The Brexit Thread

[Lang Spoon]

I fear this horrible majoritarian fuck all constitutional restraint nightmare of a State will last forever (by which, I mean my possible/probable lifespan- so 20-40 years). A Hardish and hardening Brexit, but slow decaying 80s style decline rather than Total Catastrophe Brexit, so Scotland too poor to leave, dying slowly by staying. Just like when I was a kid. And Wales, can’t see a way out for Wales, even with the softest of Brexits.

[Tubby Isaacs]

It's hilariously lacking in self awareness.

Finally, as we tried to argue that the U.K. faced a unique set of circumstances, which required a fundamental redraft of the relevant European rules, we struggled to provide evidence to support our case.

We tried using absolute numbers: three million migrants likely to come over the next 10 years, 6 percent of Lithuania’s population living in the U.K. already. We highlighted the pressure on public services like schools and hospitals. And we appealed to European leaders to consider the impact of migratory flows on their own economies.

These arguments were quickly shot down. Our European counterparts pointed out that the number of immigrants moving to the U.K. was relatively limited, compared to, for example, Germany. Or they called attention to the fact that European migrants paid more tax and used fewer public services than British citizens, which was true.

They noted that our economy was growing, that we were almost at full employment, and thus that migration was more or less inevitable. They showed us how our rate of financial distribution to the areas under pressure was much lower than, say, Germany’s, and concluded that we should just spend a lot more money addressing the challenges there.

We were never able to counter these arguments. To be honest, we failed to find any evidence of communities under pressure that would satisfy the European Commission. At one point we even asked the help of Andrew Green at MigrationWatch, an organization that has been critical of migration. But all he could provide was an article in the Daily Telegraph about a hospital maternity ward in Corby. There was no hard evidence.

That is not to say we didn’t perceive immigration as a problem. Cameron was convinced it was a real challenge — if perhaps more of a cultural one than an economic one. And he worked tirelessly to bring immigration down to acceptable levels. But it was clear that immigration is at best just one of several factors that are putting pressure on public services, along with globalization, deindustrialization, automation and aging populations.

So the UK went to the EU and asked for major changes to the free movement of people, one of the crucial cornerstones of the Single Market, (Which was the UK's fucking Idea in the first place) even though 1) the UK's net migration rate of 0.5% of the population is resolutely midtable by European standards b) migrants are net contributors to the exchequer and are crucial to the provision and funding for public services c) Don't even seem to be using public services to any measurable degree d) you can't show even one specific example of damage caused to anything. e) in fact it would seem that the UK had precisely the level of migration needed to keep it's economy functioning as well as possible given the mess that the UK was making of everything.

Has it occurred to this man that this is why Cameron went home empty handed? The EU wasn't going to undo free movement to make some insane economically illiterate British xenophobes happy, particularly when they can never be made happy. Particularly when half of the UK's migration is from outside the EU and entirely within the gift of the UK. At what point did cameron notice that everyone else was holding their heads in their hands? If the UK wanted to get something out of the EU, they needed to have France and Germany on board and in favour beforehand, along with at least half the countries of the EU signed up. You need to be able to show specific damage from the way that the regulations currently are set up. Oh and keep your aim small and specific, otherwise it's going to be impossible to fucking get agreement from everyone to make this change, oh and here's the crucial bit, Don't have a position that can be boiled down to "No offense, but We're really not keen on Eastern Europeans, and we're prepared to damage our economy to keep them out." It's not a vote winner

The UK completely failed on all of those fronts. Everyone around that table knows what the Daily Mail is. Everyone around that table knows why Cameron was there. According to the Tony Connelly's book the Irish govt advised against this from the beginning, told them it wouldn't work, and warned them not to make a big deal out of it beforehand, because it might not go well, and that would just make the situation much worse. When Cameron said he was going to do this, the Irish govt stepped up preparations for Brexit in a meaningful way.

Jesus Christ. these people know nothing. There's another bit that I found particularly amusing.

Then there was the clash of political cultures. British politics is famously adversarial, and those who make it to the top are results-focused leaders. They start and end meetings promptly and go into a conversation with clear set of points. Once these have been made, they seek to end the conversation. Cameron is no exception; rather, he is the exemplar. He can be charming. But his style is functional, whether in telephone calls or in person.

Continental politics, on the other hand, tend to be more consensual. European leaders spend a lot of time discussing issues, talking around a subject. They even vacation together. Those differences served to maintain a gulf between what we needed and what they were willing to give — a gulf we did not bridge.

this boils down to "Our Primitive, undemocratic and brutal electoral system that allows you to rule like a king on 37% of the vote, gives us primitive unsophisticated politicians, ill suited to dealing with other people who also hold power, no practice at negotiations, and no concept that other people have their own interests."

Funnily enough, one of the things Cameron did do well was the negotiation he had to do with the Lib Dems. Played them off against his own Kippers very skilfully, and gobbled them up in the 2015 election. The problem was it worked rather too well, and foisted a majority and the referendum on us all.

The Irish Government were right about his uselessness with the big negotiations. It would have been better if he hadn't promised any renegotiation, just a referendum on the EU as it was.

[SouthdownRebel]

The only measure that matters of a successful Brexit, local passports for local people. My first reaction was “I live in a nation of elderly children” but then I realised that children would have gotten over it and moved on years ago. I can’t think of anything more pathetic than this.

[Toby Gymshorts]

I heard that on the radio this morning whilst I was in the shower and I actually shouted "you fucking WANKER" at whichever nobhead they had on spouting about Briddish identity and the classic blue and gold.

The EU will be well rid of us, frankly.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Funnily enough, one of the things Cameron did do well was the negotiation he had to do with the Lib Dems. Played them off against his own Kippers very skilfully, and gobbled them up in the 2015 election. The problem was it worked rather too well, and foisted a majority and the referendum on us all.

The Irish Government were right about his uselessness with the big negotiations. It would have been better if he hadn't promised any renegotiation, just a referendum on the EU as it was.

Cameron's relationship with clegg was basically Prefect/Fag. That wasn't a negotiation, he was dealing with a toothless witless sheep. and clegg was only to happy to get up fifteen minutes early to warm Flashman's toilet seat.

everyone else in that room was a prime minister, who had scrambled to the top of the pile over the political corpses of his enemies. David Cameron's idea of a tough political rival was David Fucking Davis. They must have thought they were dealing with a child.

[Snake Plissken]

Like so many things, it was a UK choice to have burgundy passports. We could have kept blue if we wanted.

[SouthdownRebel]

Never mind that, Snake. British tourists will soon be able to vigorously wave their British passports aloft as they travel abroad, patriotically taking up the mantle of those glorious Agincourt archers and their v-signs*. That'll put those pesky Europeans in their places.

* Another myth of course but what the hell

[Nefertiti2]

The BBC are going full State Broadcaster on the passports. Interviewing Farage (who described it as "the first real tangible victory of brexit" and repeatedly using government description of our "iconic" passports. they haven't once pointed out that the new passport offers fewer rights to its citizens than the old one.

[ursus arctos]

Will cost half a billion quid, apparently

It’s an amazing feat of propaganda that a few people actually do seem to care.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Cameron's relationship with clegg was basically Prefect/Fag. That wasn't a negotiation, he was dealing with a toothless witless sheep. and clegg was only to happy to get up fifteen minutes early to warm Flashman's toilet seat.

everyone else in that room was a prime minister, who had scrambled to the top of the pile over the political corpses of his enemies. David Cameron's idea of a tough political rival was David Fucking Davis. They must have thought they were dealing with a child.

I think that's harsh on Clegg really. He was the minor partner in a Coalition government.

I don't get why you're so much kinder to Irish Labour being in exactly the same situation with Fine Gael.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Will cost half a billion quid, apparently

It’s an amazing feat of propaganda that a few people actually do seem to care.

Including the leader of the Oppositon, and Shadow Brexit Secretary by the look of it. No dots joined between these passports and cancelled operations.

This doesn't of course excuse the BBC.

[johnr]

Including the leader of the Oppositon, and Shadow Brexit Secretary by the look of it. No dots joined between these passports and cancelled operations.

This doesn't of course excuse the BBC.

'No dots'. I think that the contract is due to be renewed anyway? The whole point is that we can have any colour we like. If we went for burgundy again, it'll still cost about the same.

There are no dots to be joined. Anyway, half a billion is like those 'Labour will build 100,000 houses a year' promises; it's all made- and rounded-up to the point that it doesn't mean anything.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I'm not entirely clear what the £500m is for specifically, to be fair.

[johnr]

Then why should Corbyn and Starmer be linking it to the NHS?

[ursus arctos]

The 500 million (actually 490 million) is the budgeted cost of the contact for the 2019 Re-design, which, as johnr notes, is something done every five years.

The contract was agreed in April

[ad hoc]

So the announcement of this news is our Christmas present? Oh how nice of them

Loved this tweet:
From @mrjohnofarrell
“What does this new passport do?”
“It’s blue.”
“Can I use it to travel freely and work in 26 neighbouring countries?”
“No - but look, it’s blue.”

[Tubby Isaacs]

The 500 million (actually 490 million) is the budgeted cost of the contact for the 2019 Re-design, which, as johnr notes, is something done every five years.

The contract was agreed in April

I thought you were implying this was a chunk of money being spent unnecessarily.

[ursus arctos]

Do your passports expire every five years?

[Muukalainen]

10 years for a UK passport.

[Toby Gymshorts]

Just renewed mine recently. They can fuck off if they think I'm paying for a new one.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Do your passports expire every five years?

As Muuka says, 10 years and we have to pay a load when we renew.

[ursus arctos]

In that case, a redesign every five years strikes me as excessive, particularly for a government that still believes in austerity.

The US doesn’t do redesigns that often.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Seems excessive to me too.

[Guy Profumo]

Will cost half a billion quid, apparently

It’s an amazing feat of propaganda that a few people actually do seem to care.

Does that not cover the cost of producing new passports when current ones expire anyway?

[Guy Profumo]

Just renewed mine recently. They can fuck off if they think I'm paying for a new one.

Won't it be valid until expiry without the need for a new one?