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    World Cup Draw

    Final potting:

    Pot 1:
    Russia
    Germany
    Brazil
    Portugal
    Argentina
    Belgium
    Poland
    France

    Pot 2:
    Spain
    Peru (no10 in the FIFA ranking - how could this happen?)
    Switzerland
    England
    Colombia
    Mexico
    Uruguay
    Croatia

    Pot 3:
    Denmark
    Iceland
    Costa Rica
    Sweden
    Tunisia
    Egypt
    Senegal
    Iran

    Pot 4:
    Serbia
    Nigeria
    Australia
    Japan
    Morocco
    Panama
    South Korea
    Saudi Arabia

    No more than one team per confederation in each group, no more than two UEFA teams.

    Group of death:
    Brazil, Spain, Denmark, Nigeria
    Not that deadly really.

    Group of not so much death:
    Russia, Peru, Senegal, Panama

    Tastiest England group:
    Argentina, England, Iceland, Australia

    Most likely Germany group:
    Germany, Switzerland, Costa Rica, Saudi Arabia

    #2
    Best draw for England could see them go down the PIPE.

    Poland
    Iran
    Panama
    England

    Comment


      #3
      I think seeding by ranking in a 32 team tournament makes groups of death virtually impossible. It could only happen if, say, Holland drop into that bottom pot one year but then make a resurgence, or if an African or Asian side suddenly becomes really good, to Nigeria 1994 levels. I don't think Serbia have shown any signs of being as strong as they were in 1998. They were dire in 2006.

      England's fate depends entirely on how they play. Their 2010-14 form makes them vulnerable in all but the piss weakest group. They are most likely looking at 2nd place then a hammering in the last 16, as per 2010.

      Comment


        #4
        I reckon the biggest beneficiaries of this format are Mexico. Instead of getting put in a CONCACAF/Africa pot and drawing a seed plus second pot Euro and maybe even a CONMEBOL team in the other pot they have a much better (and fairer) chance of getting out of the group.

        Comment


          #5
          Mexico usually fail in European-hosted tournaments so it will be interesting to see if they overcome that this time, with a fair draw. I'd be pessimistic about any Pot 4 side getting through.

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by Sean of the Shed View Post
            Best draw for England could see them go down the PIPE.

            Poland
            Iran
            Panama
            England
            Best draw for England? In a group with the Iran team that came through two different groups unbeaten - 18 games without defeat including a run of 12 consecutive clean sheets?

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by Mumpo View Post
              Best draw for England? In a group with the Iran team that came through two different groups unbeaten - 18 games without defeat including a run of 12 consecutive clean sheets?
              Tabloid headline writers would love it though.

              Comment


                #8
                Mexico always qualify from the group and then go out in the last 16, wherever the tournament is played, as they have for six tournaments in a row now. Don't think they need help from the draw or to overcome a geographical hoodoo. A bit of luck with their second round opponents wouldn't go amiss though.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by Satchmo Distel View Post
                  Mexico usually fail in European-hosted tournaments so it will be interesting to see if they overcome that this time, with a fair draw. I'd be pessimistic about any Pot 4 side getting through.
                  If Nigeria get Switzerland or Peru and Sweden plus whatever Pot 1 team, I could see them advancing.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    The Guardian has this nifty, yet ultrafast tool. Which claims to feature an integrated "upset coefficient based on previous results" or something, but I suppose it's just humbug or good old chance.
                    Anyway, Germany in a group with Switzerland, Iran and Panama, which for some reason makes Belgium champions.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      I've just played that and the winner was...Costa Rica. I kid you not. Hence it's bollocks.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        May I ask with a slightly sardonic tone of voice whether you tipped Costa Rica to make the last eight last time out?

                        Comment


                          #13
                          My first go had england reaching the semi final, which is far more damning

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Mine had England getting about as easy a group as they could hope for, then going out in the last 16 to Peru. Brazil beat Belgium in the final (it does seem to like Belgium). All sounds pretty believable to me.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Mine had England bow out in the round of 16 to Belgium, which seems eminently possible. Brazil beat Portugal in the final. It's not impossible, I suppose.

                              Comment


                                #16
                                My second go had England crash out in the round of 16 to Portugal. Belgium beats France in the final.

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  I've just drawn England with Poland, Egypt and the Saudis - going on to a semi-final defeat by eventual winners, Spain. They should be so lucky.

                                  (Elsewhere, Brazil and Mexico failed to emerge from a group with Senegal and Serbia, which has spiked my doubts about this somewhat.)

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    After several dozen goes, the algo seems to heavily factor in european 'home advantage', with never less than 9 euro qualifiers. And for some reason heavily backs england- I stopped when I came to the first scenario where england are knocked out- after about 50 or so.

                                    Germany knocked out in a handful of scenarios- and Serbia seem to qualify in a majority of cases. I wonder if the upset result in 2010 isn't having an outsize influence here.

                                    But who knows eh? Maybe germany are due to get found out and england and serbia will do well

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      Spooky- first time running it after making that post, only seven euro qualifiers and france n england knocked out by tunisia and the saudis.

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        Suppose its possible that england players might come under government/city of london pressure to throw any game with the Saudis, what with the decision on the Aramco flotation pending.

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          Proceedings start in an hour and a half's time, so just five and a half hours until the draw.

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            How much preamble nonsense do you reckon there might be? Will I have time to tube it from King's Cross to Balham before the good sh*t begins?

                                            Comment


                                              #23
                                              I think you'd probably make it to Balmoral.

                                              Comment


                                                #24
                                                Ha. Gonna risk it.

                                                'Balham', that is.

                                                Comment


                                                  #25
                                                  Gateway to the South.

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