rather than re-elect all five) I haven't thought too much about their implications. I think the numbers from 2010 suggest that, while there were six parties with a claim to be national across England (ie including BNP, UKIP and Greens), the latter three wouldn't have done that much better under AV. Partly, as Etienne said, because most people would be vary of giving a second preference to the first two who they saw as extremist or racist, and partly because the Greens' profile was too low to appeal to much more than a hard core. Add to that the 'Punch and Judy' factor of Tory and Labour rubbishing each other, and I think that explains why the LibDems would still do pretty well.

              What a career this bloke has had. UKIP is/was/could still be his 4th political party
              I've managed six as an actual campaigner however briefly. In date order- Alliance NI, Britsh and Irish Communists, Fine Gael (a girl I liked was active), SDP, Labour, Green. I also contributed to some UUP speeches etc. without actually joining

              The rumor that I flirted with the Tories in the late 80s is untrue, the only evidence being a photo in a SWP paper showing me reading the Telegraph sports page at a GCHQ demo...

              Kryvbas Gripper Rih wrote: You know that the Ukips are going to get 15+ seats though. This country's full of the types of arseholes who will vote for them
              Pretty much all polls for some months now suggest only about five. I think because in a lot of places in Southern England they're expected to come a respectable but distant second to the Tories as the LibDems fall back without Labour advancing that much (not least as they'll lose some votes to the Greens). Whereas in and around the Midlands and Northern English cities they're more likely to rack up lots of third places as the big two slug it out in marginals (good example being my local Black Country seats).

              Four seats could leave them in EIGHTH place in Westminster (behind not just the big three but also SNP, DUP, SF, maybe even PC...) Wonder how Nige will react to that?

              Comment


                #57
                The 2015 UK General Election thread

                OK here's a starter prediction of the arithmetic:

                Abstentionist

                Sinn Fein 5 (-)

                Potential Informal Deal

                Green 2 (+1 from LibDem in Bristol)
                SDLP 3 (-)
                Plaid 4 (+1 from LibDem in West Wales)
                UKIP 6 (+6 mainly in East Coast England)
                Unionist 10 (+1 from Alliance in Belfast and including one New Labourish independent)

                Sub-total 25

                Potential Coalition Partner

                LibDem 25-30 (-30ish including about 15 in Scotland, majority of the rest to Tory in English Shires)
                SNP 40-45 (+35ish, almost all the rest from Labour)

                Sub-total 70


                Big Two


                Which from the above leads to them sharing about 550. I'm going for 276-274 in Labour's favor. I stand to be corrected by our election experts but don't Tories need a 7% vote lead for an overall majority, and about 3% just to have more seats than Labour but short of a majority?

                In that scenario, the likeliest if messy deal is Labour-SNP coalition backed by some of the smaller parties in my second category. Both UKIP and LibDem might be stranded: too few seats to help the Tories, while Labour wouldn't need them?

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                  #58
                  The 2015 UK General Election thread

                  I can't see a Labour/SNP agreement lasting as long as the current coalition. If it happens I see more General Elections coming quick and fast.

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                    #59
                    The 2015 UK General Election thread

                    Of course, drawing conclusions from Irish history is a false analogy, but would it not be self-defeating for the SNP to enter a UK coalition, given their membership drive arose from the referendum? Surely outside backing for Labour would prove more politically astute in the long term?

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                      #60
                      The 2015 UK General Election thread

                      An agreement might be a good idea for SNP. Not sure about Labour.

                      I can imagine how a nationalist party propping-up Labour would be received in not just middle England.

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                        #61
                        The 2015 UK General Election thread

                        Luke R wrote: I can't see a Labour/SNP agreement lasting as long as the current coalition. If it happens I see more General Elections coming quick and fast
                        Perhaps. The Tories would be better placed to pay for them in that case, but bear in mind that a) they can pretty much always can call on more cash than Labour, yet b) they haven't won an overall majority in four attempts since 1992 despite other built in advantages (FPTP, media backing etc.)

                        I can imagine how a nationalist party propping-up Labour would be received in not just middle England
                        I daresay the Mail etc. will run plenty of 'Eck and Nicola eat dead English babies, Ant and Dec horrified' smears, but see above. The Tories are in long-term decline, losing much of their working-class and pensioner vote to UKIP while failing to convince middle-class voters that they'll benefit from tax cuts for the very rich.

                        Diable Rouge wrote: would it not be self-defeating for the SNP to enter a UK coalition, given their membership drive arose from the referendum? Surely outside backing for Labour would prove more politically astute in the long term?
                        Maybe, but I'm guessing they see a deal- however formal or informal- as only needing to last long enough to get them complete devolution or maybe even independence.

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                          #62
                          The 2015 UK General Election thread

                          The only thing Labour (or the Tories for that matter) could offer the SNP would be promises of further devolved powers. That in turn would necessitate taking further the idea of Scottish MPs not being able to vote on legislation related to England and Wales, and that could leave any such coalition government in a minority when it came to that. Which creates quite the conundrum.

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                            #63
                            The 2015 UK General Election thread

                            Duncan Gardner wrote: I daresay the Mail etc. will run plenty of 'Eck and Nicola eat dead English babies, Ant and Dec horrified' smears, but see above. The Tories are in long-term decline, losing much of their working-class and pensioner vote to UKIP while failing to convince middle-class voters that they'll benefit from tax cuts for the very rich.
                            I wont particularly disagree with that summary, but could that scenario result in a serious and irretrievable rise in English Nationalism?. And is that good for the UK?. I don't think it would be.

                            It might be good for the SNP in the short term because English nationalism would only help their own cause for independence but I'm against the dismantling of the union for unintended issues that will arise if it happened, one being English dominance, maybe not benign dominance either.

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                              #64
                              The 2015 UK General Election thread

                              Unless the 2010 Elections Act, or whatever it is called is revoked, there won't be quickfire elections, as it needs a 2/3 majority to call an election in under 5 years. In other words, both Lab and Con would need to agree that they would be best served by an election. Otherwise minority govts will be the order of the day, rather than coalition.

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                                #65
                                The 2015 UK General Election thread

                                Etienne wrote: Unless the 2010 Elections Act, or whatever it is called is revoked, there won't be quickfire elections, as it needs a 2/3 majority to call an election in under 5 years. In other words, both Lab and Con would need to agree that they would be best served by an election. Otherwise minority govts will be the order of the day, rather than coalition.
                                If Government becomes unworkable or immensely unpopular I can see a 2/3 majority being won. Motions of no confidence and whatnot.

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                                  #66
                                  The 2015 UK General Election thread

                                  A no-confidence motion wouldn't be sufficient, that would just mean the government would have to stand down and another one formed from the same MPs

                                  How do you envisage the 2/3 majority arising? From Tories and Labour uniting to vote for it - both believing the polls would favour them? Or for enough people from one party defying the whip?

                                  Comment


                                    #67
                                    The 2015 UK General Election thread

                                    Luke R wrote: I wont particularly disagree with that summary, but could that scenario result in a serious and irretrievable rise in English Nationalism?. And is that good for the UK?. I don't think it would be
                                    Adding to my points above, I reckon both the big two parties and the UK in its current form are all set for a fall (and I say that as an er, ethnic Ulster unionist albeit voting Green). I switched to supporting Yes in the Scottish Referendum because I felt that the near-certainty of the Tories dismantling public services outweighs the risk of an uncertain Scottish currency.

                                    I'm against the dismantling of the union for unintended issues that will arise if it happened, one being English dominance, maybe not benign dominance either
                                    Do you really think that's a problem? England already has benign domination (economic, cultural) over the Irish Republic, Germany over Switzerland and so on.

                                    Agree with Etienne on the low likelihood of an imminent follow-up election.

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                                      #68
                                      The 2015 UK General Election thread

                                      Etienne wrote: Or for enough people from one party defying the whip?
                                      It's not beyond the realms of possibility is it?. In the event of a minority government which cant govern and the political crisis that would ensue.

                                      I mean, I think Labour MP's are less openly rebellious but even they (under pressure from their unhappy-the SNP-are-propping-them-up-constituents) would seriously consider it.

                                      Comment


                                        #69
                                        The 2015 UK General Election thread

                                        Luke, are you assuming that the result of a second election is much more likely to result in an overall majority? An alternative approach is to accept that the rise of UKIP, SNP and Greens (perhaps in time with a LibDem revival) means that the big two might have to get used to minority, coalitions and all their implications. In which case a big electoral reform might seem attractive to one of them. Or even possibly both...

                                        Anyway, wouldn't Labour MPs in your example prefer their constituents whining about Scotland to the risk of losing the snap election and losing them?

                                        Comment


                                          #70
                                          The 2015 UK General Election thread

                                          Duncan Gardner wrote:

                                          Do you really think that's a problem?
                                          Maybe not in the short term, but a little further down the line, perhaps.

                                          Comment


                                            #71
                                            The 2015 UK General Election thread

                                            Not beyond the bounds of possibility, no, but equally not "general elections coming quick and fast".

                                            The scenario you posit, where the Tories want to bring about another GE, and Labour backbenchers go along with it seems pretty unlikely.

                                            It requires those Labour MPs to feel more of their voters will be upset by them being propped up by an SNP who they agree with on many issues than would be upset with the Tory party getting back into government.

                                            I think that misjudges the priorities of Labour voters.

                                            Comment


                                              #72
                                              The 2015 UK General Election thread

                                              Luke R wrote: Maybe not in the short term, but a little further down the line, perhaps
                                              But that's not what has happened in the Irish and Swiss examples I suggested. Why would it happen in Scotland?

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                                                #73
                                                The 2015 UK General Election thread

                                                Duncan Gardner wrote: Luke, are you assuming that the result of a second election is much more likely to result in an overall majority?
                                                Not much more, it would be a gamble I guess, like '74.

                                                An alternative approach is to accept that the rise of UKIP, SNP and Greens (perhaps in time with a LibDem revival) means that the big two might have to get used to minority, coalitions and all their implications. In which case a big electoral reform might seem attractive to one of them. Or even possibly both...

                                                Anyway, wouldn't Labour MPs in your example prefer their constituents whining about Scotland to the risk of losing the snap election and losing them?
                                                Sure, but if the demand is there and government is unworkable, enough could go with what is right rather than looking after number one.

                                                The landscape has certainly changed, the last models to come close were forty years ago but there is so much different from then. I'm not against coalition or electoral reform so what will be will be.

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                                                  #74
                                                  The 2015 UK General Election thread

                                                  Not much more, it would be a gamble I guess, like '74.
                                                  Which is my point, the 2/3 majority requires one of the big two plus substantial numbers of the other to make the same gamble simultaneously.

                                                  Comment


                                                    #75
                                                    The 2015 UK General Election thread

                                                    The main reason Labour fear the English votes for English laws is the current electoral system which has worked in their favour by a combination of Scotland and Wales and their urban base. If the constitutional settlement demanded by the SNP was also to include PR for Westminster, the spectacle of the Tories running Westminster on their own disappears, pretty much for ever. But so it does for Labour too. Hence why they're deeply ambivalent.

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