The Brexit Thread

[Nefertiti2]

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1184773747389227008?s=20

Why are the EU participating in this farce?

[Toby Gymshorts]

Because they're fucking sick of us at this point.

[Nefertiti2]

But they've only ever talked to the Conservative Party.

[Satchmo Distel]

The text of the agreement:

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/site...rn_ireland.pdf

It should be stressed, as Barnier has just done, that this is just a draft and has to go through the EU Parliament before the 27 ministers sign off on it

[Nefertiti2]

[URL]https://twitter.com/leftiestats/status/1184773686047449089?s=21[/URL]

[Satchmo Distel]

"Take back control" is obviously a lie when you read what the agreement says about VAT, for example

[NHH]

Hmm. Even if the Lib Dems and SNP were onboard, Labour would still have needed 20 of 41 independents to come with them, of whom 21 were Tories. I mean, it would have been interesting but the plan never had the numbers because the Tories who dislike Brexit really do hate Corbyn more. Those have been the fundamentals of the problem since 2017, that non-Brexit forces would not control the agenda until enough Tories were prepared to collapse the government (as many people on this very thread have pointed out in the last 2 years) so to blame _this_ on Swinson is tribalist buffoonery.

[Nefertiti2]

If Swinson had said she would have backed Corbyn it would have put the pressure on them. Her tribalist buffoonery ensured there was none.

[E10 Rifle]

Am I reading this right, this 'right to vote on the arrangement every four years' given to Stormont doesn't require a majority from "both communities"? That looks to be storing up a whole world of problems if so.

[Nefertiti2]

" Deal latest - Experts say this doesn’t give the guarantees on a softer brexit as Theresa May’s deal. In May’s deal there were legally binding commitments on level playing field. This kicks that can down the road, and could mean a harder or a softer brexit dependent on PM."

So the deal is dependent on entrusting the country to the word of Boris - " "I plan to leave my wife" "Yes of course I've checked my sources" " She was giving me technology Lessons" "iJohnson

[Satchmo Distel]

I think the DUP will continue to reject this because of VAT and because they can't be sure Stormont will be sitting in four years' time, so it's better for them to keep their power base in Westminster.

[Snake Plissken]

Labour + Lib Dems + SNP + PC Green is more than Tory + DUP isn't it?

[tee rex]

For all the gazillions of words spent on political machinations throughout the ages, there really is only a short list of moves in the playbook.

"Declare victory and leave" is a well-trodden path. And "Always say it's new". And everyone knew that was going to be the play, even before Johnson got the job. The rest is bluster and noise.

I guess that old Stephen Fry clip will be getting a good workout ("A good deal for Britain!").

[Satchmo Distel]

Am I reading this right, this 'right to vote on the arrangement every four years' given to Stormont doesn't require a majority from "both communities"? That looks to be storing up a whole world of problems if so.

Correct. I think the Taoiseach will suffer a lot of damage for that concession, as Spoony noted upthread.

[Nefertiti2]

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1184787420677586945?s=20

[Flynnie]

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1184787420677586945?s=20

Fire up the Maugham-o-bot! Let's get Bojo in Choko!

[Ginger Yellow]

Am I reading this right, this 'right to vote on the arrangement every four years' given to Stormont doesn't require a majority from "both communities"? That looks to be storing up a whole world of problems if so.

Technically, no.

For the purposes of paragraph 5, cross-community support means:
(a) a majority of those Members of the Legislative Assembly present and voting, including a majority of the unionist and nationalist designations present and voting; or
(b) a weighted majority (60%) of Members of the Legislative Assembly present and voting, including at least 40% of each of the nationalist and unionist designations present and voting.

Meanwhile, can sombebody help me out with the political declaration? There are changes to the level playing field language, but I can't figure out what practical difference they're intended to (or able to) make.


Original:

The future relationship must ensure open and fair competition. Provisions to ensure this should cover state aid, competition, social and employment standards, environmental standards, climate change, and relevant tax matters, building on the level playing field arrangements provided for in the Withdrawal Agreement and commensurate with the overall economic relationship. The Parties should consider the precise nature of commitments in relevant areas, having regard to the scope and depth of the future relationship. These commitments should combine appropriate and relevant Union and international standards, adequate mechanisms to ensure effective implementation domestically, enforcement and dispute settlement as part of the future relationship.

New:

Given the Union and the United Kingdom's geographic proximity and economic interdependence, the future relationship must ensure open and fair competition, encompassing robust commitments to ensure a level playing field. The precise nature of commitments should be commensurate with the scope and depth of the future relationship and the economic connectedness of the Parties. These commitments should prevent distortions of trade and unfair competitive advantages. To that end, the Parties should uphold the common high standards applicable in the Union and the United Kingdom at the end of the transition period in the areas of state aid, competition, social and employment standards, environment, climate change, and relevant tax matters. The Parties should in particular maintain a robust and comprehensive framework for competition and state aid control that prevents undue distortion of trade and competition; commit to the principles of good governance in the area of taxation and to the curbing of harmful tax practices; and maintain environmental, social and employment standards at the current high levels provided by the existing common standards. In so doing, they should rely on appropriate and relevant Union and international standards, and include appropriate mechanisms to ensure effective implementation domestically, enforcement and dispute settlement. The future relationship should also promote adherence to and effective implementation of relevant internationally agreed principles and rules in these domains, including the Paris Agreement.

Edit: Maybe it's, as per Nef's experts, that the new wording accommodates the fact that the level playing field language isn't in the WA any more, so the PD has been fleshed out with similar, but not legally operative language.

[Satchmo Distel]

Am told by govt source that Johnson will tell EU leaders that it’s this deal or no deal - but no delays

Not surprising given that October 31st is what he wants to be the selling point to the electorate rather than whether it's viable. I think they will cobble together some wording whereby the UK is deemed to be out on Oct 31st but only symbolically, with the real legal separations happening after. It won't fool Farage's mob but might fool enough voters who only pay attention to the headline.

[ursus arctos]

GY, the changes in the PD are intended to give the Brexiteers more comfort as to the dismantling of the regulatory state, but may have no real impact in practice, as the E.U. are unlikely to agree a free trade agreement without being assured of a "level playing field".

[Etienne]

I can't see how this passes.

[Satchmo Distel]

For the purposes of paragraph 5, cross-community support means:
(a) a majority of those Members of the Legislative Assembly present and voting, including a majority of the unionist and nationalist designations present and voting; or
(b) a weighted majority (60%) of Members of the Legislative Assembly present and voting, including at least 40% of each of the nationalist and unionist designations present and voting.

I think this only applies to giving an 8 year extension after a given period not a four year one.

[Nefertiti2]

I can't see how this passes.

It's not there in order to pass, It's there in order to portray the opposition as wreckers.

[Etienne]

Well, yeah, I get that's part of it. But it's a proper agreement, it's not just a symbolic change for the May deal (even if basically every change makes it worse). I can't see why you'd go to that trouble (royally fucking off the DUP in the process) if you weren't hoping on passing it some point, even if you need a GE first.

[Ginger Yellow]

I think this only applies to giving an 8 year extension after a given period not a four year one.

Ah, fair point, I was going through it quickly. Seems to be (largely) up to the UK how the threshold is decided.

For the purposes of paragraph 1, the United Kingdom shall seek democratic consent in Northern Ireland in a manner consistent with the 1998 Agreement. A decision expressing democratic consent shall be reached strictly in accordance with the unilateral declaration made by the United Kingdom on [DATE], including with respect to the roles of the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly.

I'd have thought "in a manner consistent with the 1998 Agreement" would involve some sort of "cross-community support" measure but it's not the one I quoted. Don't know if this declaration has been drafted or not.

[Nefertiti2]

You’ve got the entire media on your side, a majority of minus 20 with the DUP onside -you have to have a general election anyway.