Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Work and work and work and work til you die....

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

    Work and work and work and work til you die....

    David Blunkett has just announced people should forget about retirement and work until they are physically unable to do so.

    Cheers Dave. That makes me want to kick his dog.

    #2
    Work and work and work and work til you die....

    I mentioned, on here a few weeks back, that I'd like to retire slowly, starting around age 50. I'd go down to a four-day work week for a couple of years and then go down to three for a couple.

    Now, obviously, no one's going to want to have me for one day a week. But maybe I could then transition into freelance and work in fits and starts as I wanted/needed. Sure as hell I don't want to work full-time and then pack it all in one day.

    Try as I might, I really don't think I could fill seven days a week, 52 weeks a year, for twenty or (hopefully) thirty years. Seriously, I start going squirrelly after a week's vacation. Not that I love working, but it does keep me from getting bored.

    Comment


      #3
      Work and work and work and work til you die....

      I've already come to terms with the fact that I'll probably never retire. There will probably come a point when the retirement age will have to rise, but I can't see it being terribly popular.

      Comment


        #4
        Work and work and work and work til you die....

        There will probably come a point when the retirement age will have to rise, but I can't see it being terribly popular.
        It'll be sold as "we're giving people the right to work as long as they choose". And honestly, with people living longer (and healthier), I think people who enjoy their jobs will be happy to work longer.

        For people like you (who've already come to terms with working longer, whatever your reasons), it won't be a hard sell either.

        Thing is, the raise in pensionable age was inevitable. When it was brought in in Canada (in 1960, I believe) the average male lived 62 years and could retire at 65. Now that lives are nearly 20 years longer, the economics don't work any more.

        Comment


          #5
          Work and work and work and work til you die....

          The future demographics are worsened by the fact that while our grandparents were at it like rabbits, and had 4 or 5 kids each, our generation is typically having barely more than 1 kid for every adult. Even the "2.4 kids" joke of the 1980s isn't true anymore, it's now more like 1.8 per couple.

          By 2020 at projected rates there will be more pensioners in the UK than people working - and paying the contributions that go to make up the pot that that year's pensions are paid out of. (You don't have a shoebox on a shelf somewhere that all "your" money's been paid into, folks, it simply doesn't work like that, I'm afraid). So to put it simply, we'll either have to fuck off all the pensioners and break our promise to pay them the pension they've been hoping for, or we'll have to massively raise taxes and pension contributions. As pensioners can still vote (and tend to in higher proportions than younger voters) guess which way that coin will fall on a future PM's desk.

          The only solution to this is massive rates of immigration of people of working age. And we know how popular that solution is.

          Comment


            #6
            Work and work and work and work til you die....

            Or, you come up with personal retirement plans (RRSPs, 401Ks, etc) and make them attractive from a tax POV, and hope to fuck that people look after themselves.

            Comment


              #7
              Work and work and work and work til you die....

              Even private pension schemes work on the basis that for every however many people paying into a fund, there will only be one person drawing out. As soon as that balance tips towards more than planned drawing out as opposed to people still paying in, the fund is bankrupted (well, after the pensions scheme managers themselves have made sure their "administration costs" are assured).

              The only true pension plans that work are the ones where people literally put large amounts of their incomes into banks, for years and years and years, building up a huge nest egg that they then carefully and prudently withdraw while retired.

              This doesn't work for three reasons: a) people are unwilling to make the necessary salary sacrifice while working (to fund a private pension equivalent to 50% of working salary requires investment of around 20% of salary for 30 years); b) when people see the size of the lump sum they've built up while they're working (say £300,000 for a £15k per annum pension) they fall to temptation and decide to spend it before their pension gets paid; and c) when people retire, and see that same lump sum, they similarly can't resist spending it on holiday homes and caravans and shit.

              Comment


                #8
                Work and work and work and work til you die....

                a) You're only half right. People won't make the sacrifice (only 7% of the total allowable contribution room in Canada is used), but your contribution numbers are way off. I'm going home now, but I'll post actual numbers tomorrow if you wish.

                [edit: not 'way off', but pessimistic]

                b) This generally doesn't happen. People who are prudent enough to set aside the money generally don't succumb to the 'splurge' temptation. Plus, the tax whack is horrible on pre-drawn funds.

                c) You could be right, but I don't think so. I have no evidence either way.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Work and work and work and work til you die....

                  I've never understood the contention that we can't afford to pay decent state pensions, but people can afford to provide for their own personal pensions.

                  That can't be true, can it?

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Work and work and work and work til you die....

                    Well, I'll stand by my rough and ready maths above, although I'll be glad to be corrected by any more considered analysis. To fund a £15,000 a year pension at current interest rates would require a lump sum of £300,000 generating that interest. I don't know how long (or how much) it would take to pay into a fund to have £300,000 set aside by age 60, but I know my projected savings aren't anything like that.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Work and work and work and work til you die....

                      Using fairly basic calcs in my company's 401k calculator, I would have a large enough account to cover 50% of my current income by:

                      1)contributing 6%,
                      2)receiving the 4% company match,
                      3)getting a conservative 4% annual rate of return,

                      all over the 30 years I have until I'm 64, on top of the modest amount I currently have from other jobs.

                      The same amount, given a more generous 6.5% rate of return, and continuous contributions, would give me (approximately) a monthly income of 100% of my current salary.

                      This is of course outside of any tax code changes (much of this is dependent on these investments remaining tax free through to retirement) or other outside forces that would stand in the way of funds gathering value over time (full scale depressions, etc).

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Work and work and work and work til you die....

                        Is that inflation adjusted, though, scotian?

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Work and work and work and work til you die....

                          Discussions like these make me actually grateful for the fact that climate change is going to kill us all off before we even have to worry about this. I mean, what the fuck. Work. What is the point? 90% of the 'work' people do is just to keep themselves and others occupied. It's such a waste of life. And then what do you get? £2.50 a week to keep you in tesco value biscuits until you break a fucking hip and die of hypothermia. Fuck that.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Work and work and work and work til you die....

                            TonTon, yeah. You get the same thing with healthcare payments. It just seems like the contributions are shifted "below the line".

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Work and work and work and work til you die....

                              I mentioned, on here a few weeks back, that I'd like to retire slowly, starting around age 50. I'd go down to a four-day work week for a couple of years and then go down to three for a couple.

                              That's pretty much what I did. Though the amount I work hasn't actually declined in as gradual a manner as you describe.

                              I think whatever you do to fund your old-age (a better description and more accurate than retirement I think) it's going to be vulnerable to some degree. I'm coming to realize through practice that aging is no bed of roses, it's expensive, frequently painful and for all too many, very lonely. It also requires planning, a lot of it. Do it now, I didn't. Through a collision of coincidence our circumstances are better than most people's — though I have trouble convincing La Signora of that sometimes — but it could still go pear shaped. A bad investment, an economic meltdown, or serious decline, the death, or incapacity of a carer. There are are no sure things, all you can do is try to stack the odds in your favour.

                              Comment


                                #16
                                Work and work and work and work til you die....

                                Is that inflation adjusted, though, scotian?
                                No - the basic calculation is just straight current salary replacement.

                                However, given that the contributions are based on percent of salary, the dollar figures deposited would continue to increase as I receive salary increases. If my salary increases only at the rate of, for instance, the WorldAtWork merit salary increase rate (which has been between 3 and 4 percent for about a decade now), I'd be making about 2.7 times what I make now in 30 years. The dollar contributions would also rise. That's also excluding the possibility of promotions, etc.

                                It's not a perfect calculation, and if we have several years of significant inflation, it would be tighter than the calcs I made above. But I think it shows that it's not impossible for many people to save a decent amount for their own retirement.

                                Amor is absolutely right about the variables, though. In particular, anything health related can throw the whole thing out the window.

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  Work and work and work and work til you die....

                                  By my calculations, you'd need to put aside roughly 7.5% of your income to meet your retirement goals.

                                  Assuming you earn $60,000 a year now (30,000 pounds) and want to retire on half that, you'd need to put aside $4,200 a year for 30 years at a conservative 6% rate of return. That would give you $376,089. This assumes compounding once a year in a tax-free account.

                                  Then, the drawdown would pay $30,000 a year, and would last for 20 years. This assumes the yearly balance continues to earn an even more conservative 5%.

                                  Now, if you live longer than 20 years past retirement, you could run short. However, what's important to consider is that (both anecdotally and statistically) people generally don't need anywhere near 50% of their pre-retirement income. Why not? Because their home is usually paid for, their dependents are generally out on their own, their work related expenses are nil, they are no longer contributing to long-term savings and retirement plans, and they generally live a more frugal 'retirement' lifestyle. What's more, they usually have a state pension of some kind (in addition to their private funds) to provide a minimum standard of living. A guy named David Trahair has written a good book on this called Smoke & Mirrors. In it, he describes how the 'retirement income levels' have largely been set by the investment companies as a way to frighten people into investing more than they need to with them.

                                  Again, these calculations don't account for inflation in either the contributions or the final value, so I consider it a wash.

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Work and work and work and work til you die....

                                    I've never understood the contention that we can't afford to pay decent state pensions, but people can afford to provide for their own personal pensions.

                                    That can't be true, can it?
                                    I don't want to get into a you and me thing here , but the state can afford to pay a basic pension to everyone over a certain age.

                                    What it can't do, and isn't designed to do, is replace a specific portion of a specific individual's income and keep them in the style of living to which they've become accustomed.

                                    The government should keep you from freezing in the winter and being reduced to eating cat food. A basic standard of living.

                                    If you want to go to Spain for two months each winter, that's where your personal pension comes in.

                                    However, I'm not sure how broad you're being when you say "people can afford". Sure, some people can afford, but not all. And, all things considered, more people probably could, but don't. Retiring with anywhere near the 50% replacement level Rogin mentions is the rarity for people who've been diligent with their contributions for a lot of years. This is tough to do and takes discipline and a fair degree of luck/lack of misfortune.

                                    And as I said before, state pensions were meant to keep people alive for five or seven years past their retirement. Not the 20 or 25 years that we see today. The funding model just doesn't work any more.
                                    And as has also been wisely pointed out, it used to be that many people paid in for each person that drew down. Now it's past the 50/50 point and heading the wrong way.

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      Work and work and work and work til you die....

                                      people generally don't need anywhere near 50% of their pre-retirement income. Why not? Because their home is usually paid for, their dependents are generally out on their own, their work related expenses are nil, they are no longer contributing to long-term savings and retirement plans, and they generally live a more frugal 'retirement' lifestyle.

                                      All true. But as Scotian mentioned there are almost certainly going to be substantial unpredictable expenses especially with regard to health and support. Suppose your spouse dies and you need to go into some kind of assisted living establishment? What if one or both of you suffers from a long-term chronic condition that isn't fully covered under standard medical insurance? The costs are not insignificant. I have a friend whose ninety year old mother requires full-time, live in help, it costs her and her brother $6,000 dollars a month. As you say, most of us are likely to live a long, long time but the life is not going to be care free or pre-paid.

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        Work and work and work and work til you die....

                                        David Blunkett has just announced people should forget about retirement and work until they are physically unable to do so.

                                        On a more simplistic level, since Mr. Blunkett has no power over me or anyone else these days, and since his powers extend to only pontificating in newspaper columns, he can lie down while an 80-year-old hag swivels her bare, wrinkly, unwiped arse on his bearded pudding of a face.

                                        The problems of employment in old age is one I'll solve when I eventually come to it. Personally, if my mind and my bones aren't already gone by then, I wouldn't exactly be averse to the idea of working when old and grey.

                                        I just don't want some ex-Blairite cunt goading me into it years before it might happen. Suck Rupert's cock, Dave.

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          Work and work and work and work til you die....

                                          Some suggestions for ways the state could get enough money to afford to pay proper pensions to all elderly people

                                          1/ Win the euromillions jackpot
                                          2/ Get someone clever to crunch the numbers and then put 20p on a massive 320-horse accumulator and wait for the millions to roll in
                                          3/ Keep entering ringers into Who Wants to be a Millionaire till they've got enough
                                          4/ Invest in high-risk high-return shares in planet-raping oil companies
                                          5/ TAX THE FUCKING RICH
                                          6/ Start a few pyramid selling scams
                                          7/ Launch a new brainwashing cult
                                          8/ Sell knock-off Viagra over the internet

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            Work and work and work and work til you die....

                                            I'm gonna have to work until I'm 68 under the current regulations. And on my 68th birthday I'm going to retire. I don't care if I have to live under a bridge, I'm not going to work a day longer...

                                            Comment

                                            Working...
                                            X