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    That's all correct (and the Northern Irish decision can complicate things further), but it isn't going to be the way the press, the parties or most of the great British public are going to see it.

    It will be cast as a matter of "winning" or "losing" a question of massive political importance, which is a dangerous place for a judicial institution that is still trying to establish its legitimacy to find itself.

    Comment


      Agree it will be seen as win/lose, English/Scottish, particularly in the media's eyes - and as an aside no doubt the Sun will be running with two different front pages again tomorrow.

      Of course it's easy to fall into this trap and I'm rooting for 'our side' to 'win' on Tuesday - but for now I'm more interested in what has happened behind the scenes here. The fact that the Scottish court is clearly pointing towards the evidence provided by the government being unable to prove that their reasons for proroguing were as they stated (to advance the domestic agenda) is aligning with the information that Grieve seems to have, and with David Allen Green's theorising about the missing witness statement. I'm putting a lot of hope on Friday's full judgment from the court sign posting some of this more explicitly, and we are still waiting on the government complying (or not complying) with the Grieve humble address. And that's without any further leaks emerging. I don't see how they can ride this out, but of course they'll try.

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        I think you will be disappointed in that respect.

        As I read the summary, the Scottish appeal essentially rested on the fact that they believed that the government bore the burden of proving that the stated reason for the progrogation was the real one, and that they failed miserably to meet that burden. The missing witness statement is a key part of that failure, but the court doesn't need to analyze it in detail.

        Comment


          At this point, do we even want Johnson to fall? He can't get anything through parliament, he may be legally compelled to be the person who signs the letter asking for an extension to No Deal. Isn't it better to keep playing puppetmaster with him and then vote No Confidence on the grounds of accumulated evidence when it feels like his populist appeal has foundered as his 'strong man' image stands in contrast to his inability to get anything done.

          Comment


            I have that thought too - whilst parliament is not able to sit, it means they can't call a GE, which they don't want to. If Parliament sits, they'll just keep beating him, but not actually having a GE either, which will not be a good look.

            Comment


              A plethora of poll findings by Lord Ashcroft on Northern Ireland, but the main ones see 51% express a preference for a united Ireland, 55% would rather remain in the EU than the UK, and 60% support the backstop:

              https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/0...-a-knife-edge/

              Comment


                Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
                I think you will be disappointed in that respect.

                As I read the summary, the Scottish appeal essentially rested on the fact that they believed that the government bore the burden of proving that the stated reason for the progrogation was the real one, and that they failed miserably to meet that burden. The missing witness statement is a key part of that failure, but the court doesn't need to analyze it in detail.
                The judges have slightly different takes on it - Lord Drummond Young is in line with your reading:

                It was incumbent on the UK Government to show a valid reason for the prorogation the documents provided showed no other explanation for this [other than to avoid scrutiny]. The only inference that could be drawn was that the UK Government and the Prime Minister wished to restrict Parliament.

                While Lord Carloway goes further:

                the content of the documents produced by the respondent demonstrated that this [to stymie parliamentary scrutiny of the executive] was the true reason for the prorogation.

                Keir Starmer is certainly running with the latter:

                But for a court to say that the documents really point one way, that they undermine his case to a point where they have ruled him unlawful, that’s an incredibly powerful thing for them to have done.

                And while he would say that wouldn't he, I'm still expecting that in the full judgment with further reasoning set out, the Lord Carloway opinion has to be backed up in some way, because it's a strong statement to make. For the record Lord Brodie was also on "inference".

                Comment


                  Interesting.

                  I read Carloway's reference to "content" as meaning what wasn't there, rather than what was, but one can certainly read it the other way.

                  Seems to me that the most effective political attack line here is "Johnson lies to the Queen", though I tend to think that case will ultimately rest on inference.

                  Do we know if the final decision is going to be three separate statements or a single judgement?

                  Comment


                    From my occasional brushes with Scottish law (not like that), I'd guess three separate statements.

                    Comment


                      Ah, that would be highly unusual here, and would seem to me to make the Supreme Court's task yet more challenging.

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by Janik View Post
                        At this point, do we even want Johnson to fall? He can't get anything through parliament, he may be legally compelled to be the person who signs the letter asking for an extension to No Deal. Isn't it better to keep playing puppetmaster with him and then vote No Confidence on the grounds of accumulated evidence when it feels like his populist appeal has foundered as his 'strong man' image stands in contrast to his inability to get anything done.
                        I think that is very much what's playing out isn't it? He's looked like an absolute dilweed all month. In the words of Paul Keating, I want to do you slowly.

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                          Laura spinning furiously.

                          [URL="https://mobile.twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1171719368360824832"]https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1171719368360824832[/URL]

                          "Believed this was likely in late July"?

                          Dom Cummings also has a PlayStation 6. No, you can't see it, it's at his uncles house.

                          Comment


                            She will believe any old shite they tell her, won't she?

                            Comment


                              I'm genuinely not sure that "belief" comes into it.

                              She appears to see her role as a stenographer for the Government.

                              Comment


                                And she can't do that correctly - e.g. she types "engraged" and fails to correct it.

                                Comment


                                  So while all this drags on, the EU still keeps making sounds that there will be no extension forthcoming, and it turns out that the new EU trade Commissioner is going to be perhaps the most belligerent and pig-ignorant man in Ireland.

                                  Comment


                                    If there is an general election scheduled, there will be an extension

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                                      A day or so old, but...we really do need to 'Remain and Reform' the EU https://twitter.com/joncstone/status...84576213692417

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                                        The Fundamentalist Idiot Wing of the Indy movement seems convinced success in the Scottish courts on this risks imperiling the whole Indy movement, cos, reasons. They really seem to think anything that but Hell Brexit will tank them in the polls.

                                        Personally i I think a v soft Brexit and/or border in the Irish Sea (and the precedent it gives) are the most likely ways a Scexit will be made real, and Indy Scotland a feasible economy. And I'd rather the medicine and food shortages and deaths didn't happen but that's just me.

                                        Comment


                                          The Yellowhammer document has been released.

                                          Comment


                                            Up 85% of HGVs won't be ready
                                            Cross channel flow down to 40-60% of current, for three months when it may rise to 50-70%
                                            Delays of 1.5-25 days for HGVs entering France
                                            Passenger delays at St Pancras, Dover and the tunnel
                                            Medical supplies impacted
                                            Certain types of fresh food supplies decreased
                                            'Low risk' of contamination of water supply due to chemical shortages
                                            Some cross border financial transactions impacted
                                            Law enforcement data disrupted
                                            Increase in energy prices
                                            Health care for expats and tourists ceases
                                            Damage to Gibraltar's economy, four+ hour delays at the border for at least a few months
                                            Protests and counter protests across country
                                            Regional traffic disruption
                                            Potential delays at Dartford Crossing impacting fuel supplies in London/SE
                                            One paragraph completely redacted
                                            Low income groups disproportionately impacted by food price rises
                                            282 EU/EEA fishing vessels to illegally enter UK waters (or already be in). leading to clashes between vessels, violent disputes and blockading of ports

                                            Comment


                                              And on the other request (to disclose the communication over prorogation), Gove has written to Grieve refusing to meet the request on the grounds that it is "unprecedented, disproportionate and inappropriate".

                                              Comment


                                                And that's a fraction of the disclosure required by the law.

                                                Comment


                                                  The Sunday Times reporter who got the leaked document is stating it is the same document, apart from now 'Base Scenario' has been changed to 'HMG Reasonable Worst Case Planning Assumptions'.

                                                  [Edit - and she isn't saying it, but the redacted paragraph 15 is said to be about oil refineries, strikes and fuel shortages]
                                                  Last edited by Walt Flanagans Dog; 11-09-2019, 19:44.

                                                  Comment


                                                    Of course, "Reasonable Worst Case" is an oxymoron

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