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    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1184787420677586945?s=20

    Comment


      Fire up the Maugham-o-bot! Let's get Bojo in Choko!

      Comment


        Originally posted by E10 Rifle View Post
        Am I reading this right, this 'right to vote on the arrangement every four years' given to Stormont doesn't require a majority from "both communities"? That looks to be storing up a whole world of problems if so.
        Technically, no.

        For the purposes of paragraph 5, cross-community support means:
        (a) a majority of those Members of the Legislative Assembly present and voting, including a majority of the unionist and nationalist designations present and voting; or
        (b) a weighted majority (60%) of Members of the Legislative Assembly present and voting, including at least 40% of each of the nationalist and unionist designations present and voting.

        Meanwhile, can sombebody help me out with the political declaration? There are changes to the level playing field language, but I can't figure out what practical difference they're intended to (or able to) make.


        Original:
        The future relationship must ensure open and fair competition. Provisions to ensure this should cover state aid, competition, social and employment standards, environmental standards, climate change, and relevant tax matters, building on the level playing field arrangements provided for in the Withdrawal Agreement and commensurate with the overall economic relationship. The Parties should consider the precise nature of commitments in relevant areas, having regard to the scope and depth of the future relationship. These commitments should combine appropriate and relevant Union and international standards, adequate mechanisms to ensure effective implementation domestically, enforcement and dispute settlement as part of the future relationship.
        New:
        Given the Union and the United Kingdom's geographic proximity and economic interdependence, the future relationship must ensure open and fair competition, encompassing robust commitments to ensure a level playing field. The precise nature of commitments should be commensurate with the scope and depth of the future relationship and the economic connectedness of the Parties. These commitments should prevent distortions of trade and unfair competitive advantages. To that end, the Parties should uphold the common high standards applicable in the Union and the United Kingdom at the end of the transition period in the areas of state aid, competition, social and employment standards, environment, climate change, and relevant tax matters. The Parties should in particular maintain a robust and comprehensive framework for competition and state aid control that prevents undue distortion of trade and competition; commit to the principles of good governance in the area of taxation and to the curbing of harmful tax practices; and maintain environmental, social and employment standards at the current high levels provided by the existing common standards. In so doing, they should rely on appropriate and relevant Union and international standards, and include appropriate mechanisms to ensure effective implementation domestically, enforcement and dispute settlement. The future relationship should also promote adherence to and effective implementation of relevant internationally agreed principles and rules in these domains, including the Paris Agreement.

        Edit: Maybe it's, as per Nef's experts, that the new wording accommodates the fact that the level playing field language isn't in the WA any more, so the PD has been fleshed out with similar, but not legally operative language.
        Last edited by Ginger Yellow; 17-10-2019, 11:58.

        Comment


          Am told by govt source that Johnson will tell EU leaders that it’s this deal or no deal - but no delays
          Not surprising given that October 31st is what he wants to be the selling point to the electorate rather than whether it's viable. I think they will cobble together some wording whereby the UK is deemed to be out on Oct 31st but only symbolically, with the real legal separations happening after. It won't fool Farage's mob but might fool enough voters who only pay attention to the headline.

          Comment


            GY, the changes in the PD are intended to give the Brexiteers more comfort as to the dismantling of the regulatory state, but may have no real impact in practice, as the E.U. are unlikely to agree a free trade agreement without being assured of a "level playing field".

            Comment


              I can't see how this passes.

              Comment


                For the purposes of paragraph 5, cross-community support means:
                (a) a majority of those Members of the Legislative Assembly present and voting, including a majority of the unionist and nationalist designations present and voting; or
                (b) a weighted majority (60%) of Members of the Legislative Assembly present and voting, including at least 40% of each of the nationalist and unionist designations present and voting.
                I think this only applies to giving an 8 year extension after a given period not a four year one.

                Comment


                  Originally posted by Etienne View Post
                  I can't see how this passes.
                  It's not there in order to pass, It's there in order to portray the opposition as wreckers.

                  Comment


                    Well, yeah, I get that's part of it. But it's a proper agreement, it's not just a symbolic change for the May deal (even if basically every change makes it worse). I can't see why you'd go to that trouble (royally fucking off the DUP in the process) if you weren't hoping on passing it some point, even if you need a GE first.

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by Satchmo Distel View Post

                      I think this only applies to giving an 8 year extension after a given period not a four year one.
                      Ah, fair point, I was going through it quickly. Seems to be (largely) up to the UK how the threshold is decided.

                      For the purposes of paragraph 1, the United Kingdom shall seek democratic consent in Northern Ireland in a manner consistent with the 1998 Agreement. A decision expressing democratic consent shall be reached strictly in accordance with the unilateral declaration made by the United Kingdom on [DATE], including with respect to the roles of the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly.
                      I'd have thought "in a manner consistent with the 1998 Agreement" would involve some sort of "cross-community support" measure but it's not the one I quoted. Don't know if this declaration has been drafted or not.

                      Comment


                        You’ve got the entire media on your side, a majority of minus 20 with the DUP onside -you have to have a general election anyway.

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by Snake Plissken View Post
                          Labour + Lib Dems + SNP + PC Green is more than Tory + DUP isn't it?
                          Nope. Former is 303, latter is 298, with 39 independents being the crucial numbers. Of those, 21 are Tories kicked out by Johnson, with a few Tories who've either left (Rudd, Boles) or been suspended (Elphicke) and the rest are ex-Labour, who've either been variously suspended or have left.

                          Comment


                            OK, although I'm assuming you've got your former and latter the wrong way around there.

                            Comment


                              No, there are 288 Tories and 10 DUP.

                              Comment


                                Government loses first vote on Saturday's procedure, meaning that amendments will be proposed and voted on.

                                Comment


                                  My cousin's wedding is on Saturday. His uncle (on the other side) is an MP. Doesn't look like he's going to be coming.

                                  Comment


                                    Originally posted by Etienne View Post
                                    I can't see how this passes.
                                    I was despondent before, but I've done some maths and I can't see it passing either. By my count, Johnson would have to bat about .750 among Tory rebels and gizzusadeal Labour MPs to get over the line. That's assuming he gets every Tory MP, every pro-Brexit independent MP (Lady Hermon and Stephen Lloyd must surely be weighing options now) and his brother.


                                    Comment


                                      Junker has just made it clear that there will be no extension even if requested, so I guess that that means even for a confirmatory vote? ie it's this deal or no deal.

                                      Comment


                                        I was despondent before, but I've done some maths and I can't see it passing either. By my count, Johnson would have to bat about .750 among Tory rebels and gizzusadeal Labour MPs to get over the line. That's assuming he gets every Tory MP, every pro-Brexit independent MP (Lady Hermon and Stephen Lloyd must surely be weighing options now) and his brother.
                                        I agree. I think they would see No Deal and no extension, despite its blatant illegality, as a better option, and they might assume that Johnson secretly wants the deal to fall anyway so he can go down that route, claiming he has no choice.

                                        Comment


                                          Juncker doesn't get to decide. I assume he's just trying to put pressure on Parliament.

                                          Comment


                                            The Westminster political machinations are a headfuck and I'm not even going to go there at this point, but the body language in Brussels is interesting. Johnson is very upbeat and almost holding back tears of joy. The EU officials seem rather deflated. I don't know whether that's because they feel as if they've conceded too much or that, by doing so, they've helped to make Brexit more likely. They could of course just be knackered.
                                            Last edited by Nocturnal Submission; 17-10-2019, 13:53.

                                            Comment


                                              Originally posted by Ginger Yellow View Post
                                              Juncker doesn't get to decide. I assume he's just trying to put pressure on Parliament.
                                              Yes.

                                              Comment


                                                Originally posted by Reality Checkpoint View Post
                                                Junker has just made it clear that there will be no extension even if requested, so I guess that that means even for a confirmatory vote? ie it's this deal or no deal.
                                                I don't understand that at all. He's betraying the Remainers who are trying to get the extension. There would be no point in the opposition voting against the deal because then they'd get No Deal.

                                                It's a fucking huge betrayal, truly. We are fucked.

                                                EDIT: It also betrays those in Ireland who are not happy with their leader's concessions.
                                                Last edited by Satchmo Distel; 17-10-2019, 13:53.

                                                Comment


                                                  Originally posted by Reality Checkpoint View Post
                                                  Junker has just made it clear that there will be no extension even if requested, so I guess that that means even for a confirmatory vote? ie it's this deal or no deal.

                                                  Oooof!

                                                  Comment


                                                    Originally posted by Ginger Yellow View Post
                                                    Juncker doesn't get to decide. I assume he's just trying to put pressure on Parliament.
                                                    Somebody pointed out it's one of those weasally statements a lawyer says. It's either this deal or no deal. Of course an extension is also neither of those things.

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