So...no breakthrough in ZANU-MDF talks, so there's even less government than usual. Inflation is several hundred per cent per day. There's a major cholera outbreak, and the troops are rioting. How long 'til the man goes? And does he go alive or dead?
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All-purpose Endgame in Zim Thread
He'll let the generals take over.
SA is starting to play hardball with Mugabe (and with Morgan). Much too late.
Zim's cholera outbreak has crossed the border, so the northern part of SA is also affected. -
All-purpose Endgame in Zim Thread
The press here think the soldiers rioting is a smokescreen - a deliberate ploy by Mugabe to look weak and tempt the MDC into a grab for power. The rationale seems to be that if he was really worried about his position, he'd have rushed back from whatever meeting he is currently at in the Gulf. That seems a bit glib to me, but there you go.
How is SA starting to play hardball, exactly? And when you say "let the generals take over", do you mean martial law under his command, or do you mean actually ceding power to the army?Comment
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All-purpose Endgame in Zim Thread
It's always a problem when the party you're supposed to be governing with keeps abducting your party activists and holding them incommunicado.
At this point, would the world community really have grounds to object if the South Africans invaded and tossed Mugabe out?Comment
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All-purpose Endgame in Zim Thread
So some of those abducted have turned up. They weren't being held by the police, oh no, absolutely not. But they are now. I suppose the police found them wandering along the street.
After the brief court appearance on Wednesday, officials said the case was being referred up to the High Court and that Ms Mukoko and eight others would be remanded in custody.
A judge ruled that the nine should be taken to private clinics under police supervision, but police are said to have ignored the order.
It was not immediately clear where the activists were being held.
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All-purpose Endgame in Zim Thread
Tutu has called for that. I'm not so sure that military intervention is necessarily desirable at this point. Not all diplomatic means have been exhausted, but SA simply is not mustering the political will for even that (so an invasion is not very likely anyway).At this point, would the world community really have grounds to object if the South Africans invaded and tossed Mugabe out?
I'd also be concerned about what exactly regime change would entail. How far would the purge go? It's not just Mugabe who must go, but his close henchmen and army leadership too. The latter are apparently hosting foreign military advisors — some sources say they have spotted North Koreans — which would complicate military action.
How long would an invading party occupy Zimbabwe. And at what cost? South Africa cannot afford to divert funds to military action. It would need to go through the UN, and good luck with finding a consensus there.
And I'm not sure it's clear whether Zimbabweans would welcome an invasion. Of course, we can guess that most do, but how do you measure that? You'd want to be sure that military action enjoys the support of the people.
The prior step should be to cut off Mugabe entirely. Cut off the supply of electricity and petrol. Close the borders. Apply targetted sanctions to the Zanu-PF and military hierarchy, including its more pragmatic members who might see sense in removing Mugabe when their kids can't go to schools and universities in Johannesburg, their South African bank accounts are frozen, and their wives can't go shopping in Pretoria anymore.Comment
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All-purpose Endgame in Zim Thread
Hmmmmm. No Smoke. Fire. Etc. If he comes back from this, then this man really is the new Mandella.Comment
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All-purpose Endgame in Zim Thread
I thought this was going to be a thread about Bob Dylan dying.Comment
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