That would break the sacrosanct county boundaries in many areas.
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Originally posted by Diable Rouge View PostPerhaps slightly premature, but I'll begin my election preview by looking at the Munster constituencies:
Kerry:
God may or may not have created the weather, but he certainly smiled on the Healy-Rae clan last year - unlikely both will get elected next time, with FG favourite to take Danny's seat. Toireasa Ferris should retain her father's mandate. FG 2 (+1), FF 1, SF 1, Ind 1 (-1)
Waterford:
Again, a likely Independent loss here, as Halligan is punished for his escapades with Shane Ross. FG 2 (+1), FF 1, SF 1, Ind All 0 (-1)
Tipperary:
Much as I would love Lowry to miss out, he'll likely top the poll again. Improbable that three Independents will be elected again, and Alan Kelly is in real danger here. FF 2 (+1), Ind 2 (-1), FG 1 (+1)
Clare:
No change seems the most probable outcome here. FG 2, FF 1, Ind 1
Limerick County:
Alongside Cork North-West, arguably the most boring Dáil constituency. Will only be interesting if FF run a second candidate, but for now, it's FG 2, FF 1.
Limerick City:
The mercurial Willie O'Dea is now FF's longest serving TD, since 1982. Seems likely that Labour's Jan O'Sullivan will lose out, and given that Michael Noonan is unlikely to stand, I'll give this extra seat to FF. FF 2 (+1), FG 1, SF 1, Lab 0 (-1)
Cork North West:
Nothing to see here - FF 2, FG 1.
Cork South West:
The anti-Independent tide is likely to favour FG again here: FG 2 (+1), FF 1, Ind 0 (-1).
Cork East:
Labour may well survive on this occasion. FF 1, FG 1, Lab 1, SF 1
Cork North Central:
Could be interesting if FF run two here, but for now, I predict no change. FF 1, FG 1, SF 1, Solidarity-PBP 1.
Cork South Central:
The "group of death", with Coveney, Martin and Michael McGrath all elected here last time. Jerry Buttimer could eliminate the latter, but unlikely. FF 2, FG 1, SF 1
Running total after Munster: FG 16 (+4), FF 15 (+2) , SF 6, Ind 4 (-4), Lab 1 (-2), Sol-PBP 1
Ghanks a lot DR would also be very handy to have a quick guide to what each party stands for these days in the post neoliberal environment. What are the differences perceived and actual between FF, FG, Labour, Sinn Fein and do all the Independents stand in the same place ideologically?
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Originally posted by Nefertiti2 View PostGhanks a lot DR would also be very handy to have a quick guide to what each party stands for these days in the post neoliberal environment. What are the differences perceived and actual between FF, FG, Labour, Sinn Fein and do all the Independents stand in the same place ideologically?
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Originally posted by Duncan Gardner View PostDR- so the boundaries should stay as they are because they always have been? As I suggested hardly democratic...
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Originally posted by Diable Rouge View PostThese days, the main difference between FG and FF is class, as Fine Gael tend to court more middle-class urban professionals and rural farmers, whereas FF have more working-class supporters. Similarly, Labour had a mixture of middle-class social liberal and working-class voters, but in the last election, the latter mainly decamped to SF in rural constituencies, and Sol-PBP in Dublin. Independents generally are catch-all candidates, building bases by micro-managing specific local issues.
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- Mar 2008
- 20753
- Black Country Green Belt
- Crusaders FC, Norn Iron, not forgetting Serendib
- Blueberry vodka Jaffa cake on marzipan base
Originally posted by Diable Rouge View PostThe Constitution mandates that every TD should represent 20-30,000 voters, so after each Census, seats are generally removed from Western constituencies and allocated to those in Dublin and the commuter belt
In any case, the county boundaries aren't as sacrosanct as you claim. The Sligo and Leitrim constituency also includes parts of Donegal and Cavan (which are also in a separate province).
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Originally posted by Nefertiti2 View PostThanks a lot. So what are the key policy differences (if any) between FG and FF?
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Ruth Dudley Edwards briefly threatens to talk sense in an FT article, outlining the GFA, Varadkar's election and the NI party divisions over Brexit as staging posts in North-South relations, but then goes over the edge, describing Coveney as a rabid nationalist in thrall to SF, backs the tiresome Ray Bassett, and suggests a "free-trade Brexit" Anglo-Irish relationship (your guess is as good as mine):
https://amp.ft.com/content/eabdd85c-...1-794ce08b24dc
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Moving onto Leinster now:
Louth:
Will SF retain two seats without Adams on the ballot paper? FF appear too far back to take advantage. FG 2, SF 2, FF 1.
Meath West:
Again, no change seems likeliest. FF 1, FG 1, SF 1.
Meath East:
SF will view this as a likely gain, with FG the probable victims in Helen McEntee. FF 1, FG 1 (-1), SF 1 (+1).
Longford-Westmeath:
The long career of Willie Penrose is likely to be ended by SF's Paul Hogan. FF 1, FG 1, Ind 1, SF 1 (+1), Lab 0 (-1)
Laois:
Rather predictable division of the spoils in prospect. FF 1, FG 1, SF 1.
Offaly:
Can John Leahy make Renua relevant again - in a word, no. FF 1, FG 1, SF 1.
Carlow-Kilkenny:
Another meat-and-two-veg rural constituency. FF 2, FG 2, SF 1.
Kildare North:
Despite national stagnation, Catherine Murphy should be safe for the Soc Dems. FG could gain here. FG 2 (+1), FF 1 (-1), Soc Dems 1.
Kildare South:
No change here, especially with this being the Ceann Comhairle's constituency. FF 2, FG 1.
Wicklow:
Will Stephen Donnelly be punished for defecting to FF? Probably not. FF 2, FG 2, SF 1.
Wexford:
Brendan Howlin should hang on, bar an apocalyptic meltdown, but Mick Wallace might get the axe. FG 2, FF 1, Lab 1, SF 1 (+1), Ind 0 (-1).
Leinster summary: FG 16, FF 14 (-1), SF 10 (+3), Ind 1 (-1), Lab 1 (-1), Soc Dem 1.
National running total:
FG 32 (+4)
FF 29 (+1)
SF 16 (+3)
Ind 5 (-5)
Lab 2 (-3)
Sol-PBP 1
Soc Dems 1Last edited by Diable Rouge; 25-11-2017, 14:51.
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Regular SBP/Red C poll has just been released:
FG 27% (-2)
FF 26% (+1)
SF 16% (+2)
Ind 10% (-2)
Lab 6% (-)
Green 4% (-)
Ind All 4% (-)
Soc Dems 3% (+1)
Sol-PBP 3% (-1)
Renua 1% (+1)
Could definitely see the Lab-Green-Soc Dems bloc going into coalition with one of the major parties, even if only delivering 10-12 TDs.
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Candidates selected by each party thus far:
FF 12
Greens 11
Labour 8
Soc Dems 8
FG 4
Renua 3
SF 2
Ind 1
Greens and Soc Dems have selected more female than male candidates:
https://adriankavanaghelections.org/...-constituency/
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Whistle-stop tour of Connacht-Ulster:
Galway West:
Independent Catherine Connolly faces defeat to Trevor O'Clochartaigh (SF): FG 2, FF 1, Ind 1 (-1), SF 1 (+1).
Galway East:
No change. FF 1, FG 1, Ind 1.
Roscommon/Galway:
An FG gain from Denis Naughten. FF 1, FG 1 (+1), Ind 1 (-1).
Mayo:
Status quo. FF 2, FG 2.
Sligo/North Leitrim:
FG gain prospects stymied by SF competition for Leitrim vote. FF 2, FG 1, SF 1.
Donegal:
Reversion to two-candidate strategy sees SF gain. FF 2, SF 2 (+1), FG 1, Ind 0 (-1).
Cavan-Monaghan:
SF gain off FG, after almost doing so last year. FF 2, SF 2 (+1), FG 1 (-1).
Connacht-Ulster total: FF 11, FG 9, SF 6 (+2), Ind 3 (-3).
Running total:
FG 41 (+4)
FF 38 (+1)
SF 22 (+5)
Ind 8 (-8)
Lab 2 (-3)
Sol-PBP 1
Soc Dem 1Last edited by Diable Rouge; 25-11-2017, 20:34.
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Have finally summoned up the energy to tackle Dublin:
Dublin Fingal:
One of the two remaining Labour seats in Dublin may go to FG: FG 2 (+1), FF 1, Ind 1, SF 1, Lab 0 (-1)
Dublin Bay North:
Aodhán O'Riordáin may regain his seat, at Finian McGrath's expense. FF 1, FG 1, Ind 1 (-1), Lab 1 (+1), SF 1.
Dublin Bay South:
No change: FG 2, FF 1, Green 1.
Dublin Central:
Speculation that Pascal Donohue could lose his seat, but will Soc Dems or FF capitalise? FF 1 (+1), Ind 1, SF 1, FG 0 (-1).
Dublin Mid-West:
Home constituency of the Tánaiste, but Gino Kenny seems most vulnerable. FG 2 (+1), FF 1, SF 1, PBP 0 (-1).
Dublin North-West:
FF gain from FG likely. FF 1 (+1), SF 1, Soc Dems 1, FG 0 (-1)
Dublin Rathdown:
Greens vulnerable to a second FG candidate here. FG 2 (+1), Ind 1, Green 0 (-1).
Dublin South Central:
FF gain from PBP. FF 1 (+1), FG 1,, Ind 1, SF 1, Sol-PBP 0 (-1).
Dublin South West:
Katherine Zappone could lose out here. FG 2 (+1), FF 1, SF 1, Sol-PBP 1, Ind 0 (-1).
Dublin West:
Leo to top the poll, Joan to go for a Burton. FF 1, FG 1, SF 1 (+1), Sol-PBP 1, Lab 0 (-1).
Dún Laoghaire:
Elected 3 FG last time due to then CC, FF to take one in "real" circumstances. FG 2 (-1), FF 1 (+1), Sol-PBP 1.
Dublin total: FG 15 (+1), FF 10 (+ 4), SF 8 (+1), Ind 5 (-2), Sol-PBP 3 (-2), Green 1 (-1), Lab 1 (-2), Soc Dem 1.Last edited by Diable Rouge; 26-11-2017, 17:09.
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Originally posted by Diable Rouge View PostWhistle-stop tour of Connacht-Ulster:
Galway West:
Independent Catherine Connolly faces defeat to Trevor O'Clochartaigh (SF): FG 2, FF 1, Ind 1 (-1), SF 1 (+1).
Galway East:
No change. FF 1, FG 1, Ind 1.
Roscommon/Galway:
An FG gain from Denis Naughten. FF 1, FG 1 (+1), Ind 1 (-1).
Mayo:
Status quo. FF 2, FG 2.
Sligo/North Leitrim:
FG gain prospects stymied by SF competition for Leitrim vote. FF 2, FG 1, SF 1.
Donegal:
Reversion to two-candidate strategy sees SF gain. FF 2, SF 2 (+1), FG 1, Ind 0 (-1).
Cavan-Monaghan:
SF gain off FG, after almost doing so last year. FF 2, SF 2 (+1), FG 1 (-1).
Connacht-Ulster total: FF 11, FG 9, SF 6 (+2), Ind 3 (-3).
Running total:
FG 41 (+4)
FF 38 (+1)
SF 22 (+5)
Ind 8 (-8)
Lab 2 (-3)
Sol-PBP 1
Soc Dem 1
Sadly Catherine Connolly is basically completely useless. Her heart is in the right place, but that's not really enough. BTW Noel Grealish is basically the most galway looking man in the world. that look is very popular in east galway.
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Trawl of Dept of Justice in effort to avoid election finds 2015 e-mail from Tánaiste's secretary, stating she has "noted" the e-mail describing the legal strategy against McCabe - so clearly, either Fitzgerald goes, or Leo will be visiting Michael D on Wednesday morning:
https://mobile.twitter.com/SarahBard...17890969767937
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https://twitter.com/SarahBardon/stat...19228801683459
Department of Justice trawl also shows two emails sent to Tanaiste in July 2015 advising her of media queries on the legal strategy against McCabe and advising her how to respond if questioned on this subject
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The fascinating thing is that Fine Gael are prepared to attach their entirely political survival to the behaviour of the garda high command. That's fucking insane. At some point during this maurice McCabe fucking fiasco, any lunatics with any sense or even vague talent for self preservation, would just have said fuck it, The Garda high command are bastards, lets burn those fuckers down before they take us with them. Fire everyone involved and copy all the relevant parts of the Patten commission, and sort out the gardai properly.
Whatever would have come out of that, is going to come out anyway, but this way we'd get a fucking proper police force, and not the really fucked up mess we have at the moment. Fine Gael would also have got credit for reforming the Gardai for a new generation, and looked like they were capable people who meant what they said, rather than just a bunch of talentless, spineless placeholders, who are happy to go home every day telling themselves, that nothing caught fire today. Today was a good day.
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