Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament

[Anton Gramscescu]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

I think you could make a better argument that the Tories are the only national party.

The Atlantic's 32 seats are 17 Lib, 11 Con, 4 NDP.

Quebec is 14 Lib, 11 Con, 48 Bloc, 1 NDP and an indepedent

Ontario is 37 Lib, 52 Con, 17 NDP

The three prairie provinces are 3 Lib, 48 Conservatives and 4 NDP

BC is 5 libs, 21 Con and 6 NDP

The north is one each.

The Libs are basically confined to the large urban centres, plus the maritimes. The Conservatives are the party of farmers, urban Alberta, Quebec City and small-town Ontario and New Brunswick. The NDP is the party of the rural resource-extraction hinterland (Thunder Bay, Churchill, Sault Ste. Marie, etc) plus a few with-it ridings in Vancouver and Toronto. The Bloc is the east end of Montreal and all of rural and small-town Quebec.

The fight this time, I think, is between Libs and Cons for small town and suburban Ontario plus bits of the maritimes; 3-way fights for much of BC (though with NDP likelier than the Libs to gain) and between the Libs and the NDP in northern Ontario.

[Anton Gramscescu]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

ursus arctos wrote:

Did Duceppe really say this?

""The Minister of Science is a creationist who thinks the Flintstones is a documentary""

Probably. It's true that Gary Goodyear is quite a religious fellow. I'm not sure if he subscribes to a literal interpretation of Genesis.

It's not an original gibe, though. The Liberals used it against Stockwell Day in 2000, only they used "Barney the Dinosaur" rather than the Flintstones.

[WOM]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

This is fun* to play with. Click the headers to sort by party or Province.

* well, you know.

[Anton Gramscescu]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

Moved that this House has no confidence in the Government.

For: 156 Against: 145.

We're off!

[ursus arctos]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

You're incredibly jaded.

The Flintstones quote is brilliant.

[Anton Gramscescu]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

ursus arctos wrote:

You're incredibly jaded.

This is true. But presumably you've known this for awhile.

[WOM]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

Woohoo!
So, May 2nd or 9th? I say 2nd.
Harper's going to want a short one.

Duceppe...I have a soft spot for the flinty-eyed madman.

[Anton Gramscescu]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

That'll be up to DJ to decide, but I can't see any reason why we'd wait to the 9th. The legal minimum is 35 days, and the only occasion since 1993 that we've had one longer than that was 2006, when we took a 2-week break for XMAS. May 2 would put us at 37 days (assuming the writ isn't formally dropped until tomorrow).

[ursus arctos]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

So you will blame it on the DJ, then.

A surprising number of hockey bloggers appear to care about this election.

[WOM]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

Apparently fat Steve's going to miss the royal wedding because of this.

[Anton Gramscescu]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

Well, the Quebec City arena is at stake, for one thing. Libs will pay for it, Tories won't.

[ursus arctos]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

Though the fight on my Twitter feed seems to be primarily between progressive Leaf fans and reactionaries from the Prairies.

[Anton Gramscescu]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

For those of you needing a Nate Silver-ish take on Canadian politics, I give you the shamelessly derivative: Threehundredeight.com.

I think his model still needs a little work, but he's done a lot of tweaking over the last year and it's a lot better than it was. And he does a good job reminding people not to get too carried away by single polls (as some of our news outlets are wont to do).

[Amor de Cosmos]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

This will be the first Canadian election M'luvley Wife will be able to vote. Because she's past the age when most people take the citizenship exam (she'd hate me for making that public) I've been trying to explain its subtleties as best I can. It's complicated by the fact there's a brand new provincial premier who'll likely call an election in the autumn.

"How can Christie Clark be prime minister when she hasn't got a seat?"

She's not prime-minister she's premier and she'll be running in a riding in next election.

"The one in May?"

No, the one after that.

"But if she's a Liberal why doesn't she run now so she'll have a seat sooner?"

Because she's a provincial Liberal, not a federal Liberal, they're quite different.

"How come?"

[deep breath] Because the provincial Liberals used to be Social Credit but they collapsed and reinvented themselves as Liberals (and actually they're really conservative not liberal.)

"Then why did they call themselves Liberal instead of Conservative?"

Because Conservative was already taken... I guess.

"But so was Liberal"

I retire to my corner defeated.

[Anton Gramscescu]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

Because the socreds collapsed in the 18 months after the 1991 election, and back then, if there was any party with a more toxic reputation than the socreds it was the Tories. So "Liberals" it was.

I hear Brian Peckford of all people - who now lives somewhere on Vancouver Island - is now actually leading a charge to revive a conservative name in BC politics.

[Amor de Cosmos]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

Ah yes, I know, but it was the federal Tories with the toxic reputation, not the provincial ones. Explaining that, and the myriad of follow-up questions, would have meant me missing my morning muffin walk, which is unthinkable.

I'm sure Peckford's "interest" is being financed out of an NDP slush fund — or it ought to be.

[ursus arctos]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

Need Wingnut posters? Try Craigslist.

[ursus arctos]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

Having a senior advisor buy one home with a prostitute may be regarded as a misfortune . . .

[WOM]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

Look, just because he's 66 and she's 22 doesn't mean they can't be in love. Why do all the haters hate romance so much....

Oh, wait, are you talking about the older escort girlfriend or the younger...er dancer girlfriend? So hard to keep up.

[Amor de Cosmos]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

See we have nothing like that going on. This election is just not happening here. There are fewer lawn signs than I've ever (not) seen. I've yet to have — or overhear — a single conversation about it outside the privacy of my own home (which is essentially me 'n' 'er). There are no scandals, no "colourful" characters, nothing to get excited about at all. I can't see it changing either, unless the Canucks lose in the first round of the play-offs, in which case I predict an instant five point swing against the government.

[WOM]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

We've got lawn signs for miles. Toronto's the battleground this time, though. Normally comfortably red, it's now considered 'in play', thanks to Rob Ford winning the mayoralty and the blue influence in the 905 all around us.

[Amor de Cosmos]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

It's quite strange. It's less "visible" than most municipal elections — and they have a turnout of about 20%. There isn't a single sign on our block and perhaps only two or three in the next ten. Maybe they'll show up in the next few weeks. It could well be different in the rest of the province but right now Vancouver's Ho-humsville electionwise.

[ursus arctos]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

What do you guys do in terms of signs?

Are they for your local candidate, the party, the leader?

And WoM, I was talking about both of them, thus the Wilde reference.

[linus]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

It's mostly the local candidate, with a lot of the leader as well.

So what does the outcome look like at this point, smaller PC lead, bigger lead, or coalition governement?

[Amor de Cosmos]

Intrigue in the Canadian Parliament - 2011 edition

ursus arctos wrote:

What do you guys do in terms of signs?

Are they for your local candidate, the party, the leader?

First: Party
Second: Candidate
Third: (if at all) Leader