The Brexit Thread

[Tubby Isaacs]

Failed Brexit Minister in No Shit Sherlock shock!

Isabel Oakeshott
@IsabelOakeshott
Every single EU minister I spoke to made it "abundantly clear" they want us worse off Out than In, says former Brexit minister David Jones

[Toby Gymshorts]

No fucking way! That's quite the revelation.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Isabel Oakeshott
@IsabelOakeshott
The government IS preparing for WTO rules after Brexit, confirms former Brexit minister David Jones + calls on govt to reveal those plans

I wonder why they wouldn't reveal them, eh?

On the plus side, Jones has a decent swing against him. Same again and he's gone. A few Plaid votes about.

[Tubby Isaacs]

And there's still no agreed negotiating position. Or maybe there is but they can't tell their conference.

Ian KatzVerified account
@iankatz1000
Chris Grayling dodges question of whether cabinet agreed a position on whether UK will be subject to ECJ during transition period

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Or export unemployed people, like Ireland and Poland.
.
There's so many options.

But how can France also be like Germany? Germany is essentially bleeding France dry by undercutting them, knowing full well that French unions won't put up with cuts. So the Germans simply state that France needs to 'reform' ('reform' apparently means to take in a massive former Warsaw Pact country and use it to devalue your country's wages). But if France somehow convinces their unions to undercut Germany, then surely that means that Germany's competitive advantage evaporates? Just like how every airline can't be Ryanair, not every country can be Germany.

The problem with the Euro is that it doesn't fucking work for all these countries simultaneously. Germany is making a killing off of it because they've figured out how to game the eurozone. So of course Germany is going to say, "we must respect the treaties that were democratically agreed." Except when it comes to ignoring surplus rules, which they are allowed to flout.

erm, Freedom of movement means that people go somewhere with full employment when someone blows up the economy. It's also important not to lose perspective here. The total net emigration between 2009 and 2015 was 150,000. net immigration to ireland in 2007 and 2008 alone was 170,000. and net migration between 1995 and 2015 is about 330,000. We just forgot step number one of having your act together. Don't inflate bubbles.

The other thing is that France isn't really being undercut by Germany. Wages in France aren't as high as you might think, and wages in germany aren't as low as you'd think either. The median wage is €29.000 in France. It's €35,000 in germany. That's a 20% difference. The median wage is a lot closer to the average wage in Germany as well, indicating that it's more equally distributed. Germany isn't a low wage economy that sells stuff around the world based on price. They have a high productivity manufacturing base, that sells fairly expensive, high end stuff. a sixth of what germany exports are cars and car bits. think of how they are marketed. That basically hasn't The german industrial worker is well paid and numerous.

A bizarre nugget I dug up is that trade union membership is weird. On the face of it, you'd assume that virtually everyone in France was in a trade union, lots of germans were in a trade union, with the UK in a distant third. But in reality only 8% of french workers are unionized, 18% of Germans, and 26% of UK workers. I find that really surprising. only one in 20 french private sector workers is in a union. I can kind of see why union-govt discussions are so fraught.

[Disco Child Ballads]

Related to this, does anyone know why trade union membership is particularly high in Scandinavian countries. In Sweden, Denmark and Norway, it's over 50%.

[Ginger Yellow]

Large public sector workforce combined with egalitarian politics?

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

I don't know. Malcolm gladwell types might posit that it comes from an awareness that defending your interests (either working conditions or not dying of hunger and cold) requires a certain level of action at appropriate times, and the long term planning needed to survive in such a marginal climate, combined with an acknowledgement that you have to adapt to external circumstances.

Either way they've managed to use the modern economic environment to construct massively wealthy societies, with relatively small degrees on inequality. Perhaps the time has come for people to pay more attention to how they go about things.

This is a table of such things over time The mad one is france at 7.7% and neighbouring belgium at 55%. What the fuck is going on there I wonder?

[Capybara]

Perhaps the unemployment insurance system is a factor.

[Ginger Yellow]

No. 10 now spinning that there won't be transition payments without a trade deal, which presumably means no transition without a trade deal. On the one hand, fair enough, it doesn't make a huge amount of sense to have an expensive transition if you're not transitioning to something good. On the other hand, the UK government's refusal to engage with the details of separation means there's clearly no chance of getting even a framework for a trade deal in time. Hard Brexit here we come. The article also confirms my suspicion that the line in May's speech about honouring obligations didn't include pensions.

[Kevin S]

Thread:

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/915202189584367616

[Tubby Isaacs]

No. 10 now spinning that there won't be transition payments without a trade deal, which presumably means no transition without a trade deal. On the one hand, fair enough, it doesn't make a huge amount of sense to have an expensive transition if you're not transitioning to something good. On the other hand, the UK government's refusal to engage with the details of separation means there's clearly no chance of getting even a framework for a trade deal in time. Hard Brexit here we come. The article also confirms my suspicion that the line in May's speech about honouring obligations didn't include pensions.

Wouldn't it make some sense to pay for extra years in the Single Market, even if you're going to do Hard Brexit afterwards? Firms can try to adjust, the government can try to improve its systems. You'd have, say, 4 years for that instead of 18 months, which would make a difference.

Going to be some nice money for IT professionals in all of this.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The Pound isn't collapsing too obviously. Is the new position being written off as conference bollocks?

[Ginger Yellow]

Wouldn't it make some sense to pay for extra years in the Single Market, even if you're going to do Hard Brexit afterwards?

I mean, I think so. But I think we shouldn't be doing Brexit at all, so it doesn't really matter what I think. But if you're the sort of person who thinks a hard Brexit is a reasonable thing to happen, then you're probably thinking you could fudge it with Ł20bn in cash.

[Tubby Isaacs]

One of the rare members of the government who understands this stuff.

Small business minister Margot James has sounded a cautious note about Brexiteers being too optimistic about trade deals post Brexit. She told a fringe meeting:

There is a little bit of an over-optimistic attitude about the extent of trade we can summon up with Commonwealth countries.

There are 51 of them. We export more to Germany [than] we do to the entire Commonwealth, so there’s a lot of work to be done ... We export seven times as much to Germany as we do to India.
(Politics Live, Guardian)

[Tubby Isaacs]

Gove made a pig's ear of pigs ears.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...es-say-farmers

He said one of the reasons” why Britain had not been “as successful as we might have been at selling pigs’ ears to China is that EU rules dictate that pigs, like all livestock, have ear tags”. He said that outside of the EU this would not be necessary, meaning that “by selling more sows’ ears to China we can buy more silk purses for British farmers”.

EU rules on food traceability, however, do not mandate that pigs’ ears must be pierced. A 2008 EU directive states that pigs must be marked “with an ear tag or tattoo to determine the holding from which they came”.

The British Agriculture Bureau in Brussels said UK farmers did not ear-tag “finisher pigs” (those destined for slaughter), preferring “slap marking” tattoos on the animal’s shoulder. “So anything going to China would not have an ear tag,” the spokesperson added.

I mean this stuff is only his own brief. It would be totally unfair to think he should know this stuff.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Farmer's leader schools Gove.

[E10 Rifle]

Do simpering hacks still produce profiles of Gove saying how charming and erudite he is in person? Or has that line of always-irrelevant jabber finally run its course?

[Lang Spoon]

It’s like how during his brief pre 2010 honeymoon every soft soap profile of Gordon Brown went out of its way to say how funny thoughtful and good company he could be in private. I’ve a terrible feeling those weak sauce excuses have been made for me as well. Curse of Fife, volcanically misunderstood.

I hate bullies but can’t help myself siding with Gove’s schoolyard Doric tormentors when a wee bit loon. Teacher’s Pet, clipe, sneak, tell-tale. Can just smell it off him. Scripture Union weekends away camping, bet even those fine upstanding Young Conservatives would have been going full Private Pile on him with pillowcases and bars of soap. The most hittable cunt there’s ever been.

[Amor de Cosmos]

Everytime someone badmouths Gove on here I feel — as a fellow QPR supporter — I should defend him. But... nah. I got nuthin.'

[Lang Spoon]

Does he actually turn up at Loftus Rd like Michael Howard swoops down upon Anfield, or is he just like Cameron or Blair?

[E10 Rifle]

Didn't Michael Howard also claim to be Swansea once?

Had never heard of Gove's QPR connection

[Amor de Cosmos]

No he's solid. Has season tickets in the family area. He bought them when his son started to "take an unhealthy interest in Chelsea." They've been regulars for about five years.

[Lang Spoon]

Mibees Howard is Swansea and Liverpool like I’m Raith Rovers and Liverpool. Till about 10 years ago the idea of Swansea being in the same division as Liverpool would have been the stuff of a madman’s dream. Think there’s been more than one game where the camera has panned to “passionate Liverpool supporter” Howard. Bet fucking Tyldesley is solid Tory. Getting behind Brexit.

[Lang Spoon]

I know it’s been a hard few years for QPR Amor, but fucking hell I'm sorry to hear that. A new low.