USA Presidential election 2016

[Rogin the Armchair fan]

Have I missed a thread that discusses this? Only with the mid-term elections over (Republicans winning both houses) and the certainty that Obama won't be President in 2017 (he has to stand down), it's around about now that the juices normally start stirring as to who could be lined up, isn't it?

It was about now in 2006 that the world first heard about Sarah Palin, for example.

Who are the leading Republican likely candidates? And, indeed, who are the likely Democrat ones? Is it an assumed shoe-in that Hilary Clinton's going to be their candidate, finally, this time? Come on America, let us know which bat-shit crazy loons you're proposing to elect as leaders of the free world this time, let's have a poke around them.

[stereojet]

USA Presidential election 2016

It'll be Clinton v either Jeb Bush, Rand Paul or Christie (the fat NJ republican) if you ask me.

[ursus arctos]

USA Presidential election 2016

Yes, the Republican race is going to be much more interesting than the Democratic one, which Hillary will win barring an epic meltdown (whether or not she has to face a serious primary challenge from the Left in the guise of Elizabeth Warren).

Lots of Republicans think that they have a shot, including those mentioned above, Mitt Romney (yes, that one), senators like Marco Rubio (Florida), Bobby Jindal (Louisiana) and Ted Cruz (Texas), and governors like Scott Walker (Wisconsin) and Rick Perry (Texas).

Some data based on betting markets.

[anton pulisov]

USA Presidential election 2016

Clinton vs Bush would be the ultimate name recognition election, and would surely therefore be a walkover for the former?

[ursus arctos]

USA Presidential election 2016

Hillary is likely to win against anyone, but it is fascinating to me how many of my countrypeople seem to have completely forgotten about both Bushes.

[San Bernardhinault]

USA Presidential election 2016

I suspect that it will come down to Scott Walker and Jeb Bush. The Republicans prefer Governors to Senators, really. And Walker is the dreamy, undefeated hope of the economic right wing. Bush is the safe choice - of the "No Republican ticket has won without the name Bush or Nixon on it since 1952" brigade.

For all the noise, the more visible right wingers like Cruz and Paul are still too toxic amongst the general public for even the Republican Party to consider.

[ursus arctos]

USA Presidential election 2016

But that's not how the primary system works (even though the establishment changed it to make it more "rational" and less subject to the whims of the wingnut "base").

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

USA Presidential election 2016

hilary is old though. Really really old. Reagan old, if not quite mcCain old, or bob dole old. But very old nonetheless.

how on earth is the Clinton/bush thing even an active possibility?

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

USA Presidential election 2016

Rick Perry (Texas).

Yay! what about that hilarious insane black guy, can we have him again? or that italian american catholic fundamentalist, with a horde of communist italian relatives, who were expecting no show jobs if he got elected?

[San Bernardhinault]

USA Presidential election 2016

It's how they ended up with "safe" Romney over "insane" Santorum and Perry and Paul last time.

The primary system isn't rational and panders to the base, but even the base doesn't, in the end, usually go with the most unelectable choice.

[ursus arctos]

USA Presidential election 2016

Ah, I think I misread your OP.

Yes, I agree that Bush and Walker are the most likely nominees.

But the more "entertaining" ones will be around for all of the debates, etc.

There's also a better chance that we will end up with a wingnut third party movement than we have had in quite some time, especially if they feel "betrayed" over immigration reform.

I doubt that they will use "Dixierep", though.

[Slightly Brown]

USA Presidential election 2016

As ever, the Republican primaries will be grand theatre; that howling-at-the-moon, there-goes-another-soul stuff which has become their speciality.

Normally (pre-2012) they'd mostly lurch rightward to beat the competition, before running frantically back to the middle in time for the election. Alas, most of them are already out there like fuqing Pluto, so God knows where they will go this time. Ted Cruz will be particular good fun.

Ted earlier:

[ursus arctos]

USA Presidential election 2016

how on earth is the Clinton/bush thing even an active possibility?

Our politics have become so toxic that the only types of candidates are members of dynasties, wingnuts, and the entitled entrenched.

And given that the latter won't run because doing so imperils their sinecure, you end up with Bush v Clinton IV: this time one's a woman.

[Incandenza]

USA Presidential election 2016

The Awesome Berbaslug!!! wrote: Rick Perry (Texas).

Yay! what about that hilarious insane black guy, can we have him again?

I assume you mean Herman Cain. He hasn't said anything, but there is another black Republican that some people are hoping that people would run, Dr. Ben Carson, who was a legitimate talented neurosurgeon, but who got more fame recently for attacking the Affordable Care Act, using a fake quote from Lenin as saying that universal healthcare stems from communism and saying that it is the worst thing in the USA "since slavery."

[ursus arctos]

USA Presidential election 2016

Black Republican primary contestants are just the best.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

USA Presidential election 2016

Bush v Clinton IV: this time one's a woman.

hahahaha

Come on Herman. You can do it.

I love the way that the primary job of a black republican is to tell white people that slavery didn't happen and that racism doesn't exist.

[Borracho]

USA Presidential election 2016

What is the point of letting Hillary Clinton run again? She is an astoundingly shit candidate, a corporate arselicker machine politician of the worst kind.

[anton pulisov]

USA Presidential election 2016

Mike Gravel is probably my favourite nutter candidate of recent years. Lately he has been accusing the White House of withholding vital information on extra terrestrials. This man was a two term senator in... Alaska. There's something in the water up there.

You have to love his official campaign ad from 2008.

[G-Man]

USA Presidential election 2016

Rogin the Armchair Fan wrote: It was about now in 2006 that the world first heard about Sarah Palin, for example.

My memory is that she was a totally left-field (or far-right field) VP candidate announcement just before the primary in 2008.

[ursus arctos]

USA Presidential election 2016

Palin was elected as Governor of Alaska in 2006, and became known to people who follow politics in the Lower 48 as a result of that win.

It was nonetheless surprising that McCain picked her, and in doing so, he went against the advice of many of his advisors.

Calx, the reason you nominarpte HRC is because she will win, and the prospect of a Republican president with this Congress is literally terrifying.

[ad hoc]

USA Presidential election 2016

My sister in law (Mrs noj) has just posted pictures of all her Xmas decorations on facebook. I didn;t say anything about how overly early it all was, because, well you don't like to do you? But this thread? 2 years in advance of the election? I draw the line at this thread. Take it down and come back to us in 18 months.

[Elvis Wilbury takes a turn]

USA Presidential election 2016

I second that locomotion.

[Borracho]

USA Presidential election 2016

ursus arctos wrote: Calx, the reason you nominarpte HRC is because she will win, and the prospect of a Republican president with this Congress is literally terrifying.

If the Democrats genuinely can't find anyone better than Hillary Clinton, if she is truly as good as it gets, then it's time to stop getting excited/worried about what happens in US presidential elections.

[ursus arctos]

USA Presidential election 2016

It makes a tremendous difference to those of us who live here.

[Evariste Euler Gauss]

USA Presidential election 2016

ursus, why do you think it a foregone conclusion that Hillary would defeat any challenge by Elizabeth Warren? (Some obvious guesses occur to me, but I'm curious as to which of them is right!) From this side of the Atlantic, EW looks like one of the most impressive politicians America has produced for a long time, though I must confess I base that view on one obviously sympathetic profile of her which I read recently.