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      The Wing Commander has a few words about the end of a bell.

      I wish they would allow comments. There would be carnage.

      Comment


        This is good, from the Touchstone blog the TUC do. Note the fallen pound doing nothing obvious for exports, and government consumption propping up growth.

        Comment


          So, it seems that the Home Office over-estimated the number of students overstaying their visas by a mere TWO THOUSAND PERCENT. It seems that instead of 100,000 students staying behind, only 4,600 did.

          Amber Rudd also announced a study on the economic effects of foreign students in general. You know, a mere seven years after introducing policies to get rid of them.

          Jesus fucking Christ!

          Comment


            Originally posted by Tubby Isaacs View Post
            This is good, from the Touchstone blog the TUC do. Note the fallen pound doing nothing obvious for exports, and government consumption propping up growth.
            What is on the y-axis?

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              Originally posted by Wouter D View Post
              What is on the y-axis?
              It's GDP growth percentage.

              Comment


                Originally posted by Snake Plissken View Post
                So, it seems that the Home Office over-estimated the number of students overstaying their visas by a mere TWO THOUSAND PERCENT. It seems that instead of 100,000 students staying behind, only 4,600 did.

                Amber Rudd also announced a study on the economic effects of foreign students in general. You know, a mere seven years after introducing policies to get rid of them.

                Jesus fucking Christ!
                Rudd isn't stupid, and was the best Tory Remainer in the referendum. She made a fool of herself by embracing May-ism first up, but I get the feeling she's now playing a longish game with these studies. They're not likely to make Hard Brexit look good.

                It's fascinating chess, just a shame it's with people rather than chess pieces.

                Comment


                  The whole mess looks more like Mousetrap than chess so far; interminable, Heath Robinson-esque process to set up, followed by disappointment and regret at time wasted.

                  Comment


                    Doesn't say much for the unimpeachable OBR this affair. Did political pressure or just a cock-up lead to the wild over inflation of these dastardly foreign students staying on illegally?

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by Lang Spoon View Post
                      Doesn't say much for the unimpeachable OBR this affair. Did political pressure or just a cock-up lead to the wild over inflation of these dastardly foreign students staying on illegally?
                      Think it was the ONS, in fairness. They've been around longer, with operational independence, so it is surprising.

                      Comment


                        In my very limited experience of such things over in Mexico, "operational independence" means the square root of fuck all if Ministers or influential backbenchers start demanding a wee massage to the stats or policy direction of organizations that ultimately depend on Govt funding. Seeing as the entire apparatus of the state here is a facsimile of Britland, I'd imagine it's the same over on Racist Island.

                        Comment


                          The ONS have been quite good at calling out Grant Shapps, IDS and others on complete bollocks. So I'd be surprised if they'd knocked out duff numbers out of ministerial interference. But it isn't very good.

                          The OBR maybe there's more of a worry of not being independent enough.

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by Snake Plissken View Post
                            So, it seems that the Home Office over-estimated the number of students overstaying their visas by a mere TWO THOUSAND PERCENT. It seems that instead of 100,000 students staying behind, only 4,600 did.

                            Amber Rudd also announced a study on the economic effects of foreign students in general. You know, a mere seven years after introducing policies to get rid of them.

                            Jesus fucking Christ!
                            May lies again. Or misleads. Nope. Blatant lies when she was Home Secretary and knew the answers.

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by Tubby Isaacs View Post
                              The ONS have been quite good at calling out Grant Shapps, IDS and others on complete bollocks. So I'd be surprised if they'd knocked out duff numbers out of ministerial interference. But it isn't very good.

                              The OBR maybe there's more of a worry of not being independent enough.
                              I'd guess the pressure came from May. As stone evil Home Sec, she had a lot more clout than Two-Face Schapps or the tragic joke that is The Quiet Man. There were Ministers you could piss all over, and Ministers you'd have to let piss on you. Before she became someone even Kuenssberg struggles to defend with a straight face, she had more clout than anyone else outside CamBourne.

                              Comment


                                “That’s a sign that she was successful in closing down bogus colleges,” said one colleague, in a reference to Mrs May’s crackdown on sham universities. “In any event, she believes the public would feel they were being hoodwinked if we changed the definition now.”
                                That's because they were being hoodwinked you arsehole.

                                Also, not sure if this was known to the posters above other than Antepli or if it's new info, but just to be clear:
                                while the discrepancy may have been a revelation to most of Whitehall, the Home Office has been aware of it for some time. One former Downing Street adviser told the Financial Times that they had been briefed on provisional exit check data in late 2015 that showed a similarly small level of overstayers.

                                Comment


                                  Yeah, this should be a big "What did she know? And when?" scandal. If answers come there none, petition Bercow for a recall of Parliament. He probably wouldn't, but he might have a bit of fun wading into the debate.

                                  Spoony, IDS was a seriously important Minister. I think you're being unfair. Also, they slapped down Gove for "sliding down international league tables". I was pleasantly surprised Gove stopped saying it.

                                  Comment


                                    Important yes, but not exactly in the inner circle. Like Gove, I'd imagine Cam would have a quiet chuckle at IDS foolishness, especially if it distracted from his or Gideon's errors and monstrousness. Civil servants would have an inkling this was someone it was safe to belittle in the politest terms. I doubt many would have been brave enough to openly challenge May and the beardo/Weegie cabal around her.

                                    Comment


                                      This seems more coherent from Labour:

                                      Labour makes dramatic shift on Brexit and single market

                                      https://www.theguardian.com/global/2...y_to_clipboard

                                      Though frankly I would still rather they fight positively on immigration than to make what seems to me to be a craven and unprincipled electoral calculation

                                      Comment


                                        I think that the plan is one step at a time. As the cracks appear in the Brexit fantasy, Labour step in with a dose of reality. There is no way this can be rowed back in one big go.

                                        Comment


                                          Much more constructive from Labour, but I wouldn't expect this offer to be accepted by the EU. As I understand it, freedom of movement still ends after 4 years, which would be considered a price worth paying by the sort of populist loons they're worried about.

                                          As Snakey says, one step at a time.
                                          Last edited by Tubby Isaacs; 27-08-2017, 15:12.

                                          Comment


                                            I've been waiting for this shift. It's a bit of a long term masterstroke that's been coming for a while. And it ensures we'll win the next election, probably before Christmas.

                                            Comment


                                              The Grauniad website is leading with a pathetic article about Corbyn facing a "backlash" from northern MPs over his Brexit position. It quotes three MPs, comprising John Mann and two others who are so comfortable with their position they go unnamed. This is the sort of shit you'd expect from the Brexit press.

                                              Comment


                                                The BBC earlier went with Frank fucking Field, a man who has never knowingly been on the right side of an argument.

                                                Comment


                                                  The Labour policy has a fatal flaw: if the EU calls the UK's bluff on freedom of movement and refuses to agree, Labour will cut off its nose to spite it's face by withdrawing from the single market. The policy relies on bluffing with a weak hand, with disastrous consequences if the bluff fails. Why should the EU fold? And it says immigration matters more than the single market, which is a morally bankrupt position.

                                                  Comment


                                                    I don't think it is much more than an indication to all concerned that Labour are more conciliatory towards the EU than Davies putting out embargoed press releases about "stepping up the pressure". No, it isn't realistic but it is a step.

                                                    Also "Not leaving the Single Market but controlling immigration" was promised by a number of Brexiteers, including Hannan.

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