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  1. #1

    Visca Catalunya?

    So, it appears Catalan nationalists are organising a million-man march to demand independence, as polls suggest 51% support for the proposition. There have long been divisions between CiU and Esquerra over what degree of political and cultural autonomy to demand for the region, but given that the region already has one of the highest degrees of devolution in the EU, it's hard to see what proposal would bridge the gap. Other conundrums worth considering are whether Catalan EU membership would roll-over automatically, and similar whether the region meets the criteria for euro membership. The Spanish Constitution bans independence votes, but no man can set the boundary to the march of a nation, and surely all political persuasions would prefer a vote to put the issue to bed.

  2. #2

    Visca Catalunya?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-19564640

    Response was even larger than the organisers hoped.

  3. #3

    Visca Catalunya?

    The CiU will win Sunday's election handily, but will still fail to win an absolute majority, so remains to be seen whether they will consider that sufficient mandate for a referendum.

  4. #4

    Visca Catalunya?

    It seems the whole March of Rome...I mean Barcelona charade was succesful in pulling a smokescreen on the calamitous state of regional finances which had Mas in a tight spot just a few weeks ago. The Lega Nord has a lot to learn.

  5. #5

    Visca Catalunya?

    Mixed messages from tonight's results - on the one hand, Mas's party has suffered major losses, on the other hand nationalist left gains have left the pro-referendum total on 74 seats out of 135.

  6. #6

    Visca Catalunya?

    CiU and ERC have formed a pact, and an independence referendum will be held in 2014.

  7. #7

    Visca Catalunya?

    The referendum date has been set for November 9th, but (surprise, surprise) Madrid has pledged to block any vote. Unlike Scotland, the pro-independence camp have a sizeable lead in the polls to date.

  8. #8

    Visca Catalunya?

    Given that the support for separation hasn't been over 50% historically, the hurdle for a split should be higher than a one-time simple majority.

  9. #9

    Visca Catalunya?

    And Montenegro would be such an example, but clearly it would be up to the Catalan government to decide that, given Madrid's attitude differing to that of Westminster, and the EU considering it an internal matter. There's also the option of requiring a minimum level of turnout for a valid poll, but the Scottish experience in 1979 (where the vote was for devolution, but not sufficiently so) would leave the verdict open to interpretation.

  10. #10

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    Visca Catalunya?

    The last thing Europe needs is a new micro state trying to milk its neighbours by virtue of its location

  11. #11

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    Visca Catalunya?

    Viva Independent Ballyhea!

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/jan/05/irish-village-ballyhea

  12. #12

    Visca Catalunya?

    So, the referendum that's not a referendum is going ahead on Sunday - it seems unlikely that non-nationalists will cast a ballot in an unofficial vote, and that the only mechanism that could give any legal effect would be regional elections.

  13. #13

    Visca Catalunya?

    Only 33% of the total electorate voted, of which, unsurprisingly, Yes won by a landslide after No voters followed Madrid's boycott. It would seem elections will follow, as a proxy referendum.

  14. #14
    Felicity, I guess so's Avatar
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    Visca Catalunya?

    Non-nationalists DID vote- I've seen facebook images of people in Spain football scarves, draped in flags etc casting theirs.

  15. #15

    Visca Catalunya?

    True, but yesterday, the status quo only received 5%, whereas in a legally-binding, universally accepted referendum, you'd expect the margin either way to be closer to the Scottish result, so hard to escape the feeling they're sitting it out for whatever follows next.

  16. #16

    Visca Catalunya?

    From a purely vexillological perspective, I hope Catalunya declare independence.

    The Catalan Estelada is a really good flag.

  17. #17

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    Visca Catalunya?

    Good news - the flag is already available without the state

    People's Republic of Cork next

  18. #18
    Felicity, I guess so's Avatar
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    Visca Catalunya?

    you'd expect the margin either way to be closer to the Scottish result
    No you wouldn't! Where are you getting that sort of estimate from?

  19. #19
    ursus arctos's Avatar
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    Visca Catalunya?

    Well, there isn't even unanimity over the flag, with both versions of the Estellada competing with the current Senyera.

    Personally, I much prefer the blue version:


  20. #20

    Visca Catalunya?

    The flag with the star looks south/central american, whereas the one with the stripes looks like the old south vietnam flag.

  21. #21
    ursus arctos's Avatar
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    Visca Catalunya?

    Cuba:



    South Vietnam:


  22. #22

    Visca Catalunya?

    Felicity, I guess so wrote:
    you'd expect the margin either way to be closer to the Scottish result
    No you wouldn't! Where are you getting that sort of estimate from?
    Going by these opinion polls, while Yes are ahead, you're still looking at roughly 40% Nos when undecideds are allocated.

  23. #23
    ursus arctos's Avatar
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    Visca Catalunya?

    DR, historical polls severely underestimate the impact of the Spanish government's ham handed attempts to quash the vote.

    People are genuinely pissed, and rightly so.

  24. #24

    Visca Catalunya?

    loose cannon wrote: Good news - the flag is already available without the state

    People's Republic of Cork next
    Yeah, but it's not the same, unless you have it on the Sporcle flags of the world quiz.

  25. #25
    Felicity, I guess so's Avatar
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    Visca Catalunya?

    DR, historical polls severely underestimate the impact of the Spanish government's ham handed attempts to quash the vote.
    Indeed.

    And the Scottish vote wasn't 60:40, was it? Hence my comment about your 'close to the Scottish proportions'

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