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    #51
    The 2016 Irish election is over!

    FF 211
    Ind/Oth 197
    FG 175
    SF 136
    Lab 44

    Comment


      #52
      The 2016 Irish election is over!

      Rode Duivel wrote: Just to tell DG that the Greens' Grace O'Sullivan has now been strongly tipped to take the final South seat - if they can pull off two MEPs, they must surely be set for a return to the Dáil
      Excellent result if it happens

      Comment


        #53
        The 2016 Irish election is over!

        If an election were held today:

        FG 45
        FF 38
        SF 32
        Lab 2
        Oth 41

        Comment


          #54
          The 2016 Irish election is over!

          Gilmore's resigning as Labour leader in a few minutes.

          Comment


            #55
            The 2016 Irish election is over!

            Yes, a motion had been put down at lunchtime, and he accepted the inevitable. In all likelihood, Joan Burton will be handed the baton, but the existential question is if you've effectively handed the working-class over to SF, can an Irish Labour party justify its existence?

            Comment


              #56
              The 2016 Irish election is over!

              Incidentally, the new leader won't be elected until the 4th of July - can the government really stumble on like this for five weeks?

              Comment


                #57
                The 2016 Irish election is over!

                Sinn Fein have made some serious gains in Dublin. They had the first two candidates in a number of areas and even secured over 50% of first-preference votes in Tallaght South and Clondalkin. Winning plenty of votes in working-class areas might not have surprised anyone, but the party managed to get around 10% of votes in middle-class areas around the county. The prominence of Pearse Doherty in the last year or so seems to have encouraged new voters in a way that numbskulls like Crowe, Ferris & O'Snodaigh couldn't manage during the boom.

                Two dis-spiriting aspects to the elections - Firstly, the fact that after all that's happened, Fianna Fáil can still rely on about 20% of the electorate giving them their vote. Secondly, the latest generation of the political families 'inheriting' their positions. Mary O'Rourke's son, Ray McSharry's nephew, Nicky McFadden winning her late sister's seat. Trading on the name. It's depressing.

                The country is in desperate need of it's elected members to bring something new to the table. The public seem happy to maintain the (failed) status quo.

                Comment


                  #58
                  The 2016 Irish election is over!

                  Ah Ray McSharry. The European Commissioner who earlier in his career torched his own lorry in Sligo town square, in an insurance scam. In broad daylight.

                  Comment


                    #59
                    The 2016 Irish election is over!

                    I can think of at least one former Fianna Fail taoiseach who burned down some of his own assets for the money, and who acquired an amusing nickname in certain circles as a result.

                    Sinn Fein topped the poll in Dundrum, which is frankly astonishing.

                    Comment


                      #60
                      The 2016 Irish election is over!

                      Outside Agent wrote: Sinn Fein have made some serious gains in Dublin. They had the first two candidates in a number of areas and even secured over 50% of first-preference votes in Tallaght South and Clondalkin. Winning plenty of votes in working-class areas might not have surprised anyone, but the party managed to get around 10% of votes in middle-cTelass areas around the county. The prominence of Pearse Doherty in the last year or so seems to have encouraged new voters in a way that numbskulls like Crowe, Ferris & O'Snodaigh couldn't manage during the boom.

                      Two dis-spiriting aspects to the elections - Firstly, the fact that after all that's happened, Fianna Fáil can still rely on about 20% of the electorate giving them their vote. Secondly, the latest generation of the political families 'inheriting' their positions. Mary O'Rourke's son, Ray McSharry's nephew, Nicky McFadden winning her late sister's seat. Trading on the name. It's depressing.

                      The country is in desperate need of it's elected members to bring something new to the table. The public seem happy to maintain the (failed) status quo.
                      Indeed, my hitherto anonymous local TD, Arthur Spring, seems to have become a prime mover today purely to preserve the local dynasty. FF were never going to just fold up the tent, but at least we appear to have moved to a multi-polar system, where no one bloc will win more than a quarter of the vote, even if all the current parties are as jaded as one another. Still, if anyone is going to shake up the system, they'd arguably want to plan their launch now - I can't see the coalition lasting long after the New Year at the rate of current events.

                      Comment


                        #61
                        The 2016 Irish election is over!

                        The Labour runners and riders:

                        Joan Burton: Popular with grassroots and the public, but age and cuts in social welfare count against her. Chances: 8/10

                        Alex White: The "official" candidate, but blamed for Shortall's departure, seen as too Dublin-centric, and associated with the heave. 6/10

                        Brendan Howlin: Prominent in the party, but a lightning rod for ire in Public Reform, his lifestyle has long been the subject of speculation, and generally seen as yesterday's man. 6/10

                        Alan Kelly: No ministerial experience, but the representative of "New Labour", and from a rural constituency - more likely to end up as deputy leader. 7/10

                        Comment


                          #62
                          The 2016 Irish election is over!

                          If people cared about Howlin's sex life he'd never have made it to the post of deputy leader, which he held when Labour was in opposition years ago.

                          Still, it's Burton's to lose. Mind you, I'm not sure why anyone would want the job at the moment. In any Irish coalition the smaller party always gets much more of a hiding than the bigger one, because most of the voters don't want to admit that they fucked up by voting FG or FF yet again.

                          Comment


                            #63
                            The 2016 Irish election is over!

                            Second preferences of Sinn Fein voters in the NI EuroParl election (where SDLP have conceded the third seat to UUP):

                            SDLP 42%
                            Alliance 6%
                            Green 2%

                            UUP, DUP, TUV, UKIP, NI21, Conservative combined 2%

                            Non-transfer 48%

                            PS to the Red Devil- are Labour electing a quota of 2.7 leaders?

                            Comment


                              #64
                              The 2016 Irish election is over!

                              No, that was just my ranking of their likely prospects. As for the voting system, all national members will have a vote, and show their preference according to the STV system.

                              The South constituency has finally been settled - one FF, one SF and two FG - but counting continues in Castlebar.

                              Comment


                                #65
                                The 2016 Irish election is over!

                                As we don't seem to have a thread on the Republic's national team, I will just leave this here.



                                I don't have a clue either.

                                Comment


                                  #66
                                  The 2016 Irish election is over!

                                  Increasing speculation that Burton may be elected unopposed, though a contest would better serve the health of the party.

                                  Comment


                                    #67
                                    The 2016 Irish election is over!

                                    John Gormley demonstrates clairvoyance.

                                    Comment


                                      #68
                                      The 2016 Irish election is over!

                                      It all appears over now, as Howlin stays on the sidelines, and Kelly rows in behind Burton. Although a comedy bid by Spring would prove a light relief sideshow ...

                                      Comment


                                        #69
                                        The 2016 Irish election is over!

                                        Gormley is entitled to lecture

                                        While Labour seemingly couldn't affect the cash in the budgets, they could have pushed through more progressive legislation
                                        Instead they have watched FG unwind what little progress the Greens had made: climate change legislation diluted & planning scandals buried

                                        Ireland desperately needs overhaul of the courts system as the law is now only accessible to the very rich and those with nothing to lose; company law needs a complete overhaul - there has been no reform on directors obligations despite the complete economic meltdown...

                                        Comment


                                          #70
                                          The 2016 Irish election is over!

                                          From the link to the John Gormley piece above:

                                          The problem is this: despite all the talk of preserving fairness and social-welfare rates etc, all of the FG/Labour budgets so far have been regressive. In other words, they have hit the poor harder than the wealthy. Contrast that with the record of the previous hated administration where every single budget was actually progressive, despite the severe cutbacks. This was due in no small part to the Green back-room team who went through every budget line to ensure as much fairness as possible.
                                          This guy is still away in cloud cuckoo land.

                                          Comment


                                            #71
                                            The 2016 Irish election is over!

                                            Apparently, the ESRI agree with him, which doesn't say much for the current regime. Anyway, White has declared, making it a straight DL v Old Labour shootout. Meanwhile, FF are divided over future overtures to SF, begging the question of the least palatable post-election outcome.

                                            Comment


                                              #72
                                              The 2016 Irish election is over!

                                              António Pulisão é um gênio wrote: From the link to the John Gormley piece above:

                                              The problem is this: despite all the talk of preserving fairness and social-welfare rates etc, all of the FG/Labour budgets so far have been regressive. In other words, they have hit the poor harder than the wealthy. Contrast that with the record of the previous hated administration where every single budget was actually progressive, despite the severe cutbacks. This was due in no small part to the Green back-room team who went through every budget line to ensure as much fairness as possible.
                                              This guy is still away in cloud cuckoo land.
                                              He's correct, actually.

                                              The net income-tax burden for the lower and middle classes virtually disappeared during their time in power, and the gap was plugged with transactional taxes on house purchases, which is a large part of what caused our subsequent meltdown. Income tax net of transfer payments, children's allowance etc. came down somewhat over that period for the upper classes (by income), but substantially less.

                                              Meanwhile, social welfare payments ad the minimum wage were raised. Social welfare probably at the cost of targeted employment and education schemes, and the overall effect of all of this was to widen inequality substantially, but you can't - with any respect for the facts - say the budget itself wasn't progressive.

                                              Comment


                                                #73
                                                The 2016 Irish election is over!

                                                Those are FF/PD things you are talking about. They gave monopoly money to everybody. I assumed Gormley was talking about FF/Green's post-crisis approach and contrasting it with FG/Labour's post-crisis approach.

                                                FF/Green brought in the universal social charge and lowered tax credits. Those are two very regressive changes.

                                                Comment


                                                  #74
                                                  The 2016 Irish election is over!

                                                  After a year of humming and hawing, Lucinda & Co are finally ready to launch as the Independent Alliance. With liberal economics only advocated by three major parties, clearly they've chosen the right agenda to attract the neutral.

                                                  Comment


                                                    #75
                                                    The 2016 Irish election is over!

                                                    Restart the PDs. Genius. Things looking great for Ireland.

                                                    Comment

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