Return of the Lira? Italian general election, 2018

[ursus arctos]

Farrage does have a German wife, after all. Back channels are available.

[ursus arctos]

From the FT

this week’s poorly subscribed retail bond sale has dashed the governing parties’ hope that Italian households would provide a fresh source of debt market demand for government paper. The sale raised just €2.2bn over four days, far lower than the usual €7-8bn that BTP Italia sales fetch.

Lorenzo Codogno, founder of LC Macro Advisors and former chief economist at the Italian Treasury, puts a 70 per cent likelihood on Italy “muddling through until the European elections” next May.

“Interest rates will keep moving higher, amid high volatility, with the 10-year government bond spread within a 300-400bp range, high enough to produce a slow-burning banking and economic crisis but not a major accident,” he said. “After the European elections, the Italian government may well start adopting a more constructive attitude and gradually become more mainstream — however, this is far from granted.”

I agree with Codogno here, but would note that the remaining 30 percent of outcomes are all really bad for Italians.

[Ginger Yellow]

“Interest rates will keep moving higher, amid high volatility, with the 10-year government bond spread within a 300-400bp range, high enough to produce a slow-burning banking and economic crisis but not a major accident

The ongoing story of Italy, in other words.

[ursus arctos]

BIS reports that Italians deposited EUR 11.5 billion in Swiss banks (mostly in Ticino) between October 2018 and May 2019

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

what remarkable foresight.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I see Ticino has this bunch of charmers.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ticino_League

As well as being pals of the Swiss People's Party, they seem to be pals of the Lega Nord. Would I wrong in thinking some of the capital flighters from Italy would have voted for the Lega Nord? One for the great tome of Rightwing Personal Responsibility, if so.

[ursus arctos]

If by “some” you mean “lots”, then yes.

Banks in Ticino are preferred for linguistic and cultural reasons, but also because many well off Northern Italians have long had bolt hole flats there as “currency hedges” and because a number of Ticenese banks have long made this clientele a serious business priority.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Cheers. That's going to feature in my book. Under "locus classicus"

[ursus arctos]

The latest Eurostat data reveals that 57.9 percent of Italian males between the ages of 25 and 34 are living with their parent(s).

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

I suspect that the italian govt is going to make a lot of the latest French Budget deficit figures.

[ursus arctos]

They already have.

[Lang Spoon]

The latest Eurostat data reveals that 57.9 percent of Italian males between the ages of 25 and 34 are living with their parent(s).

Was it that much lower in the past?

[ursus arctos]

The figure has always been high on a comparative basis, but it has been increasing since the financial crisis and this is the highest figure in recent times.

[Ginger Yellow]

The other shoe has finally dropped for Carige. ECB has taken it over.

[ursus arctos]

Should have been a free hit for anyone’s 2019 predictions

[Ginger Yellow]

Unless they predicted 2018 instead.

[ursus arctos]

Death Pool rules

[Ginger Yellow]

Carige's major shareholder suddenly open to recapitalisation in the face of Tier 2 equitisation. Funny that.

[Nefertiti2]

i guess this as good a place as any for this amazing article about Bengali shopkeepers in Palermo standing up against the Mafia

[Ginger Yellow]

Populism!

[Tubby Isaacs]

Italian!

Latin's fine with me.

[Ginger Yellow]

Basically, the decree on public support measures for Carige was taken word for word from the one under Gentiloni, which M5S in particular campaigned against.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Well nobody said they were policy wonks.

[ursus arctos]

Thanks, GY.

I've been too disheartened to post about the bailout.

[Ginger Yellow]

I'm hoping it was just rushed out in an "oh shit what do we do?" moment and the precautionary recapitalisation isn't really going to happen, but, you know, it's Italy.