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    [URL]https://twitter.com/chrisgreybrexit/status/1171735065111474177?s=21[/URL]

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      Straight from the Trump playbook.

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        The Speaker is biased, the courts are biased, the EU is biased...what or who next?

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          The Justice Secretary and the leader of the Scottish Tories have each tweeted defending the Scottish courts (in response to the "No 10 sources" quote).

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              I don't envy the Supreme Court here.

              They are going to have to rule on appeals from three different decisions issued by three different court systems applying three different sets of law to the same set of facts.

              And though we don't yet know what the Northern Irish decision will be, we do know that they will be facing a situation in which their confirmation of both the English and Scottish rulings will lead to the precise result that the English court ought to avoid.

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                They don't have to come up with one answer, do they? They can rule that the prorogation was legal under English law but not under Scots, but as parliament is the national executive of both countries it's dealings must be complaint with the laws of both. The Scots law doesn't trump the English one anymore than it would do in reverse. It's just the government is more constrained than it thought it was - it always needs the acquiescence of both the High Court and the Court of Session to it's actions.

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                  That's all correct (and the Northern Irish decision can complicate things further), but it isn't going to be the way the press, the parties or most of the great British public are going to see it.

                  It will be cast as a matter of "winning" or "losing" a question of massive political importance, which is a dangerous place for a judicial institution that is still trying to establish its legitimacy to find itself.

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                    Agree it will be seen as win/lose, English/Scottish, particularly in the media's eyes - and as an aside no doubt the Sun will be running with two different front pages again tomorrow.

                    Of course it's easy to fall into this trap and I'm rooting for 'our side' to 'win' on Tuesday - but for now I'm more interested in what has happened behind the scenes here. The fact that the Scottish court is clearly pointing towards the evidence provided by the government being unable to prove that their reasons for proroguing were as they stated (to advance the domestic agenda) is aligning with the information that Grieve seems to have, and with David Allen Green's theorising about the missing witness statement. I'm putting a lot of hope on Friday's full judgment from the court sign posting some of this more explicitly, and we are still waiting on the government complying (or not complying) with the Grieve humble address. And that's without any further leaks emerging. I don't see how they can ride this out, but of course they'll try.

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                      I think you will be disappointed in that respect.

                      As I read the summary, the Scottish appeal essentially rested on the fact that they believed that the government bore the burden of proving that the stated reason for the progrogation was the real one, and that they failed miserably to meet that burden. The missing witness statement is a key part of that failure, but the court doesn't need to analyze it in detail.

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                        At this point, do we even want Johnson to fall? He can't get anything through parliament, he may be legally compelled to be the person who signs the letter asking for an extension to No Deal. Isn't it better to keep playing puppetmaster with him and then vote No Confidence on the grounds of accumulated evidence when it feels like his populist appeal has foundered as his 'strong man' image stands in contrast to his inability to get anything done.

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                          I have that thought too - whilst parliament is not able to sit, it means they can't call a GE, which they don't want to. If Parliament sits, they'll just keep beating him, but not actually having a GE either, which will not be a good look.

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                            A plethora of poll findings by Lord Ashcroft on Northern Ireland, but the main ones see 51% express a preference for a united Ireland, 55% would rather remain in the EU than the UK, and 60% support the backstop:

                            https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/0...-a-knife-edge/

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                              Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
                              I think you will be disappointed in that respect.

                              As I read the summary, the Scottish appeal essentially rested on the fact that they believed that the government bore the burden of proving that the stated reason for the progrogation was the real one, and that they failed miserably to meet that burden. The missing witness statement is a key part of that failure, but the court doesn't need to analyze it in detail.
                              The judges have slightly different takes on it - Lord Drummond Young is in line with your reading:

                              It was incumbent on the UK Government to show a valid reason for the prorogation the documents provided showed no other explanation for this [other than to avoid scrutiny]. The only inference that could be drawn was that the UK Government and the Prime Minister wished to restrict Parliament.

                              While Lord Carloway goes further:

                              the content of the documents produced by the respondent demonstrated that this [to stymie parliamentary scrutiny of the executive] was the true reason for the prorogation.

                              Keir Starmer is certainly running with the latter:

                              But for a court to say that the documents really point one way, that they undermine his case to a point where they have ruled him unlawful, that’s an incredibly powerful thing for them to have done.

                              And while he would say that wouldn't he, I'm still expecting that in the full judgment with further reasoning set out, the Lord Carloway opinion has to be backed up in some way, because it's a strong statement to make. For the record Lord Brodie was also on "inference".

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                                Interesting.

                                I read Carloway's reference to "content" as meaning what wasn't there, rather than what was, but one can certainly read it the other way.

                                Seems to me that the most effective political attack line here is "Johnson lies to the Queen", though I tend to think that case will ultimately rest on inference.

                                Do we know if the final decision is going to be three separate statements or a single judgement?

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                                  From my occasional brushes with Scottish law (not like that), I'd guess three separate statements.

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                                    Ah, that would be highly unusual here, and would seem to me to make the Supreme Court's task yet more challenging.

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                                      Originally posted by Janik View Post
                                      At this point, do we even want Johnson to fall? He can't get anything through parliament, he may be legally compelled to be the person who signs the letter asking for an extension to No Deal. Isn't it better to keep playing puppetmaster with him and then vote No Confidence on the grounds of accumulated evidence when it feels like his populist appeal has foundered as his 'strong man' image stands in contrast to his inability to get anything done.
                                      I think that is very much what's playing out isn't it? He's looked like an absolute dilweed all month. In the words of Paul Keating, I want to do you slowly.

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                                        Laura spinning furiously.

                                        [URL="https://mobile.twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1171719368360824832"]https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1171719368360824832[/URL]

                                        "Believed this was likely in late July"?

                                        Dom Cummings also has a PlayStation 6. No, you can't see it, it's at his uncles house.

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                                          She will believe any old shite they tell her, won't she?

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                                            I'm genuinely not sure that "belief" comes into it.

                                            She appears to see her role as a stenographer for the Government.

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                                              And she can't do that correctly - e.g. she types "engraged" and fails to correct it.

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                                                So while all this drags on, the EU still keeps making sounds that there will be no extension forthcoming, and it turns out that the new EU trade Commissioner is going to be perhaps the most belligerent and pig-ignorant man in Ireland.

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                                                  If there is an general election scheduled, there will be an extension

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                                                    A day or so old, but...we really do need to 'Remain and Reform' the EU https://twitter.com/joncstone/status...84576213692417

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