The Brexit Thread

[Flynnie]

Latest reports suggest Boris has finally had enough and has tossed Northern Ireland over the wall. Border checks in the Irish Sea (so at airports too), and a united Ireland as a customs union. We could have had that twenty four months ago but the DUP and Boris iirc said no way. What's changed?

Also how the fuck is he going to get that over the line in Parliament without the DUP's votes?

If they say "Well, we'll actually vote for it" then that should be a red herring that Boris has no intention of actually implementing this deal.

[Ginger Yellow]

We could have had that twenty four months ago but the DUP and Boris iirc said no way. What's changed?

The DUP no longer have the balance of power?

[San Bernardhinault]

What's changed?

We’re now much closer to the financial disclosure deadline

[Satchmo Distel]

Boris is conceding more than May did but expects to get that past his backbenchers? Seems unlikely. May herself would presumably vote against it given she rejected the same terms as PM.

It would be seen by the Tory right as a bottle job; Boris had no deal in his grasp and shat his pants. Would also lose massive votes to Farage in a GE I'd have thought.

[Satchmo Distel]

Conspiracy theory: Johnson gets a deal he knows Parliament will reject. He then says there is no point asking for an extension because Parliament will never accept any deal so we may as well just drop out.

[Ginger Yellow]

Yeah, I mean, my baseline assumption is that to the extent there is a deal agreed (still a v big if), it's one he knows won't pass. But it wouldn't have passed the smell test before because of the DUP. Whereas now he can plausibly agree to it and pretend to have shown a willingness to compromise, as the DUP aren't kingmakers.

There's also a remote possibility that this picks up enough Labour rebels and backbenchers that it doesn't need either the DUP or the ERG. Though that is considerably less likely than I thought it was say 9 months ago.

[E10 Rifle]

Given that there's absolutely and effectively fuck all by way of labour and environmental standards alignment in Johnson's deal, no Labour MP should go near it.

[Ginger Yellow]

Should, no. Will, maybe.

[Nefertiti2]

Kinnock and Flint are both thick and untrustworthy.

[Flynnie]

Kinnock and Flint are both thick and untrustworthy.

They have to know that is all but automatic deselection if they try. it wouldn’t even beat their low standards as E10 notes.

[Guy Profumo]

They have to know that is all but automatic deselection if they try. it wouldn’t even beat their low standards as E10 notes.

What's wrong with €10 notes?

[Nocturnal Submission]

The tense Brussels negotiations seem to have reduced OTF to a state of near total paralysis. Hardly anyone's posting!

Anyway, interesting analysis of where the polls are currently: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50043549

[Snake Plissken]

Swinson said this morning that they'll vote for Johnson's deal (whatever it is) as long as there is a second referendum attached.

She's an absolute idiot.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Erm, isn't that exactly what a party that wants a second referendum should do?

[Satchmo Distel]

The tense Brussels negotiations seem to have reduced OTF to a state of near total paralysis. Hardly anyone's posting!

Anyway, interesting analysis of where the polls are currently: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50043549

Takeaway: No Deal would only honour the wishes of 69% of the people who voted leave, but Johnson would pretend it's 100% if he forced a No Deal.

[Snake Plissken]

Erm, isn't that exactly what a party that wants a second referendum should do?

What does the deal actually include?

Perhaps the LDs would like to find that out before putting it to a referendum.

And that's before we consider that this is a worse deal than Mays, which they voted against three times.

[E10 Rifle]

Swinson doesn't want a second referendum. She wants to revoke.

She said the other week, anyway. It's hard to keep up

[Ginger Yellow]

Only if she wins the election. For reasons.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

What does the deal actually include?

Perhaps the LDs would like to find that out before putting it to a referendum.

And that's before we consider that this is a worse deal than Mays, which they voted against three times.

Does it matter at this point. There's no such thing as a brexit deal that isn't a massive rancid stinking bag of fermented shit. You've got to have a bag of shit to put up against Remain, it may as well be this one. This is the last fucking minute. Do it now and stop fucking around.

[Snake Plissken]

And then lose the referendum and be stuck with it.

Well done, you.

[Snake Plissken]

One of the reasons it has to be a Labour deal against Remain is that the Tories won't campaign for it, the Tory press won't campaign for it and the Brexit Party won't campaign for it. They'll probably just boycott the whole thing and leave Remain to win comfortably.

Put a Tory deal up against Remain and the cheating, lying machine gets to swing into action again. And what the fuck are the Lib Dems going to do, campaign against a deal that they supported when in Parliament?

[Flynnie]

The tense Brussels negotiations seem to have reduced OTF to a state of near total paralysis. Hardly anyone's posting!

Anyway, interesting analysis of where the polls are currently: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50043549

I wish they would do some kind of ranked choice voting on this kind of thing. Of course there's no fuckin' majority - you gave people five choices and the average punter still isn't enormously clear on the differences.

Like, if people were bargaining in good faith (cough Liberals cough), there might be majority support for the single market and customs union. You'd respect the referendum, taking that Dolchstosslegende away from Farage, but retain all the cookies of EU membership most Remainers really care about. Sure, no more voice in Parliament, but most people don't even vote for that stuff.

[Satchmo Distel]

The LibDem general election line would be hard to sell: "I voted for this deal but I'm now asking you to support a referendum where I will ask you to reject it."

The only sane strategy is to make the Tories own their own shit, whether it's no deal or a bad deal, so you can oppose it in a general election without any double standard. You can point out that Johnson is campaigning in the election for a deal he rejected back in March.

[Flynnie]

The LibDem general election line would be hard to sell: "I voted for this deal but I'm now asking you to support a referendum where I will ask you to reject it."

The only sane strategy is to make the Tories own their own shit, whether it's no deal or a bad deal, so you can oppose it in a general election without any double standard. You can point out that Johnson is campaigning in the election for a deal he rejected back in March.

Also thanks for taking that line of criticism of Corbyn away.

[johnr]

One of the reasons it has to be a Labour deal against Remain is that the Tories won't campaign for it, the Tory press won't campaign for it and the Brexit Party won't campaign for it. They'll probably just boycott the whole thing and leave Remain to win comfortably.

Put a Tory deal up against Remain and the cheating, lying machine gets to swing into action again.

This, absolutely. There is a chance that Johnson's deal would win. That would be a disaster. There is less chance a Labour-negotiated deal would win (partly due to the party's lack of general interest in wanting it to, partly due to the rabid Brexiteers not seeing it as 'hard' enough). That would be good.

Those calling for a Referendum on johnson's deal seem to be doing so in the belief that Remain would win. I'm not so sure that is the case, so it is a dangerous game.