The Brexit Thread

[George C.]

Fair dos, but given the current Parliamentary arithmetic, surely that's an oxymoron?

Do they list any source?

[Nefertiti2]

[URL]https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1171373998426533889?s=21[/URL]

[ursus arctos]

It isn't unusual for private polling to be faster than public polls, in part because samples are often smaller. That would allow it to better reflect reactions to the recent chaos. They may also have a different methodology for translating polling preferences into seats.

In any event, there was chatter yesterday that had them even lower (high 270s to mid 280s).

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Maybe the tories are less interested in lying to themselves about certain things, than they are to lying to the public. I find myself not trusting UK opinion polls for much the same reason that I find myself distrusting much of the rest of UK political news.

[Duncan Gardner]

My local MP Margot James (one of the 21 sacked by Johnson and Cummings) has told the local press she may stand as an independent. Could be a crowded field

[Flynnie]

The Tories got 317 last time thanks to 13 seats in Scotland and 21 seats in London. The Liberals were also all but shut out of the South West again. You have to think many of those seats are under threat.

They'd have to do really well in ex-mining towns that voted Leave to get back to 317 or a majority, running an election campaign headed by a doddering Old Etonian. I can't see it happening, personally.

[Nocturnal Submission]

The Tories got 317 last time thanks to 13 seats in Scotland and 21 seats in London. The Liberals were also all but shut out of the South West again. You have to think many of those seats are under threat.

They'd have to do really well in ex-mining towns that voted Leave to get back to 317 or a majority, running an election campaign headed by a doddering Old Etonian. I can't see it happening, personally.

I've given up trying to predict anything in UK politics at the moment, the situation is far to volatile and the variables endless. But the Conservatives might reason that if they managed to obtain over 13-and-a-half million votes at the last GE, 42.4% of the national vote, following one of their worst campaigns in living memory, built around one of their least inspiring manifestos and fronted by one of their least charismatic leaders then, even if the political climate is less favourable, they should at least manage to improve in all of those areas.

[Satchmo Distel]

Yesterday must have contained more Tory lies and rudeness in one day's debating than any other day I can recall. The corker was that a GE would be a more accurate reflection of public opinion on Brexit than, er, a 2nd Referendum where Brexit is the only issue. And the obvious lie that people knew they were voting for a possible No Deal in 2016 when infact they were told Brexit would give them all the benefits of withdrawal without any of the costs.

[pebblethefish]

Did anyone actually mention the Ireland border back in 2016? I know I probably wouldn't have paid it much attention, but I don't remember either side so much as mentioning something that has been such a massive obstacle.

[E10 Rifle]

Neither side did mention it.

[Nocturnal Submission]

I think I've heard that the issue was raised, possibly by Major and Blair, but it certainly wasn't a massive talking point and would probably have been waved away as a detail that would easily be overcome in negotiations even if it was.

[Nefertiti2]

Maybe the tories are less interested in lying to themselves about certain things, than they are to lying to the public. I find myself not trusting UK opinion polls for much the same reason that I find myself distrusting much of the rest of UK political news.

It's incredibly difficult to do 4 way polling, but the huge variability is in how likely the different pollsters think Labour voters are to go the polls.

[Duncan Gardner]

Summary from 2017

I've arbitrarily divided the country into 2 almost equal halves (319 and 331 seats). The South (including East Midlands for this purpose), then the other bit with all the good football teams as Leon Brittan called it on Spitting Image. Thus, about 70% of Tory seats are in the South, and a similar proportion of Labour the North

[Satchmo Distel]

Did the border only become an issue because the Tories needed the DUP following the 2017 GE? How easy would it be for Johnson to drop the issue now that the DUP is an irrelevance? Are the No Dealers too sold on the importance of the backstop issue to give it up?

But I think the more important obstacle to Johnson reneging on the backstop is that his macho anti-EU posturing and fear of Farage depends on No Deal being accomplished.

[anton pulisov]

Did the border only become an issue because the Tories needed the DUP following the 2017 GE?

If the Tories actually gave a crap about NI they would never gone into coalition with the DUP in the first place.

So yeah, the Paddies (orange or green ones) and their border is only a side show.

[Etienne]

The DUP aren't a complete irrelevance. Sure they have lost some leverage, but unless the Tories are very confident of getting 340+ seats, then they might well find 10 DUP votes very useful after the elections.

[George C.]

With respect that table's fairly pointless now...

[Duncan Gardner]

George C- with equal respect, I think it has some value. For example in showing how difficult it will still be for the Lib Dems to win lots of seats in their supposed heartland.

Generally, I find recent results with most of the same parties and exactly the same seats a better guide than what some guy on the internet's imaginary unnamed friend may have said on Twitter

@Etienne.Some change in DUP numbers is possible. Could gain Down North from Sylvia Hermon or lose Belfast South where the combined Unionist vote is less than 35%

[George C.]

George C- with equal respect, I think it has some value. For example in showing how difficult it will still be for the Lib Dems to win lots of seats in their supposed heartland.

Generally, I find recent results with most of the same parties and exactly the same seats a better guide than what some guy on the internet's imaginary unnamed friend may have said on Twitter

The former you have a slight point maybe. The latter one makes no sense. As per usual. Especially as No-one mentioned Twitter?

[Nefertiti2]

There was a suggestion that Sinn Fein might agree to stand down in some areas in favour of a Non Unionist who was prepared to take their seat. Do you know if it has any credibility?

[Duncan Gardner]

It's plausible. SF have fielded paper candidates in recent GEs, as have the SDLP. In such cases the candidate tends to be either very young (so not widely known), or semi-retired (so unlikely to canvass)

Belfast South as above has had a higher SDLP than SF support in recent elections

[Nocturnal Submission]

I've given up trying to predict anything in UK politics at the moment, the situation is far to volatile and the variables endless. But the Conservatives might reason that if they managed to obtain over 13-and-a-half million votes at the last GE, 42.4% of the national vote, following one of their worst campaigns in living memory, built around one of their least inspiring manifestos and fronted by one of their least charismatic leaders then, even if the political climate is less favourable, they should at least manage to improve in all of those areas.

This is going to help too: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49646201

The Conservative manifesto will contain a wide range of spending commitments so in the GE, whenever it comes, Labour and the other parties will have to go hard on the effects of austerity, the competency of the previous administration and present a coherent Brexit strategy.

[George C.]

Or they could just follow the Lib Dem lead of campaigning to Revoke Article 50 instead of bothering any more with the whole Brexit farce.

[Snake Plissken]

Which would establish the precedent of unilaterally deciding on our EU membership for a future Tory Government.

It's almost as if she doesn't think this stuff through.

(The realistic fallback position for the LDs is now that of Labour.)

[Nefertiti2]

The next phase in the Cummings take over. Remember all those petitions you signed...

[URL]https://twitter.com/alexgspence/status/1171419532721672192?s=21[/URL]