The Brexit Thread

[Tubby Isaacs]

Take that, Redwood.

Labour 44% (+2)
CON: 40% (-1)
LDEM: 9% (-)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
GRN: 1% (-1)
via @IpsosMORI, 15 - 18 Sep

[Lang Spoon]

The guilty men unmasked! Brexit's easy, it's just Sir Humphrey and his foreign mates making it hard.

Between demonizing the Civil Service and Johnson accusing every voter under 30 of divided loyalties, they seem to be going for scorched earth. They will have their calamitous Brexit for the Great British People, even if it destroys the Tory party for years to come. Or maybe they’ve stopped caring that their undeserved reputation for economic competence kept getting them elected, and are content just to dog whistle to the racist scared and ignorant.

[Lang Spoon]

Labour 44% (+2)
CON: 40% (-1)
LDEM: 9% (-)
UKIP: 2% (-1)
GRN: 1% (-1)
via @IpsosMORI, 15 - 18 Sep

The bad part of me is hoping for a foul winter crossed with a nasty flu epidemic, and mibbees a few percent more codgers in Union Jack slippers peg it than expected before the next election.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Between demonizing the Civil Service and Johnson accusing every voter under 30 of divided loyalties, they seem to be going for scorched earth. They will have their calamitous Brexit for the Great British People, even if it destroys the Tory party for years to come. Or maybe they’ve stopped caring that their undeserved reputation for economic competence kept getting them elected, and are content just to dog whistle to the racist scared and ignorant.

They've still got an unearned reputation for being the best party to negotiate Brexit too. Hopefully that'll go and take the economic confidence lark with it.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Redwood's got more.

John Redwood @johnredwood
There are too many interests and individuals who want to undermine the UK position by constantly urging us to make concessions to the EU.

How does that work? Barnier and all think "Fuck, we're losing this Brexit thing! Oh look, Vince Cable's hinted at concessions. That means we can front out our really inferior position!"

[Tubby Isaacs]

Stay in single market with free movement 38%
End free movement even if means leaving single market 39%
Not sure 24%

Latest Opinium Poll.

Given that "everybody agrees the referendum was about freedom of movement", that's very interesting

[Ginger Yellow]

Seems to align pretty exactly with the referendum result.

[Ginger Yellow]

Bloody Poles, stealing British jobs

[Etienne]

We appear to still want cake in our stomach and our fridge.

[E10 Rifle]

May seems to be under the impression she's addressing the old codgers at the Tory party conference here.

[Tubby Isaacs]

She is, plus the great British public who still think this drivel is "Prime Ministerial".

[E10 Rifle]

"Deep and special" is her new "strong and stable". Good luck with that

[Diable Rouge]

May seems to be under the impression she's addressing the old codgers at the Tory party conference here.

You're being very generous in even drawing a conclusion from that load of waffle.

[E10 Rifle]

Love the way this sort of stuff gets picked over as if it's on tablets brought down from the mountain. Enough of this dead-air filler and froth. Tell us what's going on in Burma or Barcelona instead.

[Ginger Yellow]

So, the only "new" proposal is a standstill with budget contributions? Nothing at all on citizens' rights post-transition? She really was aiming that at the Tory conference, wasn't she?

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

She wants you to earnestly believe her good intentions about the future of EU citizens. But also to trust UK courts.

This would have worked better if the Daily mail hadn't called the Supreme court the enemies of the people while printing their pictures, all for saying that parliament was sovereign and there had to be the formality of a vote on article 50. and if Theresa May had said anything at all about this appalling assault on the independence of the judiciary.

She's going to have to do a lot better than this.

[E10 Rifle]

She isn't going to though

[Tubby Isaacs]

It all sounds a bit thin. There was lots of talk about a (low) financial offer. Wonder if there was one taken out late in the day.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Bloody Poles, stealing British jobs

That's how bad Britain is now. Blue chippers think the current Polish Government are less of a risk.

[Snake Plissken]

Barniers response.

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release...17-3427_en.htm

Basically, "enough waffle, show me the detail".

[Ginger Yellow]

It all sounds a bit thin. There was lots of talk about a (low) financial offer. Wonder if there was one taken out late in the day.

The transition payments are the offer. Though it's somewhat ambiguous as to what is intended.

Still I do not want our partners to fear that they will need to pay more or receive less over the remainder of the current budget plan as a result of our decision to leave. The UK will honour commitments we have made during the period of our membership.

And as we move forwards, we will also want to continue working together in ways that promote the long-term economic development of our continent.

This includes continuing to take part in those specific policies and programmes which are greatly to the UK and the EU’s joint advantage, such as those that promote science, education and culture – and those that promote our mutual security.

And as I set out in my speech at Lancaster House, in doing so, we would want to make an ongoing contribution to cover our fair share of the costs involved.

To me, that reads as budget contributions along current lines (though maybe legally not actually budget contributions) during the transition, then only select payments for specific programmes. No acceptance of long term commitments like pension liabilities.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Nigel Farage, the former Ukip leader, has told Sky News that May’s announcement means the UK will not be signing any trade deals until 2022. It means Britain is not open for business, he says.

I thought he'd gone full Trump protectionist some time ago?

Can somebody explain why we didn't do preparation for 2 years, then do Article 50? Why did we do Article 50 then want a 2 year extension? If I understand it correctly, we're currently leaving in 2019 but staying in till 2021, obeying rules which can be changed as rEU wish, and with us having no veto.

Is this correct?

[Tubby Isaacs]

The transition payments are the offer. Though it's somewhat ambiguous as to what is intended.


To me, that reads as budget contributions along current lines (though maybe legally not actually budget contributions) during the transition, then only select payments for specific programmes. No acceptance of long term commitments like pension liabilities.

Cheers. I was thinking of a specific figure.

Wasn't there also a bit about paying what we owe? That would presumably involve pensions.

[Ginger Yellow]

Because the Tories are fucking idiots who wanted to go into what they thought would be a 2020 election having left the EU.

[Ginger Yellow]

Sounds like Barnier (on behalf of Varadkar?), is getting tired of the NI border waffle:

With regard to Ireland, the United Kingdom is the co-guarantor of the Good Friday Agreement. Today's speech does not clarify how the UK intends to honour its special responsibility for the consequences of its withdrawal for Ireland. Our objective is to preserve the Good Friday Agreement in all its dimensions, as well as the integrity of the Single Market and the Customs Union.