So, changing pounds to Euros, then

[Ant van Oviedo]

On a recent visit to England, Mother Ant happily gave me some money from some bonds which had matured, or something. Thing is, she gave me the wad in pounds, and I will at some point have to change them into Euros. As has been widely reported recently, this is not the best time to do so. But is the situation going to get even worse? Should I wait for the exchange rate to recover, or should I change up now before the thing really goes pear-shaped?

Any economist OTFers out there with a crystal ball?

[ursus arctos]

So, changing pounds to Euros, then

If we had one, we wouldn't be hanging out on the internet . . .

A bit more seriously, the short-term trend strikes me as more likely than not to be negative (really sticking my neck out there, eh?).

Two questions.

1) How soon do you anticipate wanting to spend the money? If it is less than six months, you are likely to be better off changing it now. Even if you aren't, my sense is that consumer interest rates on savings in the EU may be a bit higher than those in the UK (except for Northern Rock type situations); if true with regard to wherever you keep your money in Spain, that would be another argument for changing it.

2) Do you anticipate having any pound-denominated expenses within that period? If that is the case, it may be worth keeping the money in sterling.

This advice is of course worth exactly what you paid for it.

[Gerontophile]

So, changing pounds to Euros, then

14 days ago, the rate in Marks & Spencer (which is currently the best around) gave you €1.23 to the pound. Now its €1.18.

I dont think this is a good sign, but it does tend to settle around the €1.20 and bits mark. I would hang on for a week, and if it still below €1.20, it may mean that it the new nadir is €1.18.

Of course, in a roundabout way, it means I have no idea. Its a gamble.

[ursus arctos]

So, changing pounds to Euros, then

Six month graph here.

Not a very pretty picture for those holding sterling and having to spend euros.

[Gerontophile]

So, changing pounds to Euros, then

The problem with that graph is that it might be the bank exchange rate, but anyone changing to euros gets the tourist rate, which is a good 5 eurocents lower.

This Travelex graph for the last week is a lot more likely to be the rate Ant (and myself in 4 weeks) get.

Travelex are shit though.

[ursus arctos]

So, changing pounds to Euros, then

I was assuming that Ant's windfall was significant enough for him to get the bank rate (minus the usual extortionate charges, of course).

[rick derris]

So, changing pounds to Euros, then

ant

you must still have a sterling account, I would be tempted to stick it in there for 12 months and see what happens

you haven't gone back to ovidedo with a bundle of british notes that make you look like some two bob gangster have you?

In the UK in the summer?

[Gerontophile]

So, changing pounds to Euros, then

Yes, but even the banks will offer the tourist rates (Natwest currently at €1.17) unless its SERIOUS cash.

*I just did a wee check with Natwest for £10k to euros, and its the same rate as £100

[ursus arctos]

So, changing pounds to Euros, then

Geez, I didn't realise that. Yet another way you get fleeced.

Given your frequent trips to Euroland, do you have a Euro account?

[Gerontophile]

So, changing pounds to Euros, then

No, if only. TBH, I wouldnt really know how to go about it. I was sensible enough to buy a mobile SIM card for Holland.

[Ginger Yellow]

So, changing pounds to Euros, then

What Ursus said, though I'd extend it to a year. The overwhelming consensus in markets and among economists is that the Bank of England is more likely to cut rates, and do so more steeply than the ECB (which is traditionally more hawkish anyway, but also not facing a massive housing crash). Now some of that is already priced in, but it never is all the way. Best time to exchange, ceteris paribus, will be after UK rates are on the upswing again and Eurozone rates are on the downswing, or are at least flat.

[caja-dglh]

So, changing pounds to Euros, then

If you are moving more than 5k, which I expect you might, you should use an FX broker like HiFX. It is a lot better than the bank rate, but obviously a good number of ticks from market. It is a lot more of a live price though, and they will settle it all to an international account if you need within 3 days.

They are very reliable, and while I am aware their price could be bettered (this service will have to move closer to market over time) they are good at what they do, and will save you over using banks.

[Ant van Oviedo]

So, changing pounds to Euros, then

Thanks for the advice everyone - maybe I should have said that the amount in question is "only" 3,000 quid. Mind you, on that kind of sum, the difference between a decent rate of exchange and a crap one does make a lot of difference.

I won't have to buy anything in pounds in the foreseeable future and I am no hurry to use the money (again, happily), so maybe I'll just stuff it under one of the Qing dynasty vases at Ant Towers and watch the markets for eight months or so.

And, Rick, no, I haven't got a sterling account anymore and yes, I did carry a bundle of notes concealed about my person. It was no bother, although my genitals did contract once or twice at the thought of losing the cash somehow.

[Gerontophile]

So, changing pounds to Euros, then

When I go abroad, I ALWAYS carry a moneybelt, in my carry on luggage, then straight into the bog to wear it under my shirt.

[caja-dglh]

So, changing pounds to Euros, then

I would still contact HiFX or other FX brokers. The rate slides worse the less you move, but they may still be happy to move it.

[Femme Folle]

So, changing pounds to Euros, then

Ant van Oviedo wrote:

I won't have to buy anything in pounds in the foreseeable future and I am no hurry to use the money (again, happily), so maybe I'll just stuff it under one of the Qing dynasty vases at Ant Towers and watch the markets for eight months or so.

Post it to me and I'll keep it safe for you.

[Ant van Oviedo]

So, changing pounds to Euros, then

O.K. - it's on its way. Do look after it, won't you?

[Femme Folle]

So, changing pounds to Euros, then

You know I will.

[Sporting]

So, changing pounds to Euros, then

14 days ago, the rate in Marks & Spencer (which is currently the best around) gave you 1.23 to the pound. Now its 1.18.

I dont think this is a good sign, but it does tend to settle around the 1.20 and bits mark. I would hang on for a week, and if it still below 1.20, it may mean that it the new nadir is 1.18.

Of course, in a roundabout way, it means I have no idea. Its a gamble.

€ 1.1517 today.

[Balderdasha]

€ 1.1517 today.

That's the bank rate. The equivalent Marks & Spencer rate today is 1.124

https://bank.marksandspencer.com/tra...xchange-rates/

[ursus arctos]

Since this thread was first posted, the historical low for the Bank of England rate was 1.02945 (28 Dec 08) and the high was 1.42414 (20 Jul 15)