WSC Met Office

[Moonlight Shadow]

A timely return for the meteo thread. After a spell of wet, windy and cool weather, we can look forward to a few days of milder, calmer weather and there should be a nice spring feel in the air. Keep hold of the winter coat though because by next week-end, things could turn colder, a lot colder even.

Pretty good agreement across the models that a northerly steaming straight ouf the arctic and taking advantage of the weak jet stream will bring us one last blast of winter with possible widespread snow again. See chart below, a stonker of a winter chart, sadly a bit late in the season for maximum effect due to the strenghts of the sun.

[EIM]

WSC Met Office

Some people local to us had the barbecue out today. I can only assume they were antipodean.

[San Bernardhinault]

WSC Met Office

Azores low, Icelandic high? Is that right? Are we having another NAO event?

[Moonlight Shadow]

WSC Met Office

Right...time for an update and a nice chart to look at.

You might have noticed it has been rather cold recently, well you can thank Mr JetStream for having buggered off and allowed a northerly blocking situation taking place and pumping a cold airmass above us. Other indicators such as NAO indeed are all negative and La Nina is a bit more quiet whilst the Polar Vortex is doing his bit and the statosphere has warmed up. Summed up, weather is complicated and a zillion things influence our climate.

For the near future, models are trending towards warmer conditions next week although this has been downgraded from previous, excitable predictions that we would hit low 20's and there is some dampness associated to it. Anothe trend, I'm afraid is that after that brief interlude, cooler conditions might very well be on their way. With no jet stream to blow our little islands under warm tropical air (the one that fucks up our winters regularly) and some activity further up north (height rises around Greenland say), more cold airmasses find themselves with nowhere but south to go and that means above our heads.

Long range forecast at the moment indicates a pretty bog standard summer, as the Met Office already said, it's going to be warmer and drier than last year but that just means that it will be pissing it down every 3 days and we'll bask in 20c temperatures.

Anyhow, the chart of the day is from the GFS 12z model run and it is a modelisation for the 29th of April, when the warmer airmass should hit the UK. This is what is called a southerly plume, basically a mass of hot air that reaches north from the desert. Such a plume is responsible for April's all time temperature record, in 1949 when it hit 29.4c in London and this one would be even warmer. April has been a month of out of place synoptics, with potent northerlies that would have shut down the country if they took place in winter and that southerly plume that would have the country sweat heavily if it was a summer event.

[San Bernardhinault]

WSC Met Office

Ooh! Loks like it shouldn't be too horrible on my birthday, then. At the moment I'm feeling no warming influence of anything. I'm feeling Siberian and Arctic breezes from too many easterlies and northerlies.

[Moonlight Shadow]

WSC Met Office

Ah bollocks, the picture is not the same anymore...

Peak District had a fair dump of snow last night, lovely views on Kinder Scout today during my small ramble before work. The wind was awfully cold, even in the strong sun...