The Brexit Thread

[Tubby Isaacs]

Is Mathew Goodwin involved? He's some machine.

He isn't.

They've swerved Minford too.

[Satchmo Distel]

May can only sell the deal by lying. MPs are not gullible enough to swallow the lie. The EU is not budging on the backstop. I think the only realistic outcomes for a positive House of Commons vote are either no deal or a deal that includes no lying about the backstop (and thus unacceptable to the DUP)

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

In the latest parliamentary shenanigans / can-kicking news, Leadsom confirms that the House will not sit next Friday, meaning that the 'within three days' to bring back a Plan B now means a week on Monday, as it is sitting days not actual days. I wouldn't put it past them to declare that the House won't sit on Wednesday and Thursday either, to buy a bit more time.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

i marched for a second referendum,

this isn't `bout the Westminster Bubble, this is about the english bubble. the Labour Party has been demanding- as the piece says- that May's deal should offer the exact same benefits as in the customs union. May's technique supported by a pliant media is to lock out all other voices, whilst the loudest voices int the Second referendum campaign have been demanding the llabour leadership stop brexit depite not having a majority in the house of commons.,

Maybe we're in the position of the irish until a few years ago, who appeared from the outside to do what the Catholic church told them to. people only lost faith in them when the scale of their betrayal was understood,

Yes, but can't you see just how crazy that is. Labour have been demanding that the Withdrawal deal have the exact same benefits as the Customs Union, even though it was decided on the first day of the discussions that there wasn't going to be a customs union in the withdrawal deal. Labour aren't opposing the Withdrawal Deal because it's a shitty Deal, they're not opposing it because the reality of brexit is not what most people voted for, which are two positions that they could move on from, they're left with this nonsensical position, that doesn't impress anyone and just alienates their own base and doesn't set them up for the next step. There's no logical place to move to next.

The Second referendum campaign aren't saying that Labour should Stop brexit, They simply don't have the votes to do it by themselves, but they definitely have to play their part in order to get to the point where a Second Referendum becomes the default way to get out of the mess. The Problem as it stands is that there's maybe 100 Mp's tops openly in favour of a second referendum, so it's not clear that it's a default position. If there were over 200 mp's behind it, then tories who wanted to avoid no deal and knew that May's deal is doomed, could put their support behind it and push it over the top.
;
The problem is that corbyn obviously doesn't want a second referendum. They knobbled that conference motion and turned it into an open ended blank cheque to the leadership. I'm not basing this on "Corbyn is like this" sort of chat. More by observation of Labour's position. If the leadership of the labour party were remotely in favour of a second referendum to stop brexit, they would have done something about it by now.

[Satchmo Distel]

May can only sell the deal by lying. MPs are not gullible enough to swallow the lie. The EU is not budging on the backstop. I think the only realistic outcomes for a positive House of Commons vote are either no deal or a deal that includes no lying about the backstop (and thus unacceptable to the DUP)

They have had two years to make a Plan B.

[Moonlight Shadow]

On a much more personal level, this whole debacle has made look back on two decisions I took and starting to feel regrets, which is not something I'm prone to. The first one was to go out for a drink on a thursday night in April 94 and the second to stay put in May 2012 rather than take advantage of a change in my life and go explore new horizons. There is frankly very little to look forward to at the moment...

<insert bats flying out of a cave here>

[Satchmo Distel]

It makes me wonder how many people are staying in the UK because they have no choice.

[hobbes]

Count me in that. Too old and with too many family ties to jump off this sinking ship.

[Toby Gymshorts]

Yep, that's about the size of it.

[Tubby Isaacs]

May been calling trade union leaders.

[Diable Rouge]

On a much more personal level, this whole debacle has made look back on two decisions I took and starting to feel regrets, which is not something I'm prone to. The first one was to go out for a drink on a thursday night in April 94 and the second to stay put in May 2012 rather than take advantage of a change in my life and go explore new horizons. There is frankly very little to look forward to at the moment...

<insert bats flying out of a cave here>

Surely Switzerland seems an ideal place to ride out the aftermath?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Switzerland got out of its referendum difficulty very skilfully. It's way ahead of us.

[Etienne]

"We are taking the unprecedented step of writing to all Conservative party chairmen to advise and to warn you that this withdrawal agreement, if not defeated, will threaten the national security of the country in fundamental ways. Please ensure that your MP does not vote for this bad agreement.

The first duty of the state, above trade, is the security of its citizens. The withdrawal agreement abrogates this fundamental contract and would place control of aspects of our national security in foreign hands.

Please ensure that your MP votes against this bad agreement and supports a sovereign Brexit on WTO rules, without payment of ransom, for which we now know from an heroic anonymous civil servant, the civil service is, of course, fully prepared." so write former heads of MI6 and the armed forces. Glad our nations security was in the hands of such stellar intellects.

[Lang Spoon]

God damn are any of these fuckers planning private armies yet like their forebears were against Comrade Wilson?

[Toby Gymshorts]

without payment of ransom, for which we now know from an heroic anonymous civil servant, the civil service is, of course, fully prepared

Away and get fucked, you utter pricks.

[Tubby Isaacs]

In Wetherspoons. The house magazine has a shockingly awful cover in which a load of people are shouting something about getting any deal. Among them are Gina Miller and Nick Clegg, who I am pretty sure aren't in favour of that.

[Ginger Yellow]

Now it's personal.

There have been reports today that the Department for Transport has written to Southeastern warning of cuts to passenger services if freight trains are needed to transport goods after Brexit.

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

Now it's personal.

That's only the start, once the frosty mornings have passed they'll be commandeering people's gardens to plant turnips.

Meanwhile I've had my first direct impact of the crisis - we're going to that Europe on the first weekend in April and my daughter's passport expires in June this year. Official adviced issued this week is that UK passport holders should plan for No Deal and assume six months' validity is required for travel after 29 March, so I've had to renew her passport early - but had to wait a few days to get within three weeks of her 16th birthday so that she gets an adult passport rather than another child one.

[Del Usory]

In Wetherspoons. The house magazine has a shockingly awful cover in which a load of people are shouting something about getting any deal. Among them are Gina Miller and Nick Clegg, who I am pretty sure aren't in favour of that.

Apparently he was in Sheffield earlier this week, in what has to be the outstandingly worst establishment in his estate

The Banker's Draft

[Satchmo Distel]

That's only the start, once the frosty mornings have passed they'll be commandeering people's gardens to plant turnips.

Meanwhile I've had my first direct impact of the crisis - we're going to that Europe on the first weekend in April and my daughter's passport expires in June this year. Official adviced issued this week is that UK passport holders should plan for No Deal and assume six months' validity is required for travel after 29 March, so I've had to renew her passport early - but had to wait a few days to get within three weeks of her 16th birthday so that she gets an adult passport rather than another child one.

This is also an effect of May's kicking the can down the road. Having to plan for things that might never happen because the government is engaging in brinksmanship.

[wittoner]

Apparently he was in Sheffield earlier this week, in what has to be the outstandingly worst establishment in his estate

The Banker's Draft

And as Blackadder once said, That's up against some pretty stiff competition.

[Moonlight Shadow]

I have had to tell my wife to tell her dad that his much awaited trip to Spain in June, where is staying for a month, might become a problem in case of no deal as there is no information as to what happens with EHIC and no travel insurance will cover him (a number of chronic conditions and, now, cancer...) which won't exactly boost his morale...

[Ginger Yellow]

Well, there is information, it's just uncertain which outcome we're going to get.

[Moonlight Shadow]

Correct GY, I just checked the BMA infopack about this, immediate end of reciprocal agreements...I do hope those Leave means Leave types living abroad have their private healthcare cover sorted...

[Ginger Yellow]

There is legislation going through parliament that would allow reciprocal arrangements to be continued on a bilateral basis, but I don't think any have actually been agreed.