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Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

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    #26
    Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

    Odds seem to be only vaguely related to form. 16/1 England is crazy; 33/1 would be more realistic. They've entered 30 major tournaments and won one.

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      #27
      Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

      satchmo76 wrote: Odds seem to be only vaguely related to form. 16/1 England is crazy; 33/1 would be more realistic. They've entered 30 major tournaments and won one.
      Odds are based on the money put down by the punters, aren't they? (correct me if I'm wrong). Heaven forbid England win anything, and the bookies are in trouble if they're offering 33/1 or more.

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        #28
        Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

        Bryaniek wrote: Odds from Boylesports:

        10/3 Brazil
        9/2 Spain
        11/2 Argentina
        8/1 Germany
        12/1 Holland
        16/1 England
        16/1 Italy
        20/1 Uruguay
        22/1 France
        25/1 Portugal
        40/1 Chile
        66/1 Paraguay
        66/1 Mexico
        66/1 Belgium
        66/1 Russia
        66/1 U.S.A.
        80/1 Colombia
        80/1 Serbia
        80/1 Ecuador
        80/1 Turkey
        100/1 Ghana
        100/1 Ivory Coast
        100/1 Czech Republic
        100/1 Croatia

        Holland still rated well ahead of Portugal?

        Some very tempting choices at 100/1.
        Mexico at 66/1? Can someone lay a bet down for me?

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          #29
          Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

          Yes they are, TNIB. Hence why you'll struggle to find England at odds anything like that low in non-UK bookies.

          It's also why I'm not surprised to see Argentina at such low odds. They really should be longer, but it's the Lionel Messi effect, and as I already said it might - just might - turn out to be justified. Argentina have a huge psychological monkey on their backs though. I was thinking about it a short while ago and it suddenly occurred to me that the time span between England winning the World Cup and me being born (18 years) is not as long as the timespan between Argentina's last major trophy win and today (19 years, which of course will be 21 by the time the World Cup comes around). They've not been beyond the World Cup quarter finals in all that time.

          Brian, Sabella's very good, albeit he doesn't have an awful lot of popular support here (almost entirely because Argentine football fans are idiots). What he's excelled at previously is getting teams to play above themselves, and he's got to do that now with Argentina's defence.

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            #30
            Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

            Also don't most bookies offer E/W 1/4 the odds on a semi-final appearance? While 16-1 seem ludicrously short odds for England winning the thing, offering much more than 4-1 on England long-range to reach the semis might be seen as a bit rash, after all since 1986, in 7 World Cups, they've reached 1 semi-final, been knocked out on penalties in the QF of another, and been knocked out by the eventual winners in the QFs of 2 more.

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              #31
              Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

              Odds are a terrible sign of form because, as has been mentioned, they are based on punters' money or, at least, the prospect of punters money laid and, of course, a lot of that is sentimental money hence England's placing, for instance.

              Spain may get lazy. Other teams are going to figure out the six midfielders trick. There are a lot of miles to cover before 2014 and a lot of games to play. How strong is their squad if a few top names get injured?
              Spain may get lazy but I can't see it. People have been saying this about people figuring out the six midfielders trick but, seriously, how? It isn't the tactical formation that works. The tactical formation is madness and only works because of the skills of the players. The only way you are really going to nullify it is match it for levels of skill which is why only Portugal, Germany and Italy are getting anywhere near. Pirlo is out for 2014, one assumes, so that is a major loss unless there is another Pirlo around that I don't know of and, even then, he doesn't get the space in midfield with Spain that he does with England, for instance.

              Portugal and Germany can take it to them. They have the skills and can stretch them, get in their face, worry them at the back, make them play balls that they don't want to. Previously, if you had a team that could outplay you, you parked the bus and disrupted their play in your half/third and hope for a counter attack or a set-piece. With Spain, that is playing into their hands by doing that as they are patient and just chip away until they pick the lock.

              To disrupt their play, you have to pin them back and play their game but, obviously, the problem is that no-one has the same skill set. Portugal and Germany are getting there but, because of the long-term nature of coaching those skills and that philosophy of play (because the patience is as important as the passing), it will take time to get the players to that level rather than find them out technically. I don't know enough about Portuguese coaching so they may be able to get towards matching Spain because the coaching is there. Germany certainly have since their 2000 year zero and matching Ajax and Clairefontaine.

              As far as injuries and, indeed, retirements are concerned, as has been pointed out, they went without Villa and Puyol this time and the whole system works because it keeps producing the players, not relying upon freakish players. Anyway, if they really get stuck, what do they do - chuck on Llorente, Mata, Navas? Not a bad plan B. THey are only in trouble if they have to put Negredo on again.

              Don't mistake this for me wanting Spain to rule for evermore. I don't, I want them to be equalled and beaten by other teams. However, I want them to be matched by technical ability, vision and intelligence that is also the only way to beat them, I feel. As it happens, it is also a cheap, simple and easily repeatable model that works as well for junior, amatuer and semi-pro players as it does the national team

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                #32
                Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

                That Night In Barcelona wrote:
                Originally posted by Analogue Bubblebath II
                Luxemburgo capped Rafael Scheidt a couple of times. That'll never be beaten.
                Wasn't he involved in some conspiracy to give caps out to crap players in the qualifiers for World Cup 2002, which their agents were then able to use to get their players a lucrative move to Europe?

                May have been a different manager, but I have a half a memory that several agents were prosecuted. Also I think Luxemburgo went through capped 80-90 different players before the tournament.
                It wasn't Luxemburgo (wrong time period), but I can't find any mention of the scandal online. Did I imagine it?

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                  #33
                  Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

                  It was the right time period. Brazil had played 8 of their 18 World Cup qualifiers by the time Luxemburgo was fired as Brazil manager in late September 2000.

                  He was sacked partly because of bad defeats against Paraguay and Chile, partly because the Olympic team had done badly in Sydney, and partly because of the aforementioned practice of handing out international caps to utter planks. There was also some stuff about alleged tax-dodging and a vengeful former mistress.

                  Scheidt played in a couple of full internationals for Brazil, then a prestigious friendly against Barcelona at Xmas 1999. Very soon afterwards, he joined Celtic for just under £5m, on the strength of a highlights video. Nobody at the club had ever bothered to go and see him play live.

                  It took until 2003 to get rid of him. Very unlike Kenny Dalglish to waste millions on a bad player.

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                    #34
                    Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

                    Wasn't he involved in some conspiracy to give caps out to crap players in the qualifiers for World Cup 2002, which their agents were then able to use to get their players a lucrative move to Europe?

                    May have been a different manager, but I have a half a memory that several agents were prosecuted. Also I think Luxemburgo went through capped 80-90 different players before the tournament.
                    Handing out caps to players like Scheidt and many other one or two cap wonders was always very much a political ploy.

                    Teixeira had to keep the multiple state Presidents happy so he would send his big weaponry, the national team, to play friendlies in the far flung regions to curry favour and give them the opportunity to make a few quid for themselves.

                    Some of the states are tiny though so games there were never going to be lucrative unless there was some local interest, thus a local player would get a mysterious call up and play in the game to swell the crowd and line the pockets of the state president.

                    Have you ever heard of Brazilian international Charles? I'll be surprised if you did. He played for Bahia in their surprise championship winning team in the late 1980s. It was a team of no stars at all apart from him, that very much at a push.

                    He won at least one cap though and it came in a friendly that was of course played in Salvador, home of his club side. Now I saw Bahia tour in the UK around that time and was curious to see this new Brazilian international they had. He was rubbish and he had no career of note after than surprising title win.

                    The other similarly bent reason why players get capped is officials at the CBF cosying up with agents. Underhand arrangements are made where the agents would pay off someone to get one of their clients selected for the selecao. Such was the cache(add acute) of being a Brazilian international, it meant that the same player's value to a western club rose enormously overnight for no real good reason. People were, still are too dazzled by the fantasy of what Brazilian football represents.

                    I think this was the route to Scheidt's transfer to Celtic.

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                      #35
                      Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

                      I think next time round will be a tournament too far for Spain, four in a row, in this day and age just doesn't seem plausible.

                      Mind you I was saying the same thing about this tournament 3 weeks ago

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                        #36
                        Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

                        People are saying that and it does seem logical but then you look at it - most of the squad apart from Puyol and Xavi will be still there, one assumes, and they will have your Villas etc back. Tactically, there are very few teams to beat them and, technically, very few to match them which leaves Portugal and, from what people have been saying, Argentina and Uruguay.

                        Aside from these fairly predictable obstacles to a fourth title, there is wholesale terrible injuries (possible), Dutch style meltdowns (unlikely), Brazil-style world tour burn-out (doesn't seem likely presently) or lack of motivation. That latter is possible after their recent achievements but you have got to think that they will be more motivated for two ECs and WCs having got 3/4 of the way there than less

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                          #37
                          Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

                          Being the first European team to win in South America would be a huge incentive. Is referee bias, or FIFA fixing things like the draw for Brazil, a potential obstacle too?

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                            #38
                            Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

                            satchmo76 wrote: Being the first European team to win in South America would be a huge incentive. Is referee bias, or FIFA fixing things like the draw for Brazil, a potential obstacle too?
                            "Referee bias".....?????????????.

                            "FIFA fixing the draw for Brazil".......???????

                            Tell us more..
                            Please....!!

                            I want to hear this...!
                            Really I do.......!!!

                            Comment


                              #39
                              Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

                              It's purely a hypothetical but clearly there are precedents for hosts benefiting from dubious decisions: 2002 WC, Poland v Greece here.

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                                #40
                                Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

                                It's not exactly "fixing" the draw, but I can tell you now, Brazil's first-round group will consist of them, one of the second-seeded European teams (Serbia, or Croatia, perhaps), an Asian side (South Korea, or Qatar?) and a CONCACAF or African qualifier, Honduras, or Zambia, perhaps. That's just naturally how the geographical nature of World Cup finals draws always pans out for Brazil as one of the top seeds and South American to boot. The 'group of death' it won't be.

                                Comment


                                  #41
                                  Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

                                  Post-war groups for Brazil

                                  South Africa 2010
                                  Brazil
                                  Portugal
                                  Côte d'Ivoire
                                  North Korea

                                  Germany 2006
                                  Brazil
                                  Australia
                                  Croatia
                                  Japan

                                  Korea/Japan 2002
                                  Brazil
                                  Turkey
                                  Costa Rica
                                  China PR

                                  France 1998
                                  Brazil
                                  Norway
                                  Morocco
                                  Scotland

                                  US 1994
                                  Brazil
                                  Sweden
                                  Russia
                                  Cameroon

                                  Italy 1990
                                  Brazil
                                  Costa Rica
                                  Scotland
                                  Sweden

                                  Mexico 1986
                                  Brazil
                                  Spain
                                  Northern Ireland
                                  Algeria

                                  Spain 1982

                                  Brazil
                                  Soviet Union
                                  Scotland
                                  New Zealand

                                  Argentina 1978
                                  Austria
                                  Brazil
                                  Spain
                                  Sweden

                                  West Germany 1974
                                  Yugoslavia
                                  Brazil
                                  Scotland
                                  Zaire

                                  Mexico 1970
                                  Brazil
                                  England
                                  Romania
                                  Czechoslovakia

                                  England 1966
                                  Portugal
                                  Hungary
                                  Brazil
                                  Bulgaria

                                  Chile 1962
                                  Brazil
                                  Czechoslovakia
                                  Mexico
                                  Spain

                                  Sweden 1958
                                  Brazil
                                  Soviet Union
                                  England
                                  Austria

                                  Switzerland 1954
                                  Brazil
                                  Yugoslavia
                                  France
                                  Mexico

                                  Brazil 1950
                                  Brazil
                                  Yugoslavia
                                  Switzerland
                                  Mexico

                                  So an Asian side, a strong Eastern European side and Scotland probably

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                                    #42
                                    Are Spain Firm Favorites to win WC 2014?

                                    A lot of that is pre-ordained by the fact that they're always seeded (justifiably) and IIRC they can't get another South American side (which seems generous, as someone like Paraguay will be stronger than an Eastern European side).

                                    Scotland have cunningly avoided Brazil since 1998 by declining to participate in the finals. Their current equivalent (in terms of Scotland's strength in the 1990s) might be Sweden or Ukraine.

                                    The African side is a wildcard. Cameroon were meant to be strong in 1994 but were in decline. The tickled Ivories were by far the strongest African side in 2010. Sometimes the 4th side is almost certainly just there to be thrashed: Zaire, N Korea, Japan, NZ, China; and Mexico in those first two tournaments.

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