The Brexit Thread

[DCI Harry Batt]

I'm very glad AV failed. Horrible system.

I see the Greens have decided they want me to stop voting for them, so have done a deal with the Liberals for that by-election seat. Ah well. Abstention here I come.

[Duncan Gardner]

That explains why Lucas was so grumpy at the recent Conference. Clearly agonising over the Wind up TonTon Policy Paper

[E10 Rifle]

The Greens and the LibDems really don't believe in the same things at all. Not a good move.

[DCI Harry Batt]

Can't see much in it for the Greens, tbh, even if I'm the only erstwhile voter out off. But you never know.

[Duncan Gardner]

@E10- they agree on the currently biggest issue (Brexit) and on a aelfish secondary one (electoral reform). If the Libdems offer summat in return let's parlez...

[George C.]

The Greens and the LibDems really don't believe in the same things at all. Not a good move.

Always predictable though.

Far too many of the ever dopey electorate equate them as standing for much of the same thing anyway.

That and subsequently the only way the Greens will ever get 'mainstream' support...

[Duncan Gardner]

Ps I can work with a party whose possible next leader admits beaking off school to see 70s proggers Snoozertramp. Bloody Well Right mate

Pps TT closer to mark on this one. Greens are v weak in the area but the Party of Wales should really contest every seat. LivDems cant offer ER even if they go back to 50 or 60 seats

[George C.]

Except the polls in their current state show them winning 100+ seats.

That and an imminent NDB makes the likely next GE result extremely volatile.

[Lang Spoon]

Uniform swing polls mean fuck all. The Lib Dems could poll higher than Labour nationwide and still end up with fewer seats than the SNP (if the libs rack up votes in the wrong places to make a difference).

And the Nats could conceivably end up with closer to their current 35 than back up in the 50s depending how the individual battles go (though I'd expect the terminally useless Slab to lose almost every seat bar Murray and mibees that egregious cunt Paul Sweeney, and Ross Thompson in Aberdeen South at the very least is surely toast for the Scottish Tories. I'd laugh like a drain if that duplicitous austerity enabling mealy mouthed piece of shit Jo Swinson lost her seat again, esp if she is anointed Lib Dem supremo).

You get nowt with FPTP for coming 2nd all over the country. Lib dems could easily repeat 1983 SDP in terms of expectation and apparent popularity not being met by results. Though a 4 party mix in FPTP is indeed massively volatile.

We need some real thorough constituency polling, unfortunately only Ashcroft can afford that.

[George C.]

Except I'm talking as of now.

As in recent polls which can hardly be more accurate than any notional swing in an actual election, maybe virtually 3 years away.

[Lang Spoon]

I want to see how this is playing out in individual constituencies. But no one has the cash to do this properly. Christ, Scotland or Wales barely get a proper poll, usually just statistically useless subsamples. And almost never a breakdown at Constituency level. The next election could be 3 years or 3 months away, there's a good chance Johnson or Hunt will have to call one if their majority is cut down even more (especially if they want to betray the Bally "Irish" like they did with Carson way back when- the only way to have no Backstop is a border in the Irish sea, and that means no reliance on stinky DUP votes).

[George C.]

Fair enough, it has happened on various occasions, but critically not how most pollsters work.

And definitely in Scotland.

Though I do agree with your earlier point about any spread/individual party uplift not being uniform.

[Guy Profumo]

Surprise surprise.

Priti Patel would be in favour of supporting a Prime Minister who would commit high treason against that of the rule of law and the supremacy of parliament



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48980408

[Antepli Ejderha]

Surprise surprise.

Priti Patel would be in favour of supporting a Prime Minister who would commit high treason against that of the rule of law and the supremacy of parliament



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48980408

Is that her supporting Netanyahu again?

[Guy Profumo]

Is that her supporting Netanyahu again?

Johnson

[Guy Profumo]

Someone should remind these fuckers what happened the last time someone suspended Parliament, and how well that went.


And the time before that when someone tried it we cut the bastard's head off.

[ursus arctos]

[URL="https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1150319896225570817?s=21"]https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1150319896225570817[/URL]

[Guy Profumo]

Then Patel has contradicted herself.

If there's an attempt to prorogue Parliament, than it's only the courts that can overturn that if Parliament itself doesn't.

[Satchmo Distel]

Courts may be even more important in countries with an unwritten constitution.

[ursus arctos]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1151137972374233088

Sterling plunged to a 27-month low against the dollar on Tuesday and hit new six-month lows versus the euro, extending losses as the two candidates to be Britain’s next prime minister vied to outgun each other on taking a harder Brexit stance.

[Flynnie]

My mom has offered to pay off quite a few of my student loans after selling her house for stupid money, so that couldn't have come at a better time.

[Ginger Yellow]

Voting on the Commission president is wrapping up. Looks like von der Leyen has the vote judging from what the groups have been saying today.

[Ginger Yellow]

Berlusconi just voted. I forgot he'd become an MEP.

[ursus arctos]

She makes it with nine votes to spare

The other votes should be less dramatic now

[Nocturnal Submission]

Interesting back-story:

In 1977, she started studying economics at the University of Göttingen. At the height of the fear of communist terrorism in West Germany, she fled to London in 1978 after her family was told that the Red Army Faction (RAF) was planning to kidnap her to extort her father. She spent more than a year in hiding in London, where she lived under the name Rose Ladson to avoid detection and enrolled at the London School of Economics. She said London was "the epitome of modernity: freedom, the joy of life, trying everything" which "gave me an inner freedom that I have kept until today." She returned to Germany in 1979 but lived with a security detail at her side for several years.