The Brexit Thread

[Pérou Flaquettes]

Andrew Marr on the outrageous number of Poles… and French and Spaniards in the UK, here at 34’52: "[...] there’s a lot of people out there who want fewer Polish people here, fewer French, fewer Spanish people arriving here."

For God’s sake, there are only 137,862 French citizens and 77,554 Spaniards in the UK (2011 UK census) but that’s obviously far too many for Marr, a staunch Brexiter I believe. Never mind the fact that about a third of French people in the UK work in the City or the financial sector and contribute substantially to the UK economy via their high wages and taxes. Please somebody hide the latest ONS figures from the likes of Marr, he’ll have a fit if he sees them (150,000 French people and 125,000 Spaniards).

I’ll send Marr a postcard when/if I leave the UK (I don’t particularly want to but my – British – wife now does), just to reassure him.

[E10 Rifle]

I don't think Marr's a Brexiter. He's a straight-down-the-line liberal technocrat really.

[Gerontophile]

Has anyone seen him and Martin Clunes in the same room?

[Diable Rouge]

The UK is the only OECD member with economic growth and wage contraction:

https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comm...veloped_world/

[Tubby Isaacs]

We've managed that one before. I think it was only a brief period around the 2015 Election that wages were going up.

May was very complacent, in retrospect, in calling another election when that wasn't the case.

[Nefertiti2]

in the light of the Paradise Papers Worth pointing out again the extraordinary high correlation between tax dodging and Brexit,

Lord Ashcroft (who controlled a trust he said he didn't control) is a big Brexit campaigner who has been funding the Tories substantially. And polls whose relaibility can be called into question these days.

Of course I wonder if their dislike for the EU is linked to the EU's newly expressed desire to close down tax havens.

[Pérou Flaquettes]

I don't think Marr's a Brexiter. He's a straight-down-the-line liberal technocrat really.

Possibly but that in itself isn’t mutually exclusive, you can be a "straight-down-the-line liberal technocrat" and still be pro-Brexit. The Brexit vote transcends economic boundaries, identity politics, party lines, the lot and even "liberals" can be pro-Brexit. We’ve seen that all sorts of people happily voted Brexit even if the reasons that guided their decision were often conflicting.

Many voters – Leavers or Remainers, but particularly Leavers as their vote was arguably more emotive – made their choice following a vaguely hierarchical approach, often a haphazard one, likely to contain many discordant elements, some of which are even incompatible between them. For instance, without embarking on long disquisitions about Marr’s political leanings and his possible motivations re the Brexit vote, for argument’s sake we may want to surmise that Marr may have felt both a) very pro British – i.e in this context believing in British exceptionalism – and b) liberal, but chose to prioritise a) when push came to shove.

I see Marr as an ex leftie-cum-centrist, someone who’s turned "liberal" by his own admission (see wiki link below), and who comes across as pretty anti-EU.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Marr: He [Marr] was once a Maoist and member of the Socialist Campaign for a Labour Victory, an offshoot of the International-Communist League, now known as the Alliance for Workers' Liberty. At Cambridge, Marr says he was a "raving leftie" who handed out copies of Mao's Little Red Book and he acquired the nickname Red Andy.

But does he even know what he really is? Further down his wiki page:

In the Daily Telegraph, he claimed to be a libertarian when discussing his conflicting views on smoking bans. However, writing in The Guardian, he defined himself as a "pampered white liberal"


However he chooses to define himself politically or economically, I have yet to hear/read him say something remotely positive about the EU, or on the huge contribution of EU citizens in the UK etc. hence my comment about his Brexit views. He enjoys laying into Brussels and generally playing down the challenges ahead for the UK. Maybe he does it purely out of Panglossianism or patriotism, who knows but whatever his motives, he’s always seemed pretty pro-Leave to me (see links below).

https://www.newstatesman.com/politic...s-guide-brexit

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/849...Barnier-Brexit

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jE5gsdEeCLI

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/852...-Brexit-revolt

Anyhow, whether he is a Brexiter or not is academic here, my point was that his comment (my previous post) was utterly ridiculous.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Britain Elects @britainelects 47m47 minutes ago
More
Theresa May has done a [X] at handling Britain's exit from the EU:

Good job: 32% (-17)
Bad job: 55% (+15)

via @IpsosMORI
Chgs. w/ Mar 2017

I assume she'd have been on something like those March 49/40 figures for good/bad when she caled the election. In retrospect (again) that doesn't look like a particularly big cushion to call a virtually single issue election.

I suppose the personal ratings before the election were probably more healthy for her.

[Pérou Flaquettes]

The UK is the only OECD member with economic growth and wage contraction:

https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comm...veloped_world/

Could it be perchance that UK growth/economy is increasingly built on sand, on little more than pixie dust?

UK’s unsecured debt mountain reaches £300bn or £11,000 per household exceeding pre-crisis peak by 30%

Debt milestone projected to exceed £340bn, or £12,500 per household, before end of the decade

For instance, I recently read that 86% of private (non fleet) new cars in the UK last year were bought on finance/using dealership car finance plans (mainly via the controversial PCP, personal contract plan) – that is very, very high.

[Nefertiti2]

Anyhow, whether he is a Brexiter or not is academic here, my point was that his comment (my previous post) was utterly ridiculous.

I don't think Marr is a Brexiteer. But the BBC politics department under Robbie Gibb who edited the MArr Show and the Dailt?sunday politcs were as is, Andrew Neil the main presenter. I think he may have just picked up the office mood. The BBC is alos guilty of what Simon Wren Lewis describes here as "acrobatic discourse" journalism"

acrobatic discourse, because it is always looking for balance. It is sometimes called ‘shape of the earth: sides differ’ journalism

And yes kev. Lots of people are fucked. Wages are declining in real terms. Housing, travel Food going up substantially.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Could it be perchance that UK growth/economy is increasingly built on sand, on little more than pixie dust?

UK’s unsecured debt mountain reaches £300bn or £11,000 per household exceeding pre-crisis peak by 30%

Debt milestone projected to exceed £340bn, or £12,500 per household, before end of the decade

For instance, I recently read that 86% of private (non fleet) new cars in the UK last year were bought on finance/using dealership car finance plans (mainly via the controversial PCP, personal contract plan) – that is very, very high.

Well they sure fixed that "addiction to debt" that Gordon Brown brought about. And wages at least rose in that period.

[ad hoc]

https://twitter.com/jonlis1/status/927551446186450944

[Ginger Yellow]

Could it be perchance that UK growth/economy is increasingly built on sand, on little more than pixie dust?

UK’s unsecured debt mountain reaches £300bn or £11,000 per household exceeding pre-crisis peak by 30%

Debt milestone projected to exceed £340bn, or £12,500 per household, before end of the decade

For instance, I recently read that 86% of private (non fleet) new cars in the UK last year were bought on finance/using dealership car finance plans (mainly via the controversial PCP, personal contract plan) – that is very, very high.

Car finance is not generally unsecured. PCP loans, specifically, are not. Not sure what PWC are playing at there. There are definitely concerns around PCP, but it's precisely because the security that exists may not be worth enough.

[Pérou Flaquettes]

I don't think Marr is a Brexiteer. But the BBC politics department under Robbie Gibb who edited the MArr Show and the Dailt?sunday politcs were as is, Andrew Neil the main presenter. I think he may have just picked up the office mood. The BBC is alos guilty of what Simon Wren Lewis describes here as "acrobatic discourse" journalism"

Thanks for the info, interesting. Why aren't I surprised...

The BBC is also guilty of "going with the flow" a little too readily IMO, i.e they tend to pander to the powers that be (whoever happens to be in office). That said, I wouldn't like to be in their shoes re most thorny issues, being seen as neutral/objective is no mean feat these days.

And yes kev. Lots of people are fucked. Wages are declining in real terms. Housing, travel Food going up substantially.

That was precisely my point (eg my link on the level of unsecured debt in the UK) so yes, I’m well aware of it, for a number of reasons. Not least because I’ve done years of volunteer work in deprived parts of the North-East – and Sheffield & South Yorks before that – and still do, have helped at food banks (with plenty of "working poor" people using them) etc.

Car finance is not generally unsecured. PCP loans, specifically, are not. Not sure what PWC are playing at there. There are definitely concerns around PCP, but it's precisely because the security that exists may not be worth enough.

I wasn’t actually linking or equating the two (unsecured loans and PCPs) but I can see by looking at my post how the confusion can arise.

Yes, there’s concern over PCP’s, it’s summarised here: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/c...car-loans.html

This recent Dispatches on the subject is also interesting but we’re really going off thread here so I’ll stop here with the links on car loans!

[Ginger Yellow]

It was the linked PWC report making the equation, not you, and they do so explicitly, without any justification. There's a very small amount of actually unsecured car finance, but it's clearly not what they're talking about.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I think part of it is that Brexit sits pretty well with a certain sort of self-appointed "straight-talking" "iconoclast" who's "in touch with ordinary people". I don't watch Marr, but I gather he interrupts a lot at the best of times. So a Remainer trying to develop a proper argument would likely get it in the neck from him.

[Pérou Flaquettes]

Especially as times seem to be inexorably shifting towards "universal acceptance" of Brexit, in an "all resistance is futile" kind of mood. Next thing we know they’ll try to browbeat us into embracing the fucking thing.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Hold on to your sides because they might just split. I give you Martin Vickers, "Eurosceptic" Tory MP for Cleethorpes.

Here he is two weeks ago, worried about Theresa May not having strong enough "red lines".

http://www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/ne...seafood-736984

And here he is today, meeting food processors who are worrying about the shit hitting the fan and casting around for improbable solutions like "freeports".

http://www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/ne...seafood-736984

Is he worried? Does he think those "red lines" might need a bit of flexibility after all? Nah.

Mr Vickers said the possibility of free trade status for northern Lincolnshire’s ports was a sign of post-Brexit optimism.

“We couldn’t do that if we wanted to at the moment,” said the Eurosceptic Tory.

“But once we get control of our own economy again, that is one of the things that could be looked at and which could be very beneficial.

“That emphasises the freedoms and opportunities that could be opening up after Brexit.”

Or indeed the clusterfuck that looks more likely right now.

[Nefertiti2]

Steve Baker, Crazed Brexit ideologue deep inthe DUP funding scandal and now a junior minister has just said Labour asking for Brexit impact papers means public will now ask 'whose side are they on?'

[Snake Plissken]

So when it was about taking back sovereignty, they mean Parliament don’t get to see things.

[Tubby Isaacs]

This lot honestly don't get the difference between Parliament and the Government.

[E10 Rifle]

Oh they do, they know that pretending they don't is part of the strategy of making the latter more powerful at the expense of the former.

[Pérou Flaquettes]

Good piece in the NY Times: No One Knows What Britain Is Anymore

The ambitious Mr. Johnson was crucial to the victory of Brexit in the June 2016 referendum. But for many, the blusterings of Boris have lost their charm. The “great ship” he loves to cite is a nationalist fantasy, a remnant of Britain’s persistent post-imperial confusion about its proper place in the world, hanging on to expensive symbols like a nuclear deterrent while its once glorious navy is often incapable of patrolling its own coastline*.

Britain — renowned for its pragmatism, its common sense, its political stability and its unabashed devotion to small business (“a nation of shopkeepers”) — has become nearly unrecognizable to its European allies.

[*With a link to this Independent article informing us that, to patrol its 7,723 mile-long coastline, the UK has a grand total of… 3 vessels, with a Border Force ridiculously understaffed and under-resourced at airports, ports, in immigration services etc. and woefully inadequate to deal with illegal immigration/immigrants – predominantly people/students who overstay their visas – who number over 1 million people according to recent internal Home Office documentation. A lot of this is a consequence of the dramatic cuts, poor outsourcings, mismanagement of resources etc. that we've seen over the last three decades, a reality highlighted in the excellent book "Dismembered: How the Attack on the State Harms Us All" that I presented in this post.]

[Ginger Yellow]

predominantly people/students who overstay their visas – who number over 1 million people according to recent internal Home Office documentation

Or, maybe, 4,600 people.

[E10 Rifle]

I know it's for an overseas audience but cliched nonsense like this irks me greatly:

Britain — renowned for its pragmatism, its common sense, its political stability and its unabashed devotion to small business (“a nation of shopkeepers”)

It feeds into this dishonest narrative that Britain used to be the Honest Gentlemen Of The World that has only recently suddenly Gone A Bit Mad. Whereas we've been on this path for a long long time.