The political ramifications of the crash

[E10 Rifle]

What do people reckon they'll be?

Nick Cohen, today, makes quite a persuasive case that the right will fill their boots (http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/oct/12/tradeunions-thefarright) but will they?

The immediate effect appears to have been to bolster Obama in the US and trim the Tories' lead in the polls here, while the anti-regulation arguments of the neoliberal right have been shot out of the water in a way they've never been before. Yet for the left to gain requires organisation and, to use an old-fashioned word, consciousness, which means that all the 'we told you so' stuff the left can come out with won't mean much without organisation and dynamism (both of which are only fitfully present among an organisationally weak left at the moment). The BNP, meanwhile, will look to cash in on the present crisis. It's certainly good for them.

And the fact remains that the Tories are likely to win the next election, which means that in the current financial climate Cameron's 'personal responsibility'-based 'compassionate conservatism' will likely swiftly mutate into blaming the poor for their misfortune, as it did in the early 80s and 90s, and we may well look forward to seeing single mums in council housing estates being mocked from the platform of the Tory conference once more. (An early indication of the Tories' instinct to punish the poor for the mistakes of the rich can be seen in today's paper, where they're talking enthusiastically of stripping away what limited rights agency and temporary workers have been granted by Labour).

So is Cohen right? Are we heading for the early 80s again but without the good pop music?

[delicatemoth]

The political ramifications of the crash

I fear the BNP will certainly be able to exploit this, and I think there is a danger that they could actually win an MP or two in the next election, in the areas where they already have a significant presence. The knock-on effect of this in the media could be very disproportionate (more so than if, say, the Greens won a couple of seats) and could generally move the social discourse even further rightwards. Not that the tabloids need any excuse.

[Anton Gramscescu]

The political ramifications of the crash

In the medium term I would expect that one of the outcomes will be more labour militancy. Arguably, one of the things that has been keeping a lid on wage demands has been the ability to borrow easily and cheaply. If that disappears (as it seems it will), I think there will be a great deal more pressure on wages.

[E10 Rifle]

The political ramifications of the crash

I hope you're right, AG, but it's hard to tell really. Industrial militancy tends to require a certain amount of self-confidence, and reasonably high employment levels (not to mention union membership), both of which are likely to be in short supply as jobs are slashed. We can expect anti-union attitudes among bosses to harden, though. Conversely, of course, when livelihoods are on the line, people also dig in that bit harder.

[Tactical Genius]

The political ramifications of the crash

I cannot see the BNP making much milage out of this as it is obvious to all that the architecs of this problem are white bankers and not Ethnic minorities or Muslims.

This is why the democrats and labour have been given a bump recently.
It is really for the left to fuck this up now and if they do not take advantage of this, then they have themselves to blame.
If they are smart, they could kill off the tories with this.

[anton pulisov]

The political ramifications of the crash

But who will kill off the Tories with this? Labour have been in power for going on 12 years, they've had more than enough time to rectify Thatcherism, but they've shown no interest. It would sound a bit rich if they suddenly start banging on about the Tories being wrong, when the Tories have been in opposition for 12 years.

Are you referring to some new semi-left movement on the horizon?

[DCI Harry Batt]

The political ramifications of the crash

I think, as always, that there are great opportunities for the left here. But we need to be in a position to take them. And as E10 says, that requires organisation. Of which we have...far too many.

[E10 Rifle]

The political ramifications of the crash

Housing could be one of those key areas, I think, widening out recent campaigning on social and council housing to take in the concerns of the repossessed, who are likely to grow rapidly in number.

In fact it has to be a key area, as the BNP will hover around this issue like vultures.

[DCI Harry Batt]

The political ramifications of the crash

I keep saying housing. We need to think big here. A campaign against reposessions.

[DCI Harry Batt]

The political ramifications of the crash

Along the lines of the campaigns against warrant sales in Scotland over the poll tax, I mean.

Or something like that.

[DCI Harry Batt]

The political ramifications of the crash

If you're in London tomorrow lunchtime with nowt to do...

http://www.shopstewards.net/NSSNProtest.pdf

[wingco]

The political ramifications of the crash

I read the Cohen piece - I didn't approve of the way he alighted on an episode of Shameless and took that to be a rounded and authentic depiction of UK dependency culture.

He may well be right in his overall conclusion. However, given that the last 16 years have hardly been friendly to leftism, it makes you wonder when the conditions would ever be right for a socialistic resurgency in this country. Precedent only appears to offer "an enormous world war in which it's agreed that we transfer the pull-together spirit that got us through it into peacetime".

[E10 Rifle]

The political ramifications of the crash

Along the lines of the campaigns against warrant sales in Scotland over the poll tax, I mean.

Or something like that.

Yeah that's the sort of thing I was thinking of too - skint people refusing to pay arrears to skint (but for a government bail-out) financial institutions, that kind of thing.

Yeah I don't really agree with Cohen's attack on Shameless, but he's using a bad example to make a good point; that the poor are - and will be - attacked and ridiculed more than empathised with in public discourse. And that we have to expect the political Right to become more, not less, aggressive and tenacious in the coming period. Which should be a call to action rather than defeatism, though people like Cohen himself have long since given up.

[Tactical Genius]

The political ramifications of the crash

"But who will kill off the Tories with this? Labour have been in power for going on 12 years, they've had more than enough time to rectify Thatcherism"

Fair point Bryantop.
However, the excuse for the foundation of New-Labour and to dispensing of lefty proposals like nationalisation (repealing clause 4 etc) is that the city would be panicked and all the money would leave the country blah blah blah, like the 1970's blah blah blah and london would lose out to Frankfurt as Europes financial capital....
This was given as the reason why the government U-turned and offered compensatuion when railtrack went bust and labour tried to renationised on the free.

Well now the markets and backs are bust and they need our help, we are in the box seat and can dictate whatwever the hell we want and the is f-all they can say or do.
And whatever little money they have left cannot be salted away to all those little tax havens and High-interest Hedge-fund nations like Iceland, Luxemburg and liechtenstien as when push comes to shove, their govenments cannot guarantee their banks can repay the deposits.

European monopoly and subsidisation rules are out of the window so i would do this as a govenemnt.

I would offer the banks money for controlling interest.
I would use my influence to cut managers pay and bonuses, interoduce banking legislation to limit the amount of reckless speculating.

I would blame it on tory policies and jump into bed with the unions.
Offer 5% pay rises to get the unions on-side, introduce a conversion from Priviate to council housing for those who can no longer pay their mortgages so their houses are repossesed, but they are allowed to stay in their homes but no longer own them.

I would also take shareholdings in all the housebuilder and get them to complete all their half-built developments and give them to the local councils.

Pick holes in the OTF as i have given this plenty of thought.

[DCI Harry Batt]

The political ramifications of the crash

introduce a conversion from Priviate to council housing for those who can no longer pay their mortgages so their houses are repossesed, but they are allowed to stay in their homes but no longer own them.

Let's do it

[E10 Rifle]

The political ramifications of the crash

introduce a conversion from Priviate to council housing for those who can no longer pay their mortgages so their houses are repossesed, but they are allowed to stay in their homes but no longer own them.

There is, I suppose, a risk that this would make the banks more eager to repossess if they know central or local government would take otherwise hard to shift properties off their hands, but it still doesn't sound like such a bad idea. We are at our best when we are at our boldest, as one senior Labour politician once said.

On the subject of plugging demos and events, there's a meeting on tonight:
http://leap-lrc.blogspot.com/2008/10/leap-meeting-monday-night.html

[DCI Harry Batt]

The political ramifications of the crash

While we're at it, Graham Turner (speaking at E10's meeting tonight) is our speaker at our local meeting on Wednesday:

On Wednesday 15 October, Wandsworth and Merton Left Alternative is hosting a meeting on the current financial crisis, how it affects us and what we can do about it.

Graham Turner, an economist and author of "The Credit Crunch", has agreed to be our main speaker. We will be discussing:

- Is this the end of the free market?

- Why is New Labour privatising public services and nationalising banks?

- Why should we bail out City bankers? Is there an alternative solution?

- What does the crash mean for our jobs, homes and pensions? What can we do to protect them?

We will also be talking about how Left Alternative members can link up with other campaigns - such as "Public services, not private profit" and the People before Profit charter.

The meeting will be at the Derinton Road Community Centre, on the corner of Derinton Road and Blakenham Road, Tooting, SW17, and will start at 7pm.

Click here http://tinyurl.com/Derinton-Road for a map.

After the discussion on the crisis, we will be making preparations for our attendance at this year's Left Alternative annual conference, on Saturday 8 November. Every member is very welcome to attend as an observer, and we will be electing a delegate to represent our local group. If you have any proposals for a resolution to the conference, please let us know asap or bring your ideas along on the night.

Hope to see you there

[Anton Gramscescu]

The political ramifications of the crash

Seems to me the idea makes a lot of sense for owner-occupiers with just the one mortgage, but from what I've read, a lot of the UK housing bubble was driven by middle-class types getting into the buy-to-let market. What proportion of "distressed" mortage holders are people who ocupy their own homes and what percentage are actually owner-occupiers? And, would that make any difference to this plan TG? Would you extend the same offer to landlords as well as owner-occupiers?

Would you do the same for people who took out second mortgages on their own homes? People who had paid off ther houses but then used it as a bank to just buy more stuff - would they get the same help?

The other thing you'd have to figure out would be how to recompense the owners, who might have paid substantial sums of money into the house, even if their equity has somehow smaller (or even negative) in the meantime. Not an insoluble problem, I suppose, but a tricky one.

There was a point a few years ago where Brown came up with a scheme to let people have smaller mortgages essentially by allowing the state to have an equity stake in the house you bought. Did that ever go anywhere?

[Ball Comrade]

The political ramifications of the crash

Second homes: repossessed and made into council housing for people that need it.

I don't get the bit about second mortgages. I think the idea is that nobody is evicted, if they are at risk of eviction their home is taken into public ownership and they continue to live their without the cash converting possibilities they may or may not have abused.

[Tactical Genius]

The political ramifications of the crash

"There is, I suppose, a risk that this would make the banks more eager to repossess if they know central or local government would take otherwise hard to shift properties off their hands, but it still doesn't sound like such a bad idea. We are at our best when we are at our boldest, as one senior Labour politician once said."

Good point E10, however isn't this what they have done in the US, ie all loans that are defaulted on automatically go into the "toxic debt pool"that the US government own.

Anyway, as for the banks wanting to repossess, we wuill have our boardroom veto to stop such sharp practices insofar and repossessed houses go under council ownership and administration and the money recouped goes towards paying off the £400 billion quid that they banks owe the government for underwriting their debt.
So in effect, it goes from one government department to another.

"Seems to me the idea makes a lot of sense for owner-occupiers with just the one mortgage, but from what I've read, a lot of the UK housing bubble was driven by middle-class types getting into the buy-to-let market. What proportion of "distressed" mortage holders are people who ocupy their own homes and what percentage are actually owner-occupiers? And, would that make any difference to this plan TG? Would you extend the same offer to landlords as well as owner-occupiers?"

I have thought of that too AG.
My plan will only apply to owner occupies. Landlords and buy-to let speculatoers will go through the usual repossession procedures that they usually do without aid of any kind.
And since those debts are already underwritten by the government, then the properties can passinto council ownership.
I will also consider brining in some kind of relief to these people to limit their exposure to stop a wave of personal bankrupcies.

"Would you do the same for people who took out second mortgages on their own homes? People who had paid off ther houses but then used it as a bank to just buy more stuff - would they get the same help?"

Yes, as long as they are owner-occupiers, then they can stay living there but the ownership reverts to the council.

"The other thing you'd have to figure out would be how to recompense the owners, who might have paid substantial sums of money into the house, even if their equity has somehow smaller (or even negative) in the meantime. Not an insoluble problem, I suppose, but a tricky one."

Not sure i understand what you mean here?
If you take out a loan on your house that you cannot repay, you lose it and get kicked out (under present rules).
Under TG, you lose the ownership of your house, but you can stay living there.
regardless of however you cut it, it is a better deal under my leadership.

"There was a point a few years ago where Brown came up with a scheme to let people have smaller mortgages essentially by allowing the state to have an equity stake in the house you bought. Did that ever go anywhere?"

Not sure if that went beyond the pilot scheme.
It was a bad idea as it kept housing prices rising whilst using taxpayers money to subsidise mortgages.

Any more questions or clarification needed?

[Anton Gramscescu]

The political ramifications of the crash

All clear so far, I think.

Is the assumption councils would or could sell them when conditions improve or is this a permanent increase in the stock of public hosuing? What happens if the current tenants want to move?

[San Bernardhinault]

The political ramifications of the crash

TG's policy is very similar to one I was thinking would be eminently sensible. Although more clearly thought through. I'd vote for him.

[Tactical Genius]

The political ramifications of the crash

"Is the assumption councils would or could sell them when conditions improve or is this a permanent increase in the stock of public hosuing?"

No, this is a permanent move.
The govenment cheaply added to council housing stock after WWII due to the large number of abandoned and war damaged houses.

"What happens if the current tenants want to move?"

Then they can apply to be moved as any council tennant can, they no longer own their home and with the large number of houses coming into council possession, they will not have the 10 year wait they currently have.

[Tactical Genius]

The political ramifications of the crash

I was actually going to call George galloway's show to give him my plan and apply to be his shadow housing minister but feared a condescending putdown.

[Wyatt Earp]

The political ramifications of the crash

He ain't interested if you don't read the Guardian pal.