The Brexit Thread

[Ginger Yellow]

"Tory rebellion against Theresa May builds after Brexit delay"

[Furtho]

The lack of crisis feeling in the streets in London seems to belie how utterly unprepared this country would be for no-deal. I would expect significantly more anxiety.

Well, to be fair there are now ads at my railway station aimed at business owners to do with preparation for Brexit. They went up just last week.

[Satchmo Distel]

They have to assume that the odds on dropping out on April 12th are far heavier than they were for March 29th. The other options have closed down significantly and there won't be an extension beyond April 12 unless there is something radically different being offered by the UK for negotiation. Minor tweaks are no longer in play.

And to echo GY, it's fucking incredible that the backbenchers who propped up May in the vote of confidence could not foresee this outcome given her modus operandi since 2016.

[Ray de Galles]

The lack of crisis feeling in the streets in London seems to belie how utterly unprepared this country would be for no-deal. I would expect significantly more anxiety.

There's likely to be around a million people marching "in the streets of London" tomorrow on the issue and I'm not quite sure what you expect to see as a visual representation of "crisis feeling"? Rest assured there is real concern from anyone I speak to with regard to the cliff edge we're close to.

[Ray de Galles]

It's staggering that only 9 days out from a massive calamity, the British PM goes to the EU summit and essentially just filibusters and stonewalls for 90 minutes instead of going with a plan, thereby forcing the other leaders to make one for her..

So that's where Mourinho's gone, he's working as May's SPAD.

[Nefertiti2]

gone past three million

[ad hoc]

Theresa May’s leadership is under increasing pressure after a week of shifting Brexit policies, including raising the prospect of a no-deal Brexit on March 29, only to accept an offer from EU leaders that leaves open the chance of an extended delay to the UK’s exit. Some Conservative MPs and civil servants believe the UK prime minister will have to resign if she again fails to win parliamentary approval for her withdrawal deal next week. One cabinet minister said: “If she loses the vote next week I can’t see how she could carry on.” A Downing Street official said: “I don’t think parliament is going to vote for any deal . . . It’s like she’s given up inside.” Mrs May has faced repeated threats to her leadership since the Tories’ disappointing 2017 election performance. However, she cannot be formally challenged until this December after party rebels failed to oust her last December. Thursday’s European Council summit, where EU leaders proposed delaying Brexit to at least April 12, did not appear to have improved the prime minister’s domestic fortunes. Nick Boles, a Conservative MP, told the BBC it was a “pretty sorry situation when a couple more weeks is something we should be grateful for”. Divisions within the Conservative party have deepened since Mrs May made a televised address late on Wednesday, in which she criticised MPs for playing “political games” and implied she was ready to take the UK out of the EU without a deal. Julian Smith, the Tory chief whip, had described the statement as “appalling” in conversations with Tory MPs. Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 committee of backbenchers, told the FT on Friday he had met Mrs May earlier this week but declined to say what they discussed. One Tory MP who voted for Mrs May’s deal, said: “Every single person I speak to in my party is saying she needs to go — and she needs to go yesterday.” Another Tory MP said: “We were all encouraging each other to contact Brady . . . It’s been open talk in the tea rooms . . . Anyone else would have gone by now.”

The prime minister tried to mend fences with MPs after the European Council, saying that she understood they had “difficult jobs to do” and that she was “very clear” she would “work with the House [of Commons] on how to proceed”. But control of events could now be slipping from her hands. John Bercow, the Speaker of the House of Commons, will rule whether she can bring her deal back for a third vote in parliament; he has vowed to block it if it is not substantially changed. Separately, 18 MPs, including the Conservatives Mr Boles and Oliver Letwin, and Labour’s Hilary Benn, have launched a manoeuvre to take control of the parliamentary agenda. They have proposed an amendment to a government motion on Monday, setting out a scheme for MPs to vote on different Brexit options on Wednesday. MPs could also use parliamentary time to call on the government to negotiate a longer Brexit extension.

Ta Nef

[Moonlight Shadow]

I just wonder how much the EU really want to avoid a No Deal situation ? They seem to be further down the line in preparation than the UK (the latest report on readiness is scary reading when it comes to the facilitated customs procedure, IT not ready, half of businesses did not bother recording themselves as trusted traders, etc), they have prepared a number of temporary measures to keep some things moving and they face a country where a blocking minority is convinced that No Deal is just a small bump on the road towards glory. A couple of months in a No Deal situation might be the only way to decisively shift things towards more amenable dispositions whilst limiting exposure for EU members, with the proviso that a financial package is ready to help Ireland cope with the far greater impact on them?

[ad hoc]

Yes I have been wondering what their no deal planning looks like for Ireland. Clearly that's the country which will be worse affected by such an outcome, and there must have been meetings where they work out some form of deep seated support for Ireland under a no deal.

[Moonlight Shadow]

It demands confirmation but there is a financial package ready to roll for Ireland I gather.

Incidentally the country that seems best prepared for No Deal is.....The Netherlands...

[Ginger Yellow]

It's official. NB, by agreement with the UK, the extension will not involve re-opening the Withdrawal Agreement.

8) By letter of 20 March 2019, the United Kingdom submitted a request for an extension of the period provided for in Article 50(3) TEU until 30 June 2019, with a view to finalising the ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement.
(9) On 21 March 2019, the European Council agreed to an extension until 22 May 2019, provided the Withdrawal Agreement is approved by the House of Commons in the following week. If that is not the case, the European Council agreed to an extension until 12 April 2019 and indicated that it expected the United Kingdom to indicate a way forward before 12 April 2019 for its consideration.
(10) This extension will have the consequence that the United Kingdom will remain a Member State with all the rights and obligations set out in the Treaties and under Union law. If the United Kingdom is still a Member State on 23-26 May 2019, it will be under the obligation to hold the elections to the European Parliament in accordance with Union law. It is to be noted that the United Kingdom would have to give notice of the poll by 12 April 2019 in order to hold such elections.
(11) Such an extension excludes any re-opening of the Withdrawal Agreement. Any unilateral commitment, statement or other act by the United Kingdom should be compatible with the letter and the spirit of the Withdrawal Agreement.
(12) As provided for in Article 50(4) TEU, the United Kingdom has not taken part in the discussions of the European Council concerning this decision nor in its adoption. However, as set out in the letter from the Permanent Representative of the UK to the European Union, Sir Tim Barrow, of 22 March 2019, it has agreed, in accordance with Article 50(3) TEU, to the extension of the period referred to in that Article and to this decision,

[Diable Rouge]

I just wonder how much the EU really want to avoid a No Deal situation ? They seem to be further down the line in preparation than the UK (the latest report on readiness is scary reading when it comes to the facilitated customs procedure, IT not ready, half of businesses did not bother recording themselves as trusted traders, etc), they have prepared a number of temporary measures to keep some things moving and they face a country where a blocking minority is convinced that No Deal is just a small bump on the road towards glory. A couple of months in a No Deal situation might be the only way to decisively shift things towards more amenable dispositions whilst limiting exposure for EU members, with the proviso that a financial package is ready to help Ireland cope with the far greater impact on them?

A fairly blatant hint about Plan B:

http://twitter.com/MartinSelmayr/status/1109017358805417985

[San Bernardhinault]

Fucking Tony Fucking Blair needs to fucking shut the fucking fuck up, unless he's trying to increase support for an immediate No Deal Brexit.

[Nocturnal Submission]

Does anyone know if the DUP would prefer a Soft Brexit? It would seem to pose less of a risk to the Union.

[Moonlight Shadow]

A fairly blatant hint about Plan B:

http://twitter.com/MartinSelmayr/status/1109017358805417985

I remember a faction of the Leave galaxy (represented by recent Remain convert Oliver Norgrove amongst others) called for an EEA transition lasting 10 to 20 years in order to help shape the future EU/UK relationship slowly and to everybody's satisfaction...

[Diable Rouge]

Does anyone know if the DUP would prefer a Soft Brexit? It would seem to pose less of a risk to the Union.

No evidence of them moving towards a Soft Brexit so far:

http://twitter.com/duponline/status/1109131523226304512

[Nocturnal Submission]

More "the EU will make concessions" at the 11th hour thinking. Seems to be a lot of that around, especially in the ERG.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

The prime minister missed an opportunity at the EU Council to put forward proposals which could have improved the prospects of an acceptable withdrawal agreement and help unite the country.

That failure is all the more disappointing and inexcusable given the clear divisions and arguments which became evident amongst EU member states when faced with outcomes they don’t like.

As we have always said, negotiations with the EU inevitably go down to the wire and the government has been far too willing to capitulate before securing the necessary changes which would get an agreement through the House of Commons.

The government has consistently settled for inferior compromises when they didn’t need to and when there was, and is, more negotiating with the EU to be done.

Lectures by the prime minister putting the blame on others cannot disguise the responsibility her government bears for the current debacle and the fact that her agreement has been twice overwhelmingly rejected in parliament.

The prime minister has now agreed with the EU to kick the can down the road for another two weeks and humiliatingly revoke her oft-stated pledge that the UK would leave the EU on 29th March.

Nothing has changed as far as the withdrawal agreement is concerned.

Nothing fundamentally turns on the formal ratification of documents which the attorney general has already said do not change the risk of the UK being trapped in the backstop.

The DUP has been very clear throughout that we want a deal which delivers on the referendum result and which works for all parts of the UK and for the EU as well. But it must be a deal that protects the Union.

That remains our abiding principle. We will not accept any deal which poses a long term risk to the constitutional and economic integrity of the United Kingdom.

Fucking morons. Fit for nothing more complicated than marching into machine guns until their barrels overheat.

More "the EU will make concessions" at the 11th hour thinking. Seems to be a lot of that around, especially in the ERG.

People are confusing the late compromises that can be struck when the EU is trying to expand, or do something new, and where everything is still up for grabs, with this process, which is essentially the EU telling the UK what is the bare minimum it needs to do to leave the european union while avoiding an economic war.

[Lang Spoon]

[URL]https://twitter.com/rcbregman/status/1109002110455214080[/URL]

[URL]https://twitter.com/rcbregman/status/1108069306783485952[/URL]

not strictly Brexit, but sums up what is wrong with BBC news/current affairs coverage. Bias or just pig ignorance and lazy sensationalism

[Ray de Galles]

Nothing revelatory here but I like the brio Hare delivers it with :
On Brexit, we’re feeling the aftershocks of earthquakes that happened years ago

[Moonlight Shadow]

According to them helpful geek types analysing stuff online, the petition data is very much kosher, very little evidence of any kind of nefarious activity. Relentless moron JHB implied you could sign more than once with the same email adress, you can but you the get notified that you extra attempts have been rejected...JHB dedication to ignorance is admirable...

[Nocturnal Submission]

It doesn't really surprise me that around 20% of the people who voted to Remain have signed an online petition.

Let me know when it goes past 16,141,241.

[Lang Spoon]

Oh come on, petitions would never get the kind of engagement a referendum would get.

[Satchmo Distel]

So that's where Mourinho's gone, he's working as May's SPAD.

Suck penis all day? (according to a Google search)

[Guy Profumo]

Never fear: Uri Geller to the rescue -


https://mobile.twitter.com/JewishTel...45636216152065