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Smoking poll - the 2012 election happy ending

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    #26
    Smoking poll - the 2012 election happy ending

    Tubbs, trade figures aren't going to be particularly relevant to this election.

    The only economic indicators that are really motivating US voters these days are unemployment and gasoline prices, with GDP growth being relevant to the extent that we can still say that we aren't back in recession.

    I don't understand Michigan politics at all.

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      #27
      Smoking poll - the 2012 election happy ending

      I'm not saying those are good or rational reasons for Michiganders to vote for Mitt, but they are increasing his poll numbers, I'd bet.

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        #28
        Smoking poll - the 2012 election happy ending

        Quick question from an undereducated but curious Brit: New Mexico and Colorado stand out as likely Dem states surrounded by Republicans. What's behind this?

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          #29
          Smoking poll - the 2012 election happy ending

          Increasing numbers of Hispanic voters, I would guess.

          Thanks to Renart for the link above: I get so tired of hearing my local news stations report the latest poll ("Obama 53-47!") with no reference to how the election is actually decided.

          Being a pessimist, I just assume that toss-ups will go Republican. I'm not convinced by this comforting notion that Tea Party people will stay home. Their devil must be destroyed, even by a wicked sinner.

          Hope Wisconsin stays Democrat, for the Vole.

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            #30
            Smoking poll - the 2012 election happy ending

            In addition to Latinos, Colorado has a growing university/ski bum population (which can overlap), and New Mexico is increasingly becoming the rational "Sun Belt" alternative.

            Santa Fe, for example, has a rapidly growing gay population.

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              #31
              Smoking poll - the 2012 election happy ending

              Because they breed, or convert?

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                #32
                Smoking poll - the 2012 election happy ending

                The Latino vote is an interesting wild card.

                On the one hand, the majority of lower-income and immigrant Latinos should support more liberal politicians because they need more social services. Plus, the right-wingers hate them and want to have them all arrested and deported, even if they have every legal right to be here. There is no logical way that this group should ever want Republicans in office.

                On the other hand, the fact that Latino Americans tend to be predominantly Catholic and socially conservative draws them to the socially conservative policies of the right. The right exploits this to their own advantage. This is something that drives me batshit crazy.

                Then there's just getting them to vote in numbers that would do any good. I think that's the biggest problem with this group (and the young non-Latino voters as well). I live in an area with a very large Latino population. On the last election day, I asked a few people at the dog park if they had voted. None of them were even aware that it was an election day.

                That's going to be the problem for the Democrats in November. They need to make people aware of the dangers* of allowing Republicans to win in such a way that motivates them to make the effort to vote.

                ETA: *(i.e., the effect it would likely have on them personally--not in the vague and general terms that get thrown around on both sides.)

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                  #33
                  Smoking poll - the 2012 election happy ending

                  Antonov Berylovskiy wrote: Quick question from an undereducated but curious Brit: New Mexico and Colorado stand out as likely Dem states surrounded by Republicans. What's behind this?
                  Can't speak too much for Colorado, but NM has had a serious good 'ol boy Dem tradition for awhile. The Hispanic population is majority dem, tho our Republican governor Susana Martinez is a darling on the right. She is courted by the tea baggers and received a boatload of campaign cash from the scumbag that funded the swiftboaters in '04, but she has not been as radical as many feared once in office. Both state houses are dem dominated and that has neutered her somewhat. Martinez will campaign like hell for Romney and will undoubtedly get a chunk of the Latino vote.

                  Mittens will cleanup in NW New Mexico. Large Mormon population and very conservative. He will also win handily in SE New Mexico - very Republican, oil towns, almost a little Texas. The rest of the state should vote Dem, but if folks stay on their ass and assume Obama has it won, they could be very surprised. We have 4 dems out of our 5 congressmen. That could change to 2 out of 5 if turnout is weak.

                  Colorado is a mixed bag. The huge rural areas are overwhelmingly red as is the home of Focus on the Family, Colorado Springs ('red' a cruel, fiery pun right now). They have a dem governor and the fact that the state has weathered the recession well makes one hope that Colorado can be counted on for Obama.

                  On the other hand, the fact that Latino Americans tend to be predominantly Catholic and socially conservative draws them to the socially conservative policies of the right. The right exploits this to their own advantage. This is something that drives me batshit crazy.
                  Other than Cubans in Florida, I'm not sure that is a huge worry nationwide...yet. Especially w/ some of the flat-out racist talk from the true anti-immigrant types. Yes, the lack of turn out is troubling for the dems. However, Dems definitely cannot take this growing diverse segment for granted in the future.

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                    #34
                    Smoking poll - the 2012 election happy ending

                    Alas, there are no modern-day politicians with the aura and authority of the Gipper or the Iron Lady, but let's hope that Mr Romney spares us another four years of the socialist regime of Barack Hussein Obama. SCOTUS has pandered to the forces of creeping liberalism by enforcing stealth-care, but by rallying to the Tea Party banner, Middle America has said "No more" to federal pilfering of household pockets. Will Latino hordes continue to stream across the Rio Grande - November may well decide.

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                      #35
                      Smoking poll - the 2012 election happy ending

                      Blame Seppings - he did the typing.

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                        #36
                        Smoking poll - the 2012 election happy ending

                        Rarely in the last 75 years have Yanks used the word "alas." (period w/in quotes)

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                          #37
                          Smoking poll - the 2012 election happy ending

                          It's been a while since I left Basildon, but yes, the traces remain. Since moving, I've come to admire the locals' humble piety, sharing their contempt for the liberal agenda with its promotion of sexual deviancy and its denial of an intelligent Creator. As for the race for the White House, when having to choose between two semi-Christians, I'll stick with the one who'll lower my tax bill.

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                            #38
                            Smoking poll - the 2012 election happy ending

                            That's DR on a wind-up, right? The lack of a question mark is classic him.

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                              #39
                              Smoking poll - the 2012 election happy ending

                              Oh, and one of the comments on the Grauniad article linked to by Bruno in the OP leads to this website, which looks like it good be good to keep an eye on during this campaign...

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                                #40
                                Smoking poll - the 2012 election happy ending

                                Cal Zapiekanki Bialystok wrote: Rarely in the last 75 years have Yanks used the word "alas." (period w/in quotes)
                                Are you sure? A quick google of "American Spectator alas" suggests the word's used reasonably often among the people your man there is trying to imitate. I think the dropped full stop after "Mr" is more diagnostic; that and reaching for "Basildon" as a place to be from.

                                Everyone's doing it, aren't they? This satirical alter ego business? It's quite the thing.

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                                  #41
                                  Smoking poll - the 2012 election happy ending

                                  Thanks bruno - only the dullest troll still brings up purported Obama tax increases - pathetic.

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                                    #42
                                    Smoking poll - the 2012 election happy ending

                                    Uagliaterpi wrote:
                                    Originally posted by Cal Zapiekanki Bialystok
                                    Rarely in the last 75 years have Yanks used the word "alas." (period w/in quotes)
                                    Are you sure? A quick google of "American Spectator alas" suggests the word's used reasonably often among the people your man there is trying to imitate..
                                    Perhaps, but I will then plead ignorance as it has been many years since I last glimpsed at an American Spectator (likely hoping for a possibly humorous PJ O'rourke article).

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                                      #43
                                      Smoking poll - the 2012 election happy ending

                                      From a distance, and despite the difficulties of his first term, I'm having a big phase of Obamalove at the moment. Just the sanity of the man, compared to the loons we're stuck with.

                                      He should have George Benson's In Your Eyes as his campaign song this time around.

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                                        #44
                                        Smoking poll - the 2012 election happy ending

                                        That Latino voting quandary explained:

                                        No One-Size-Fits-All Approach to Wooing Hispanics

                                        By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

                                        ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (AP) — In New Mexico, Tomasita Maestas says she will pick the presidential candidate who has the best plan to fix education and the economy.

                                        In Arizona, Mexican immigrant Carlos Gomez backs Republican Mitt Romney because he's more conservative on social issues than his Democratic opponent.

                                        In Miami, Colombia native Luna Lopez probably will vote for President Barack Obama now that he's decided to halt the deportation of many illegal immigrants brought to the United States as children.

                                        The reasons that Hispanics give for choosing between Obama and Romney are just as diverse as the countries that they or their ancestors once called home, suggesting there's no one-size-fits-all approach to courting the nation's fastest-growing minority group.

                                        The Latino vote isn't monolithic or, really, a voting bloc. It includes a range of people with varying opinions. Among them are Republican-leaning Cubans in Florida, new Mexican immigrants and longtime descendants of Spanish settlers in the Southwest, and Democratic-tilting Puerto Ricans in the East.

                                        Immigration policy would seem to be the natural top issue for these voters, except that nearly two-thirds of Hispanics are born in the U.S. Their priorities are the same as the general population — jobs, the economy, education and health care.

                                        "We need to see more jobs here, that's my No. 1 priority and what I want to hear about," says Stefan Gonzalez, an almost 18-year-old from Denver, whose heritage includes Spanish, Mexican and Native American roots. Gonzalez, who works in a suburban Denver pawn shop, says he plans to vote for Obama this fall.

                                        In Albuquerque, Ernest Gurule, an 84-year-old whose ancestors settled New Mexico in 1580, says his main issue is the federal health care plan upheld by the Supreme Court last week, and that he'll back Obama in part because of it. Also, the Democrat, adds: "It's too expensive to change horses midstream."

                                        Democrats and Republicans are in a fierce race to figure out how to best reach Hispanics.

                                        In the short term, these voters could decide the outcome in Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Florida and elsewhere. The long-term stakes are even bigger because Hispanics are projected to account for roughly 30 percent of the population by 2050, doubling in size and, potentially changing the national political landscape.

                                        Like most minorities, Hispanics traditionally have leaned Democratic. But a recent Pew Research poll indicates that Hispanics also are the fastest-growing group of independent voters, with 46 percent now shunning a party label compared with 31 percent six years ago. Such results only underscore how diverse Hispanics are and the challenges for the political parties.

                                        "It is going to be a very hard fight to win," says Jennifer Korn, the executive director of the Republican-based Hispanic Leadership Network, which was established to help bring more Hispanic voters to the GOP. "The more they assimilate, the more sophisticated they become and that's when they start dividing between parties."

                                        For now at least, Obama and his Democrats have an advantage, with the latest polls showing 65 percent of Hispanics back Obama and 25 percent back Romney.

                                        The Democrats' campaign has worked to keep that edge, helped by Obama's new immigration policy and the Supreme Court's decision to side with the administration on most of an Arizona law that many immigrants viewed as overly harsh.

                                        His campaign has spent the past year setting up offices with grassroots outreach to Hispanic communities in the Southwest, as well as in important states such as Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Florida.

                                        Mindful of the diversity among Hispanics, Obama has custom-tailored his outreach, including tweaking Spanish dialect for different regions.

                                        For instance, in Florida the campaign has two distinct outreach plans. One focuses on Cuban-Americans in Miami who tend to lean Republican and are less concerned about immigration; the other speaks to traditionally Democratic Puerto Ricans, who are U.S. citizens from birth, as well as new immigrants from Central America.

                                        Obama also has promoted the new health law, which can resonate in states such as New Mexico, which has one of the highest rates of uninsured in the country.

                                        Romney has plenty of ground to make up after a bruising primary season filled with tough rhetoric that even Republicans acknowledge turned off many Hispanics. He recently established a Hispanic advisory group that includes top elected Republican Hispanics.

                                        During the primaries, the former Massachusetts governor pledged to veto legislation, known as the DREAM Act, that would give a path to citizenship to young immigrants who came to the United States illegally as children but have since attended school or served in the military. He has since toned down his anti-immigration stance, which included self-deportation, telling a Hispanic leadership gathering in Miami that he would address illegal immigration "in a civil but resolute manner."

                                        Alexandra Franceschi, a spokeswoman for the Republican National Committee's Hispanic effort, made clear that the GOP outreach will focus broadly on the economy. "Hispanics are Americans and are facing the same issues as everyone else, chronically high unemployment, lower pay and rising health care costs," she said.

                                        Republicans have noted that under Obama, the Hispanic unemployment rate is higher than the national average. And Hispanics' median household income fell 7 percent between 2000 and 2010, from $43,100 to $40,000, according to the Pew Hispanic Center.

                                        What drives Hispanics to vote depends on who's asked.

                                        Lopez, a 20-year-old new citizen and college student from Colombia, cites Obama's policy shift on deportation as reason she's likely to pick him when she casts her first vote in the country.

                                        "The issue didn't directly affect me, but I have many family members and friends who it did," she said.

                                        In Arizona, Gomez, a 43-year-old priest who immigrated to Phoenix 15 years ago, backed Obama's policy change. But Gomez says immigration isn't his priority because "immigrants will continue coming across the border no matter what we do." He says he's voting for Romney because, like him, the Republican opposes gay marriage and abortion rights.

                                        In Albuquerque, Maestas, a 37-year-old mother and office manager, is focused intently on pocketbook issues. Immigration, she says, is only important to "a certain point" because "If you can't take care of your own, how are you going to take care of others?"

                                        ___

                                        Associated Press writers Laura Wides-Munoz in Miami, Kristen Wyatt in Denver and Amanda Lee Myers in Phoenix contributed to this report.

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                                          #45
                                          Smoking poll - the 2012 election happy ending

                                          Brunislaw wrote: Did Cal just call me a troll?
                                          Absolutely not - sorry for unclear post. Thanks for the video evidence refuting Noel Cheplow's tired whine.

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                                            #46
                                            Smoking poll - the 2012 election happy ending

                                            Brunislaw wrote:
                                            Originally posted by Sam Kelly
                                            That's DR on a wind-up, right? The lack of a question mark is classic him.
                                            Heh, he was my first guess too. Not because of the lack of question mark - more the paragraphy delivery.
                                            Ha, yes - everything about the writing style, really. I was just struck by the fact he closed with a question mark-less question to top it all off.

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                                              #47
                                              Smoking poll - the 2012 election happy ending

                                              Heh, caught to rights - we need a right-wing caricature round here.

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                                                #48
                                                Smoking poll - the 2012 election happy ending

                                                The world? Doesn't he mean the biggest tax increase in the history of the universe?

                                                Lots of people will believe him, of course, just as they believe Obama has raised their taxes and tried to steal their guns.

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                                                  #49
                                                  Smoking poll - the 2012 election happy ending

                                                  Are politics better or worse since the introduction of the internet? It was a lot easier to ignore the radicals without it.

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                                                    #50
                                                    Smoking poll - the 2012 election happy ending

                                                    Sure you are, now that you've got your Fischer-Dieskau mp3s at a massive discount.

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