USA Presidential election 2016

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

USA Presidential election 2016

ad hoc, this thread is precisely because it's two years to the week before the Presidential election; I always find one of the most fascinating things about that race (especially when it's in a year that both parties have to find a candidate) is how often, even two years out, no-one had ever heard of the people who eventually end up being the main protagonists. I mentioned Sarah Palin above, but thinking about it, it would be just as true to say that at this point in 2006 no-one had heard of Barack Obama (and few outside of Arizona had heard of John McCain).

It would be a good OTF spotters' badge if someone could name, today, their equivalents from either side who might end up getting nominated in 2016.

[Cal Alamein]

USA Presidential election 2016

ursus arctos wrote: It makes a tremendous difference to those of us who live here.

Indeed. It will definitely be the lesser of two evils.

To EEG, I'd love a Warren candidacy, but the dem and corporate big boys will do their best to stuff that. If she did actually win, AND stuck to her guns, she may end up suffering same fate as JFK.

[Cal Alamein]

USA Presidential election 2016

Rogin the Armchair Fan wrote:

It would be a good OTF spotters' badge if someone could name, today, their equivalents from either side who might end up getting nominated in 2016.

I'm a pessimist when it comes to handicapping politics. I'd be quite content w/ HRC winning in 2016, even though it would be in many ways the usual bullshit that totally favors the wealthy and powerful.

My fear is that the dems do not have a winnable backup candidate should something befell HRC (Fox News and other crazies could easily make that a reality). She is not young and two yrs is a long time away.

Should she get the nomination, I am confident she'd win the election. The electoral college is in her favor and she'd hopefully get out a higher % of the women vote.

I always cheer for a Buchanan, Paul, Bachman, Santorum, Tancredo, Keyes, Cain, or other whackjob to somehow get the Repuke spot , but as posted earlier, it is always a more "mainstream" candidate who shifts his position more rightward to generally satisfy the sick and selfish base.

Would love to see Christie, Walker, Cruz, and others get the nod. However, I will predict an unsurprising matchup of HRC v. Jeb B. While many on the left will cheer as they believe the "Bush" name is poison, I am concerned as A) americans have very short memories (even if attack ads are pounded relentlessly into our heads) B) he is far smoother than his brother and if he doesn't completely sell his soul to the tea party, has the chance to create an actual "kinder and gentler" repuke party.

Electoral-wise, this would easily give Bush Florida, and he can use his Spanish in the blueish states of NM, CO, NV.

Will his support of the Satanic Common Core Curriculum help or hurt him?

[ursus arctos]

USA Presidential election 2016

Rogin, who is "no one"?

You? The average Brit?

Both McCain and Obama were well known to people who care about U S politics in 2006. Obama was known nationally from the time he gave hopes speech at the 2004 convention, and McCain has been a national figure since he was released by the North Vietnamese.

As to Warren, I'm not at all sure that she will even run, as her chances look rather better in a post-Hilary world. If she does run, she will be crushed by the immense wait of the financial sector in our highest bidder system, given that they consider her to be the Antichrist. She will also be monstered as a product of affirmative action, even though her Cherokee heritage played at most a tiny role in her rise.

The fundamental problem continues to be that the American public are hopelessly reactionary by OTF standards.

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

USA Presidential election 2016

How will Obama's legacy - whatever that is - affect who the Dems choose? Will their candidate want his backing, for example, and want to be seen as carrying on the work of the last 8 years (which I presume Clinton would have to do, at least in respect of his first term), or will a candidate emerge who will have to attack Obama's administration as much as his/her opponent?

This is why I love US elections like the one 2016's going to be. In the UK we normally only get a change of party leadership after an election, and then only on the losing side. In the US you get to do all that - which is often the most fascinating part of any electoral system, with all the bitter in-fighting exposed - before the election, ON BOTH SIDES, before the actual election itself has even begun!

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

USA Presidential election 2016

ursus, oh I'm definitely talking about me, and I'm arguably more interested/informed than an "average Brit". Our general exposure to and therefore understanding of who's who in American politics goes:

1. The President
2. The First Lady
3. The Secretary of State (depending on how active they've been)
4. Any mayor or governor who's been done for taking cocaine and driving around firing a gun out of his car window or that sort of thing.

Talking of former Secs of State, what happened to Condoleeza? Is anyone in the GOP planning to fund a campaign from her?

[Cal Alamein]

USA Presidential election 2016

Rogin the Armchair Fan wrote:

Talking of former Secs of State, what happened to Condoleeza? Is anyone in the GOP planning to fund a campaign from her?

She's helping decide the final four of college football.

Not a prayer as a prez candidate - she is ridiculously thin-skinned and not the type to shake hands and chow down turkey legs in Waterloo, Iowa.

[ad hoc]

USA Presidential election 2016

I believe even OTF (via Toro) had spotted Obama as the candidate to beat by 2004 at the latest. It's one of those OTF folkloric things like Hofzinser discovering Franz Ferdinand.

[Borracho]

USA Presidential election 2016

Cal Alamein wrote:

It makes a tremendous difference to those of us who live here.

Indeed. It will definitely be the lesser of two evils.

I'm not disputing that the Republicans are even worse. I'm saying Clinton is a mind-numbingly crap, depressingly poor candidate, firmly wedged up the holes of Wall Street and Aipac.

[matt j]

USA Presidential election 2016

ad hoc wrote: I believe even OTF (via Toro) had spotted Obama as the candidate to beat by 2004 at the latest. It's one of those OTF folkloric things like Hofzinser discovering Franz Ferdinand.

Ha! I remember both of those threads.

I can't remember any time I've ever felt more certain about who would be the next president than I am right now. It's gonna be Hillary.

But two years is a long time, and strange stuff happens.

The Republicans will have to put up a 'crazy enough' but 'not too crazy' candidate. I don't see Santorum (2nd place finisher from 2012 - the 'pattern' candidate) ever getting a 'not crazy' label.

So a Mitt Romney re-run? Scott Walker? Jeb? I feel like there might be another Republican Governor out there I'm forgetting.

But by election time, I don't see any Republican really having a chance in a national election. It would have to be someone completely outside the politics of the last 6 years.

Any Republican ex-generals out there in the wings?

[Incandenza]

USA Presidential election 2016

ad hoc wrote: I believe even OTF (via Toro) had spotted Obama as the candidate to beat by 2004 at the latest. It's one of those OTF folkloric things like Hofzinser discovering Franz Ferdinand.

I believe that the poster sometimes known as abedi first mentioned him, and then there were a lot of posts from JV about him. I haven't looked to see who first floated him as a 2008 candidate.

[Southport Zeb]

USA Presidential election 2016

Rogin the Armchair Fan wrote:
Talking of former Secs of State, what happened to Condoleeza? Is anyone in the GOP planning to fund a campaign from her?

She's part of the committee selecting teams for the College Football Playoff.

[San Bernardhinault]

USA Presidential election 2016

As an aside on Warren, if age is a problem for HRC, it's a problem for Warren, too. Clinton's 67, Elizabeth Warren is 65.

In a way, I quite like the idea of a slightly older President after the last three seemed to be a cult of youth and cult of the new, of the unknown and exciting.

I feel it's time for a reminder that people used to think a weight of experience was actually beneficial for a candidate, rather than just ammunition of 20 years of slight changes of opinion.

[Land Waster]

USA Presidential election 2016

How will Clinton go down with the Jewish vote (if there is such an en masse block)? Hasn't she made notorious anti-Semitic comments over the years?

[ursus arctos]

USA Presidential election 2016

I have no clue what you are talking about (see, e.g., Calx' accusation that she is in AIPAC's pocket, but given that she won her last NY senate race by almost 40 points, I don't expect that to be a problem).

[ad hoc]

USA Presidential election 2016

Yes, if the Jewish vote can be assumed to be broadly pro-occupation (which is, increasingly, actually not a great assumption) then they must love Hilary. She's pretty much AIPAC's candidate.

[Cal Alamein]

USA Presidential election 2016

Other than Pat Buchanan (who is not a serious candidate), is there a serious presidential candidate of either party who would tell AIPAC to fuck off?

[ad hoc]

USA Presidential election 2016

Well there's telling AIPAC to fuck off and taking AIPAC's line and running with it. There must be a middle ground, if the mental US political/media attutude to Israel needs to appeased

[Gangster Octopus]

USA Presidential election 2016

Incandenza wrote:

I believe even OTF (via Toro) had spotted Obama as the candidate to beat by 2004 at the latest. It's one of those OTF folkloric things like Hofzinser discovering Franz Ferdinand.

I believe that the poster sometimes known as abedi first mentioned him, and then there were a lot of posts from JV about him. I haven't looked to see who first floated him as a 2008 candidate.

abedi.

[Guy Profumo]

USA Presidential election 2016

White House of Cards?

(Sorry. Can't think of a better [worse?] pun than that off the top of my head.)

[WOM]

USA Presidential election 2016

How 'bout "Local kook wastes time and money".

[matt j]

USA Presidential election 2016

"Clown car gets more crowded"

I think we definitely deserve competing threads for this election, btw.

[Incandenza]

USA Presidential election 2016

In a trademark lack of irony or self-awareness, Trump played Neil Young's "Keep on Rockin' in the Free World" after his announcement.

[ursus arctos]

USA Presidential election 2016

How the Trump fortune is grounded in a Klondike Brothel

“I would advise respectable women traveling alone, or with an escort, to be careful in their selection of hotels at Bennett,” he wrote. “For single men the Arctic has excellent accommodations as well as the best restaurant in Bennett, but I would not advise respectable women to go there to sleep as they are liable to hear that which would be repugnant to their feelings – and uttered, too, by the depraved of their own sex.” Apparently, it wasn’t just Trump’s assortment of poultry dishes that brought in the crowds.

[ursus arctos]

USA Presidential election 2016

The Trump announcement is first rate performance art.

When Mexico sends its people, they're not sending their best. They're not sending you. They're not sending you. They're sending people that have lots of problems, and they're bringing those problems with us. They're bringing drugs. They're bringing crime. They're rapists.

There's lots more.