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    #26
    The 2016 Irish election is over!

    Family dynasty, parish pump politician to chair banking inquiry.

    The bankers will be quaking in their boots.

    Comment


      #27
      The 2016 Irish election is over!

      Sinn Féin uncover a third Garda whistleblower.

      Comment


        #28
        The 2016 Irish election is over!

        Apropos of nothing, here's Eamonn Coghlan going nuts on the Vincent Browne show last night.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yuAlksupTgg&feature=youtu.be&a

        There was apparently another bit where he touched the arm of the Socialist Party woman sitting next to him and she exclaimed: "Get your hands off me!"

        Comment


          #29
          The 2016 Irish election is over!

          South:

          Not quite as geographically bonkers as MNW, but candidates are still theoretically expected to canvass from Bray Head to Slea Head. Fine Gael are running three here, Seán Kelly mopping up Kerry, Limerick and Clare, Deirdre Clune confined to Cork and Simon Harris the sweeper in Leinster. Fianna Fáil might as well have no official campaigners, with the semi-autonomous republic of Brian Crowley, and Fergal Hartley, an anti-pylon candidate contriving to poll behind Labour. The latter's Phil Prendergast has risen after calling for Gilmore's head, but she'll do well to finish ahead of Diarmuid O'Flynn. Finally, Seán O'Riada's daughter, Liadh Ni Riada, runs for Sinn Féin. Among the colourful no-shoppers are the Catholic Democrats, Direct Democracy and the National Independent Party.

          Verdict: FG 2, FF 1, SF 1.

          Comment


            #30
            The 2016 Irish election is over!

            Selected Ambient Works 85-92 wrote: Apropos of nothing, here's Eamonn Coghlan going nuts on the Vincent Browne show last night.

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yuAlksupTgg&feature=youtu.be&a

            There was apparently another bit where he touched the arm of the Socialist Party woman sitting next to him and she exclaimed: "Get your hands off me!"
            Surprisingly a bit better behaved on the NI equivalent this week, with Euro MPs Martina Anderson and Diane Dodds debating. Dodds (who grew up on a farm) failed to explain how the DUP would replace the 87% of agricultural subsidy income coming from Europe, while SF's Anderson seemed to be claiming that her party was both Euro-sceptic and committed to Europe.

            They declined offers from the pundits to chill out together over a coffee. Not very sisterly, indeed.

            Comment


              #31
              The 2016 Irish election is over!

              A number of Euro polls today, the upshot of which would mean SF making a cross-border clean sweep, and FF reduced to one MEP. If Labour really do poll only 7%, there could yet be a general election before the end of the year.

              Comment


                #32
                The 2016 Irish election is over!

                Dublin:

                As Eamon Gilmore appears to be entering his final week as Tánaiste, Lynn Boylan, who as Lynn Ní Bheaghlán only won 1,000 votes in South Kerry, looks set to top the poll. Brian Hayes also looks comfortable for FG, but Dublin could also prove ground zero for Micheal Martin, who would surely face a heave with failure here. A plethora of left-wing eliminations, however, appears set to benefit that political chameleon, Nessa Childers.

                Verdict: FG 1, SF 1, Ind 1.

                In toto, therefore, an Irish result of:

                FG 4
                SF 3
                FF 2 and
                Ind 2

                seems probable. Warning - Vermelinho predictions may not resemble actual results.

                Comment


                  #33
                  The 2016 Irish election is over!

                  NI prediction

                  SF 1 (elected with quota on first count)
                  DUP 1 (elected with Tory, UKIP and TUV transfers)
                  UUP 1 (elected with NI21 and comfortably enough Green and Alliance transfers)

                  Comment


                    #34
                    The 2016 Irish election is over!

                    Vermelinho wrote: A number of Euro polls today, the upshot of which would mean SF making a cross-border clean sweep, and FF reduced to one MEP. If Labour really do poll only 7%, there could yet be a general election before the end of the year.
                    http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/labour-faces-wipeout-in-euro-elections-poll-shows-1.1800628

                    http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/labour-taking-81-per-cent-of-criticism-rabbitte-1.1801352

                    Comment


                      #35
                      The 2016 Irish election is over!

                      Sinn Fein PPB "looking like a million Lire"

                      Comment


                        #36
                        The 2016 Irish election is over!

                        And the Greens have an outside chance of success in both Munster and Dublin. As recently as 2007, FF, FG and Labour won 90% of Dáil seats - today's Indo poll gives them a combined 47%.

                        Comment


                          #37
                          The 2016 Irish election is over!

                          Labour reportedly calling an emergency conference next week - one suspects the coronation of Joan Burton will be top of the agenda. As for the by-elections, FG appear set to fend off Mary O'Rourke's son, Aeongus, in Longford/Westmeath, while the Socialist Ruth Coppinger is tipped to prevail in Dublin West.

                          Comment


                            #38
                            The 2016 Irish election is over!

                            Can our hero survive on his €70,000 severance package?

                            Comment


                              #39
                              The 2016 Irish election is over!

                              Only the county council and by-election votes counted today - don't know about the UK, but here local government is as powerful as the proverbial chocolate teapot. Turnout, thankfully, was above 50%, national exit poll to be released at 9.

                              Comment


                                #40
                                The 2016 Irish election is over!

                                Morning RD. Local Govt here has more powers nominally but the Tories are reducing them both directly (by building 'free' private schools) and indirectly by squeezing the cash supply.

                                Meanwhile in NI, hardline 'Traditional' Unionists doing well, SDLP struggling.

                                Comment


                                  #41
                                  The 2016 Irish election is over!

                                  And the winners so far are NOTA, as Independents top the poll on 27%. FG will be disappointed with their 24% share, FF going nowhere on 22, SF as expected on 17, but Labour getting fried on 7. Highlights so far are Fine Gael's middle-class poster boy Brian Hayes limping to 10% in Dublin, with Eamon Ryan in a surprisingly strong second on early tallies. Where in '09, most councils moved to FG-Lab pacts, this time out the Sinn Féin and Indo showings mean FG and FF will be pushed together.

                                  Comment


                                    #42
                                    The 2016 Irish election is over!

                                    This election shows that the Irish people don't really want to vote to any of the shit being put in front of them.

                                    A load of academics should get together and form a party running on a platform of political and constitutional reform, as well promising hard-ball negotiation with the ECB. They should be politically neutral as possible, and promise to disband after one period in government, after which a democratic system would be set in place that would finally allow Ireland to have a left-right political system. Such a party would absolutely clean up at the next general election. They could call themselves "New Republic" or simply just "Competence Now".

                                    Comment


                                      #43
                                      The 2016 Irish election is over!

                                      I suspect the centre-left independents will form a party before 2016, seeing as SF are only getting roughly half the gains from Labour's woes. Dublin West looks a two-horse race between the Socialists and SF, while Ming is currently topping the MNW poll.

                                      Comment


                                        #44
                                        The 2016 Irish election is over!

                                        Haven't you already got a bloc of self-styled neutrals on 27% support?

                                        The chair of NI's 21st Century Party has retired from politics without waiting for the European count in which she's a candidate

                                        Comment


                                          #45
                                          The 2016 Irish election is over!

                                          The Greens are battling back from oblivion, Ryan still in contention, and picking up a few councillors.. SF topping the Dublin West poll and the largest party on Dublin City Council.

                                          Comment


                                            #46
                                            The 2016 Irish election is over!

                                            Dunga Garrincha de Ipanema wrote: Haven't you already got a bloc of self-styled neutrals on 27% support?
                                            The problem is that most of them are either rejects from the major parties, or have defected from the major parties. Career politicians, in other words.

                                            Comment


                                              #47
                                              The 2016 Irish election is over!

                                              Been working on this stuff all day, feel wrecked now.

                                              The Shinners have won big and look like taking three European seats. Ming Flanagan has won a European seat too.

                                              Labour are in absolute meltdown and their results are at the rough end of what had been predicted for them. All their European seats are almost certainly gone. Burton will probably move against Gilmore for the leadership some time next week.

                                              The Dublin West by-election was won by Ruth Coppinger of the Socialists, who edged out another Sinn Feiner thanks to a lot of transfers from David Hall, the mortgage advocacy campaigner. Coppinger exhorted the public not to pay the water charges in her victory speech.

                                              An interesting day all round. Fine Gael got a bit of a kicking too, but that will be obscured by the slaughter of Labour.

                                              Comment


                                                #48
                                                The 2016 Irish election is over!

                                                So will Mary-Lou McDonald be inviting Matt Baggott and Theresa Villiers for a celebratory drink?

                                                Comment


                                                  #49
                                                  The 2016 Irish election is over!

                                                  One notable feature is that, as unspectacular as the FF performance has been,they've finished ahead of FG in the aggregate local election polls, so suddenly Kenny's no longer the cast iron certainty to be a two-term Taoiseach that appeared to be the case even in January. The FF-FG coalition still looks set, but overall supremacy is up for grabs.

                                                  Meanwhile, the Sunday Independent is so spooked as to want a return to "Old Labour", but with the new intake first to be slaughtered, that appears highly improbable.

                                                  Comment


                                                    #50
                                                    The 2016 Irish election is over!

                                                    Just to tell DG that the Greens' Grace O'Sullivan has now been strongly tipped to take the final South seat - if they can pull off two MEPs, they must surely be set for a return to the Dáil.

                                                    Comment

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