The Brexit Thread

[ursus arctos]

Agreeing to meet seems like a no-brainer to me. Refusing to do so would be a gift to the Tories.

[Nefertiti2]

to me destroying the cancer that is the current Tory party is more important than anything. We also need a written constitution, like the German model that ensures civil rights including trade union rights and has an elevted second chamber.

[Lang Spoon]

The WA doesn't tie any course to the Future Arrangements negotiations AFAIK. The political declaration part is effectively blather.

WA then election?

[Lang Spoon]

to me destroying the cancer that is the current Tory party is more important than anything. We also need a written constitution, like the German model that ensures civil rights including trade union rights and has an elevted second chamber.

When you look at what it took for Germany to get to the Basic Law, it was a v high collateral price. And lest we forget it was the Labour Movement that torpedoed "in place of strife", which would have created a German type model for Labour relations to Wilsonian Britain.

[Lang Spoon]

the idea Britiain or British pencilnecks invented Germany's current fairly decent constitution is overstated, but it's a real fucking pity the same processes weren't undertaken by the Labour govt in 1945. The seductive power of "Parliamentary/Executive Sovereignty".

[SouthdownRebel]

Yes, the idea that Brexit might be the death of the Tories was apparent from day one. As LS suggests, the question is how many eggs is one prepared to break for that particular omelette. It's an uncomfortable question to have to ponder in the context of the concerns about no deal.

[Lang Spoon]

I fear that as always in Glorious British history, the wrong people are going to die at the end of this process.

[SouthdownRebel]

Meanwhile, a pro-Brexit plot that would offer the easiest cover-up in the history of everything. There's at least an even chance their sabotage would actually improve the service.

[Snake Plissken]

So, after four years of painting Corbyn as unfit to govern, May goes over her own party to talk to him, thus legitimising him.

Truly, she is worthy of Machiavelli.

[San Bernardhinault]

So, how would OTF feel about Brexit if a) it splits the Tories for at least generation, rendering them incapable of getting close to a majority and b) is followed by a Labour government and a relatively quick re-accession process?

If you could guarantee a quick re-accession it would be less terrifying. I see nothing to suggest that even a Berbaslug-style scorched earth outcome from a No Deal brexit would lead to a quick reaccession. Our right wing would just consider the disaster to be one created by the EU and by Remainers who were intent on sabotage.

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

It's a complete scam, put together with post-it notes and designed to tick as many boxes as possible - avoid making a decision, keep the cabinet together for a few more days, keep the party together for a few more days, find a way of blaming Corbyn, and keep a route open to no deal. The warning signs are there - no change to the WA, no participation in the Euro elections. And she has the nerve to call it a national unity option. Corbyn should keep this as short as possible, let her own it and move straight onto the parliamentary battle.

[Satchmo Distel]

The current positions of May and Labour are irreconcilable so one or both will have to give up something pretty major.

Could Corbyn perhaps agree to wave through the WA but make it conditional on a GE after which it could then be renegotiated by the winning party? Would the Tories allow May to fight a GE or would they postpone the GE until after a Tory leadership contest?

I still think the risk to the Tories from this path is so dire that they'll refuse to budge, then blame Corbyn for the No Deal that results. They have already ruled out a GE anyway, as I understand it, whereas Corbyn must surely demand one.

[Flynnie]

Also remember that quick re-accession means the euro and no more opt-outs and rebates. I’m not sure too many people really care about the latter but the former will be big, even if it does permanently fuck any chance of Brexit.

[Satchmo Distel]

Also remember that quick re-accession means the euro and no more opt-outs and rebates. I’m not sure too many people really care about the latter but the former will be big, even if it does permanently fuck any chance of Brexit.

I don't think May or Corbyn want readmission so the choice will be May's deal v CU/Norway+ or some fudge that combines them in some way (not sure how)

Also not sure how that plays out in a 2nd referendum. I imagine Corbyn would campaign for CU rather than Remain.

[tee rex]

Things to explain to your grandkids: Britain had to accept a crap deal and screw future generations because otherwise they would have had to participate in European elections.

Have a hug, you poor sods.

[Nocturnal Submission]

Given that the DUP and the hard-core of the ERG will never vote for the WA it looks like May's best bet to get it over the line is to try and attract as many of the Leave-minded Labour MPs as possible, hence the pivot and preparedness to engage. I don't think that as a Remainer, albeit a soft one, she'd want a No Deal, and the bulk of the Cabinet wouldn't wear it either.

It's probably worthwhile bearing in mind that if the WA gets through the DUP will probably try to bring down the government, which is what Corbyn says he wants. Bit of strategic potential there if he wants to go for it.

[DCI Harry Batt]

Corbyn isn't really going to fall for this, is he?

[Nefertiti2]

the bulk of the cabinet voted for no deal or a short extension

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1113146272414871559

[Nocturnal Submission]

Things to explain to your grandkids: Britain had to accept a crap deal and screw future generations because otherwise they would have had to participate in European elections.

Have a hug, you poor sods.

Yes, the reasons for the utter dread of fighting the elections to the European Parliament is slightly passing me by.

[Nocturnal Submission]

the bulk of the cabinet voted for no deal or a short extension

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1113146272414871559

No way are there 14 members of the Cabinet that would accept a No Deal.

[San Bernardhinault]

The Euro-election deadline is the most ridiculous nonsense of the lot. It's not as if having MEPs means Britain has to stay in for the full term of the European parliament. It's May creating a fake deadline where one doesn't really exist to continue her attempts at brinkmanship.

[Ginger Yellow]

So, how would OTF feel about Brexit if a) it splits the Tories for at least generation, rendering them incapable of getting close to a majority and b) is followed by a Labour government and a relatively quick re-accession process?

Define relatively quick, but that would probably be a worthwhile bargain, depending on what it did to Labour in the process. But I can't imagine it being a realistic option.

[Lang Spoon]

NS, I wish I had your unbounded optimism.

[Lang Spoon]

If the Tories died/split, something worse would fill the vacuum. At least 30% of the British electorate seem irredeemable cunts. And that's being generous.

[Ginger Yellow]

The Euro-election deadline is the most ridiculous nonsense of the lot. It's not as if having MEPs means Britain has to stay in for the full term of the European parliament. It's May creating a fake deadline where one doesn't really exist to continue her attempts at brinkmanship.

I kind of feel the same way, but it's not just coming from the UK. The EU isn't happy about UK MEPs getting to vote on a president and then fucking off, and individual countries aren't happy about what would happen re: allocations of MEPs.