So, Zimbabwe, then.

[G-Man]

So, Zimbabwe, then.

Namibia's SWAPO is showing signs of intolerance for the opposition. Sam Nujoma sounds increasingly like Mugabe, though to his credit he vacated the presidency when constitutionally required to do so. He's still pulling the strings though.

[Anton Gramscescu]

So, Zimbabwe, then.

Yeah, I wasn't totally sure about Namibia. I guess this is par for the course from guys who were military commanders at one point. They didn't have a lot of opposition when they were in the field and they don't expect any when they come to power (Museveni, Kagame, Zalawi, Mugabe, Njoma).

[N est à?]

So, Zimbabwe, then.

Yeah, what's dispiriting is how singling out African countries as stable and relatively prosperous/well governed can often be a kiss of death- you could have held Zimbabwe up not that long ago, Ivory Coast as well.

Oh yeah, and echo that Michaela Wrong recommendation- her book about the Congo and the fall of Mobutu is great as well, though I forget the title just now.

[Anton Gramscescu]

So, Zimbabwe, then.

In the Footsteps of Mr. Kurtz. I preferred the Eritrean book, though - I found she skirted the colonial period a little too much in Kurtz. It's a much better read if you've already got some grounding in the Congo, like King Leopold's Ghost, which is a very good book also.

[ooh aah]

So, Zimbabwe, then.

What about Zambia? I never hear negative things about it in the news, and I did once read about a former President who resigned about 3 or 4 years ago for failing to control the AIDS crises, which he had promised to do prior to getting elected.

[N est à?]

So, Zimbabwe, then.

Good shout, perhaps, on Zambia. I think Zambia is another African country to have peacefully transferred power via elections, when Kenneth Kaunda was voted out about 15 years ago. I don't know much about it since then though- I think they were quite heavily involved in the Congo war, but who wasn't?

[Anton Gramscescu]

So, Zimbabwe, then.

Yes, good call on Zambia. I had forgotten about them. And, upon a little research, I see that Benin has also had a democrativ transition.

[San Bernardhinault]

So, Zimbabwe, then.

Isn't Zambia (and Namibia and Botswana, actually) screwed by the SA power crisis?

Lots of South African friends seem very concerned for the future at the moment, but every time I go down there it feels like a fairly succesful and prosperous place, and one with increasing racial diversity, too. Even over the last two years it feels like I've seen substantially more black people eating in what had been almost all-white restaurants.

Apart from the power problems, and the Zuma/Mbeki corruption, it feels like it's somewhere still on the up.

It's interesting to wonder whether there's something of a democratic domino effect - the countries talked up recently have all been neighbouring, in Southern Africa. And I've heard vaguely good things (by African standards) about Malawi and Mozambique, too. An optimistic me would see Zimbabwe being part of an organic push of democracy and stability from the south of the continent (which, a cynical me would say, will come thoroughly unstuck when it reaches the DRC and Great Lakes region).

[G-Man]

So, Zimbabwe, then.

Yeah, I think you're right on all counts, Cyclist (what's with the self-deprecation though? You're monikers don't correspond with reality).

My moaning about SA is based in large parts on a feeling of betrayal because principles that were held in high regard in the struggle now are being corrupted.

Zambia is a good shout as well, though the quality of its democracy would not pass the quality control of those who demand highest standards, as far as I can tell.

[ooh aah]

So, Zimbabwe, then.

oh so on a par with the UK then?

[boris]

So, Zimbabwe, then.

I don't think domino effects are actually proven to exist, are they? Wasn't it a concept created by McCarthyites in America to make people fear Communism?

[San Bernardhinault]

So, Zimbabwe, then.

Pan Tau - you're actually one of the most optimistic I know about SA's future. You're one of the few who's not thinking about finding potential exit routes.

As for the self-deprecation, why not? It's more tasteful than posturing willy-waving, I find.

[G-Man]

So, Zimbabwe, then.

Realistic, I'd say. Of course, I have a EU passport, and can leave tomorrow, if I want to. But white people in SA are a bunch of moaners whose side is never green enough.

I don't think SA is going to the dogs (you'll have at least two people say that to you, right?). I don't think those who are planning their exit are pessimistic, but more likely frustrated. I have no problem with that — I'm frustrated, too — but with the manner in which that frustration finds expression.

Many who leave SA come back after a few years quite disillusioned about "overseas". Some stay and won't return because of pride. I know a few of those in Perth and in New Zealand.

[San Bernardhinault]

So, Zimbabwe, then.

Yeah, that sounds about right. There's one couple who are a bit weird because they have generally been really enthusiastic about "New South Africa" (for want of a better phrase). But others are your typical lot who are finding ways of getting EU passports through Lithuanian grandfathers, but who are probably never going to move because they only really want to move to London and realise they'll not quite get the same weather here, and they might get a one bedroom flat at the wrong end of Penge for all the equity in their several acres of prime Johannesburg.

[Ginger Yellow]

So, Zimbabwe, then.

It was more of a Team B kind of idea than specifically McCarthyite, as I understand it, although variations of it go back to the earliest days of the National Security Council.

[G-Man]

So, Zimbabwe, then.

Oh dear, Thabo Mbeki must be really annoyed this morning. Morgan Tsvangirai has said that Mbeki should fuck the fucking fuck off as "mediator", while some Zanu-PF fuck announced that Mbeki has done a wonderful job as mediator. On the radio this morning an analyst said that Zanu-PF fuck's comment would certainly undermine Mbeki's desire to be seen as a neutral in the mediation effort.

The paramedics arrived six minutes later to stitch my sides.

I have just written an editorial pronouncing with all due pomposity that while Mbeki's legacy at home was long in tatters (particularly because of his HIV/AIDS policy), he has now also squandered his international reputation by saying there was no crisis while tickling Mad Bob's syphillis-ridden cock (I might have phrased it differently).

Even the ANC has said hat there is indeed a crisis in Zimbabwe. Not that one requires much clarity of thought to arrive at that conclusion.

[Anton Gramscescu]

So, Zimbabwe, then.

But did Mbeki ever really believe in that "quiet diplomacy" thing? Or did he just figure - there's fuck-all any of us can do to dislodge this lunatic if he doesn't want to go, so I'll "engage" him quietly as a sop to the public so as to appear to be doing something even though it's hopeless?

Not that the latter has any special claim to virute as a position or anything, but it at least suggests a position of realism rather than just cravenness.

[G-Man]

So, Zimbabwe, then.

Oh, SA had the influence and direct power to dislodge Mugabe. Mbeki has propped the bastard up for years, for reasons that are subject to debate (the most logical explanation resides with Mbeki's psyche).

Quiet diplomacy has consisted mainly of the government sticking its head in the sand in the hope of not annoying Mugabe.

A couple of years ago a colleague told me the story of a bunch of journalists enjoying the unusual privilege of conversing with the foreign minister, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. They challenged her about all matter of things happening to the people in Zimbabwe — the standard abuses everybody know about – and the SA govt's inaction on these. Dlamini-Zuma responded by saying that she knew nothing of such things, and if these things can be shown to her, the government would take action. Of course, it never did.

Now Mbeki says there is no crisis in Zim when so very obviously there is, and that the situation is manageable, when clearly it is not. His quiet diplomacy policy has signally failed, and the stubborn fucker still sits in Mugabe's pocket.

[Anton Gramscescu]

So, Zimbabwe, then.

OK, I'll bite. How could SA dislodge Mugabe, if it chose to do so?

[G-Man]

So, Zimbabwe, then.

By stopping to prop up his regime and isolating him internationally.

Presently, SA gives Zim electricity, food aid etc (and lets ships with a cargo of arms for Zimbabwe alight at Durban port). Cut that off, and the wolves in Zanu-PF will eat the guy. Though that would also hurt the public.

Apply targeted sanctions. Ban Mugabe and his mates and families from entering SA, and freeze their assets here. Another way for the wolves to eat Mugabe.

Most importantly, give Africa a lead on diplomatic policy. If SA turns on Mugabe, the rest of the SADC, and most of the AU would follow suit. Mugabe would not survive isolation from the rest of Africa.

Alas, Mbeki hasn't even threatened Mugabe with such courses of action.

[DCI Harry Batt]

So, Zimbabwe, then.

This looks like good news on the arms shipments front.

[G-Man]

So, Zimbabwe, then.

Well, it's going to Angola now. Which will at least delay the use of the weapons a little.

[DCI Harry Batt]

So, Zimbabwe, then.

Every silver lining, eh?

[San Bernardhinault]

So, Zimbabwe, then.

Are the Angolans friendly with Mugabe? Is it some misplaced socialist brotherhood thing? Admittedly, I don't even know if it's the descendents of UNITA or MPLA who are in power there, but I was assuming it was MPLA.

[G-Man]

So, Zimbabwe, then.

Yeah, Eduardo dos Santos is a great chum of Bob's. Along with Gubeza of Mozambique, Kabila of the DRC and the chap in Namibia, he is in the pro-Mugabe camp. In the case of Kabila the support is due to Zimbabwe's engagement in the DRC war on Kabila's side; the other three tend to see him as a great liberator from colonialism. In Namibia's case, he might even be something of an inspiration in repressing opposition parties (the rumblings there are not very hope inspiring).

Botswana, Malawi, Mauritius and, to a lesser extent, Zambia head the anti-Mugabe front in the SADC. Botswana especially is motivated to get Zim running again because of the influx of Zimbabwean refugees.