The Brexit Thread

[Satchmo Distel]

She can't extend A50 without a massive backlash from Brexiteers, which would make an election very risky indeed. Polls cannot measure that risk.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

What difference would that make? She's not 10 seats short of making this work, she's 120+

[HeavyDracula]

This weekend, the Tories in the neighbouring constituency selected their sitting MP as their candidate for an election which is 3 years off. Something is happening.

[Snake Plissken]

And Nick Boles is trying not to be deselected in Grantham.

As well as the Mail doing a 20 page hit job on Cobyn and oh, look, time for Labour anti-semitism to appear again.

[George C.]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/s...054893062?s=19

This I participated in, though not enthused by the findings obviously.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/10...474360321?s=19

[Tubby Isaacs]

Not worth that risk to get 4 more MPs, surely?

The Bower stuff on Corbyn looks laughably bad. I always thought Bower was some sort of heavyweight, even if hardly anybody read him, and that he'd have to be accurate because of our libel laws. But Jonathan Portes says stuff about him in (I presume) the Blair book was full of errors.

[Tubby Isaacs]

It's a very big sample size and that methodology that worked in 2017. So I think we need to take the figures seriously, even so. Be interesting to know what the Scotland projection is. Can't see either the Tories or Labour holding their seats. But looks like one of them is.

[ad hoc]

It's a very big sample size and that methodology that worked in 2017. So I think we need to take the figures seriously, even so. Be interesting to know what the Scotland projection is. Can't see either the Tories or Labour holding their seats. But looks like one of them is.

But as we saw in 2017, the polls before the election was called and the final result were miles apart

[George C.]

On the basis of previous Survation polls, going back to the autumn, Labour susceptible to SNP, SNP susceptible to CONs.

[ad hoc]

Fine letter from Joan Twelves, former leader of Lambeth Council and close friend of Corbyn and McDonnell, which expresses what many of us on the left are now feeling:

Dear Jeremy,

I was appalled to wake up to hear the Tory spin that you might accept the paltry concessions offered by the PM to push Brexit through Parliament.

Concessions on things which should be happening anyway. And even if the Tories are prepared to row back on a few workplace rights they have spent the last decades demolishing, and offer some more Sports Direct depots to the former coalfield communities, what about our environmental rights, what about our consumer rights, what about our rights as European citizens to travel, study, work, live, and love across our neighbouring continent, what about the rights of EU citizens in this country, what about all of our rights to free movement across the world – or is that just for the rich? Where are your demands on these rights? Where are the Tories’ concessions on these?

The fact that I could believe this possible is an indictment of the position you have taken on Brexit ever since the referendum – indeed during it when I was told by your staff that you felt you had done enough meetings on Europe after just doing a couple, and therefore could not do one in south London with me.

You are making it impossible for comrades like myself to defend your Leadership. Brexit is an anti-internationalist, anti-solidarity, anti-peace, anti-immigrant right-wing project – there is no fantasy Lexit which will overturn austerity; indeed, the reverse as the country is impoverished and the NHS crumbles for lack of staff, medicines and funding.

Good comrades are leaving the Party in Vauxhall because you have not only failed to provide clear and decisive leadership against Brexit but also because you have failed to take any action against our MP, who has been consistently allowed to break the whip and collude with the most rabidly right-wing of Brexiteers such as Nigel Farage and Arron Banks. Motions of no confidence in Kate Hoey have won unanimous support across the Party here, but nothing ever happens; but it is more than clear that nobody here will campaign for her if she is allowed to restand as our PPC. The trade union sponsorship the CLP has received for her for the last 30 years has recently been stopped. It is time the Party did the same.

Criticism of the institutions of the EU is fine. But you have to make them in the light of the objective circumstances of the time; and the objective circumstances now are that the right are advancing across the world and we – you – need to be leading the fightback against them. Rather than bunkering into a ‘socialism in one country’ world view, the fight needs to be taken into Europe, where we need to be working with socialists, not against them.

I hate referendums. But I believe that another is unavoidable if the anti-Europe vote in the first one is to be overturned. You need to not just support another vote, but make it very, very clear that you will campaign and fight to challenge the original decision and support Remain and Reform loudly and proudly.

I believe the advice you are receiving is wrong. You need to get out of the bunker and the Westminster bubble and talk to comrades who take a pro-European view. More than happy to get on the bus and come and chat any time.

Comradely greetings,

Joan Twelves

[Tubby Isaacs]

Fuck.

I assume the Lib Dems gain the one they lost by 2 votes last time.

[Diable Rouge]

May effectively confirming to Parliament that she doesn't expect any agreement this month:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-politics-live

[Duncan Gardner]

What's the similarity between Neil Kinnock and Jeremy Corbyn?

Kate Hoey has fcuked both of them...

[hobbes]

JC replies to May...

Jeremy Corbyn responds to Theresa May’s Ministerial statement on leaving the EU

Jeremy Corbyn MP, Leader of the Labour Party, speaking in the House of Commons, said:

***CHECK AGAINST DELIVERY***

Our country is facing the biggest crisis in a generation, and yet this Prime Minister continues to recklessly run down the clock. We were promised there would be a deal last October – that didn’t happen. We were promised a meaningful vote on a deal in December – that didn’t happen. We were told to prepare for a further meaningful vote this week after the Prime Minister again promised to secure “significant and legally binding” changes to the backstop and that hasn’t happened.

Now the Prime Minister comes before this House with more excuses and more delays. In her statement the Prime Minister has failed to answer even the most basic questions: What progress has she made on identifying and working up the alternative arrangements? Have they been presented to the EU? If not when will they be? And will she set them out before this House and ask for its approval of them?

In truth it appears the Prime Minister has just one real tactic: to run down the clock hoping Members of this House are blackmailed into supporting a deeply flawed deal. This is an irresponsible act. She is playing for time and playing with people’s jobs, our economic security and the future of our industry.

Yesterday growth figures show the lowest growth since 2012. Our manufacturing sector is mired in recession. The decision by Nissan last week to pull its investment from its Sunderland plant may only be the thin end of the wedge.

The Prime Minister, the Chancellor and the Business Secretary will be hearing the same warnings as I am – that several more large manufacturers, household names employing tens of thousands of people, are poised to follow in Nissan’s footsteps.

Earlier today we heard from the Leader of the House that the next meaningful vote may not happen until after the EU summit on the 21st March, just days before Brexit.

If that is not the case, can the Prime Minister tell the House today when the meaningful vote will be?

We also learned from the Leader of the House that any changes to the backstop won’t be written into the legally-binding Withdrawal Agreement. Can the Prime Minister confirm that?

Is the Prime Minister really prepared to risk people’s livelihoods, jobs and investment in a vain attempt to push her deeply flawed deal through Parliament?

The Prime Minister has just told members of this House to hold their nerve. Tell that to Nissan workers in Sunderland and the thousands more worried about their job security.

Mr Speaker, no minister serious about protecting jobs in this country would allow a Prime Minister to deliberately run down the clock and play chicken with people’s livelihoods.

To stand by and do nothing would be a complete dereliction of duty.

As I received the Prime Minister’s letter yesterday in response to Labour’s Brexit plan it became clearer to me that the Prime Minister is merely engaged in the pretence of working across Parliament to find solutions.

She has not indicated she will move one iota away from her rejected deal or any of her red lines.

On the backstop the Prime Minister has pointed out Labour also has concerns. But let’s make no mistake about it – that has never been our major issue with the Prime Minister’s deal.

Indeed in order to stop the UK falling into the backstop you need a permanent customs union and a strong single market deal. That is key to maintaining an open border on the island of Ireland. That is key to protecting jobs, industry and living standards in this country.

And that is why it’s backed by businesses who employ and trade unions who represent millions of workers in this country.

The Prime Minister says there is no need to negotiate a customs union as her deal provides for the benefits of being in one. I’m afraid, Mr Speaker, that is simply not the case.

The deal the Prime Minister negotiated means there will be barriers to trade in goods and there will not be frictionless trade. Putting manufacturers across the country at a huge disadvantage.

This is made quite clear in the Political Declaration. Especially when it says and I quote: ‘the parties will form separate markets and distinct legal orders.’ And concedes that it ‘can lead to a spectrum of different outcomes for administrative processes as well as checks and controls’ nothing is secured.

The Prime Minister is also trying to win support for her deal by promising to protect workers’ rights after Brexit. But just look at the record of the party opposite. They attacked trade union rights through the Trade Union Act, opposed the minimum wage, introduced employment tribunal fees and the public sector pay cap.

For many of them ripping up rights is what Brexit is all about.

Take the Secretary of State for International Trade. He once wrote: “It is too difficult to hire and fire, and too expensive to take on new employees. It is intellectually unsustainable to believe that workplace rights should remain untouchable.”

No wonder trade union leaders like Tim Roache of the GMB and Frances O’Grady of the TUC have rejected the Prime Minister’s inadequate pledges.

And it is vital too that we keep pace with the best consumer safeguards and environmental protections especially in light in the biodiversity report this week.

Mr Speaker there is a sensible way forward but the Prime Minister is refusing to listen.

Labour’s alternative has been widely welcomed as a way of breaking the impasse. From business to trade unions, EU leaders and even some Conservative members.

But the Prime Minister refuses to listen.

Mr Speaker I urge all members across this House to think about the damage the Prime Minister’s strategy is doing the threat to industry and skilled jobs in communities across Britain.

Now is not the time to stand idly by, now is the time to stand up and do the right thing: to rule out No Deal and back Labour’s alternative plan.

[Lang Spoon]

Fuck.

I assume the Lib Dems gain the one they lost by 2 votes last time.

Yeah unfortunately Gethins will be toast. I'd imagine Slab will lose almost all their seats but the Tories will keep most of theirs barring Aberdeen South, the rabid Unionist Anyone But Nats vote/fish concerns means they are mostly safe unfortunately.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Probably Wishart in a bit of trouble too. Maybe the SNP lost him and Gethins, but pick up all Labour's except Murray?

That would be

SNP 39
Con 14
Lab 1
LD 5

Or could be they hold those 2, and Lab hold 3?

[Tubby Isaacs]

I suppose the Lib Dems got very lucky last time with such a low vote share. They could easily get fewer than last time.

[George C.]

https://twitter.com/britainelects/st...445889536?s=19

[Tubby Isaacs]

Tories now ahead in the Britain Elects poll tracker too.

[E10 Rifle]

But isn't all this ignoring Chukka's Great New Centrist Party, which is going to blow everyone's minds and break the whole mould of politics?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Ha ha.

Has anybody mentioned them joining the Lib Dems? Why don't they just do that? They'll lose their seats anyway (I can't think of any apart from David Owen of the SDP defectors who held theirs). They'd probably get peerages out of being Lib Dems.

[Evariste Euler Gauss]

"The Brexit Thread" = thread for occasional mention of Brexit, its likely consequences and the options for mitigating or preventing it, but mainly for left wing Labourites to fire absolutely endless repetitive barbs at Labour centrists. "Did you give your all to resist Brexit, Dad? Er, no son, I was totally focused on an interminable internal Labour Party war that's been boring everyone outside Labour stupid since the days of Bevan and Gaitskell".

[Diable Rouge]

Ha ha.

Has anybody mentioned them joining the Lib Dems? Why don't they just do that? They'll lose their seats anyway (I can't think of any apart from David Owen of the SDP defectors who held theirs). They'd probably get peerages out of being Lib Dems.

Presumably waiting for Cable to quit - though I believe he vowed to do so regardless once the locals are over in May.

[hobbes]

"The Brexit Thread" = thread for occasional mention of Brexit, its likely consequences and the options for mitigating or preventing it, but mainly for left wing Labourites to fire absolutely endless repetitive barbs at Labour centrists. "Did you give your all to resist Brexit, Dad? Er, no son, I was totally focused on an interminable internal Labour Party war that's been boring everyone outside Labour stupid since the days of Bevan and Gaitskell".

Amazingly, that's the polar opposite of what has actually gone on on this thread. It's been a never ending procession of centrists moaning about the Labour leadership despite them having next to no say in matters.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Presumably waiting for Cable to quit - though I believe he vowed to do so regardless once the locals are over in May.

Ah, that rings a bell. It would be up to recent Lib Dem standards if May called an election an Cable had to fight that. I can't see any logic in him still being leader.You don't need to be an old hand to lead a party with 12 MPs. Put somebody else in (Layla Moran? Jo Swinson, though she's perhaps too associated with the Coalition?) As long as they know Brexit and electoral reform, and have a bit of 2010 Clegg-style personal touch.