The Brexit Thread

[ursus arctos]

I am nowhere near as certain of either part of that equation as you appear to be,

[Nocturnal Submission]

Well, I wouldn't say that I'm certain, but I'd be most surprised if something neither the Commons nor the EU wanted to happen came to to pass.

[ursus arctos]

Because that hasn't been happening for the last several years, eh?

[Fussbudget]

Also note the brexit party logo functioning as a pointer on the ballot -which should have been found unacceptable IMO

Far be it from me to pay the Brexit Party any kind of compliment, but I've been kind of impressed by how sleek and cleverly designed their whole branding has been, especially compared to the complete shambles that is Change UK's, or UKIP's pound shop efforts.

Which to me points back to the nebulous question of who is funding them and organising all this, because not only have they not had much time to put something so professional together, but the clean and modern look is also not the direction that you'd expect from the type of people publicly associated with the party.

[ursus arctos]

Interesting story, that

[URL]https://twitter.com/otto_english/status/1128177044628627456?s=21[/URL]

[Fussbudget]

Thanks ursus, interesting read indeed.

[Nocturnal Submission]

Because that hasn't been happening for the last several years, eh?

Well, things within their control, obviously. I don't suppose either wanted Doris Day to pop her clogs but it would probably be harsh to level any blame at them.

[sw2borshch]

TBP Ltd & UKIP have also been very canny with their targeted mailshots.

[Nefertiti2]

https://twitter.com/benton_dan/status/1129826272178331648

[Diable Rouge]

http://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1129830984608899074

[DCI Harry Batt]

Can you imagine what 81 Brexit Party MPs would be like? Jesus.

[Nocturnal Submission]

Quite shocking that a 29% share of the vote almost gets you a majority. And that the Brexit Party are only 5 points off it.

[Diable Rouge]

Quite shocking that a 29% share of the vote almost gets you a majority. And that the Brexit Party are only 5 points off it.

At 17%, Brexit only get 1-2 MPs, so FPTP scales up incredibly above 20%, and in a fragmented scenario, far more so than in 2010.

[Fussbudget]

I love how they can't even be bothered to colour in Northern Ireland on that map.

Can you imagine what 81 Brexit Party MPs would be like? Jesus.

I know this is all hypothetical at this point as we're talking about an imaginary election, but would they even have enough candidates for this?

[Fussbudget]

Wait, do none of the national polls actually cover Northern Ireland? The most recent one they have on there is from February.

[ooh aah]

Having looked at those 81 seats projected for the Brexit Party, I could only find 3 that were Labour in 2017. The rest are all Tory seats. That suggests that the idea that Labour had to be so wary of siding with remain is probably somewhat unfounded.

[Nefertiti2]

When it comes to it a First Past the Post election system a new party -nobody has a clue.

[Duncan Gardner]

Wait, do none of the national polls actually cover Northern Ireland? The most recent one they have on there is from February.

Variously, NI features

a) small sale- less than 3% of the population of Britain

b) different party system (or perhaps more accurately/ pejoratively, most of the national parties can't be bothered, or worse intimidate their own local activists)

c) multi-member constituencies with transferrable votes, so they're much less likely to be wasted on losing candidates. While the overall result will be both more proportionate than FPTP while remaining the constituency link, unlike additional member and closed list systems

Note: we use d'Hondt in the Euros because

d) the EU insisted on a (more) proportionate system but

e) the Tories (with Labour's tacit support) feared that a transferrable system would lose them seats

[Fussbudget]

Dunc, the polls I was referring to were for a general election, not the Euro election. I know NI have their own funny thing going on a lot of the time, but surely they don't have transferrable votes in a GE, just straight old FPTP like the rest of us?

[Duncan Gardner]

Sorry, my mistake.

For more details on NI specific polling, see Lucid Talk linked by Diable Rouge on parallel Euro Elections thread.

The next NI general election will probably return 11 Unionists (I think all DUP) and 7 Nationalists (ditto SF), unless 'others' can carry excellent local result into a GE.

[Nefertiti2]

Dunc, the polls I was referring to were for a general election, not the Euro election. I know NI have their own funny thing going on a lot of the time, but surely they don't have transferrable votes in a GE, just straight old FPTP like the rest of us?

They do have transferrable votes during a GE. I once added up the differnt voting systems that exist in the UK. If you add Mayoral elections, Scottish and Welsh Assemblies, European elections and different rules in some councils there are about 7 or 8

[Etienne]

They don't have transferrable votes during a GE.

[Nefertiti2]

You're right- apologies

[Guy Profumo]

A question.


In the unlikely event Brenda karks it before Thursday, will the elections be suspended?

[Diable Rouge]

A question.


In the unlikely event Brenda karks it before Thursday, will the elections be suspended?

They'd have to hold them by Sunday, anyway, to sync the results with the rest of Europe.