The Brexit Thread

[Fussbudget]

It's becoming really difficult to work out if people are voting against the customs union/EEA options because they're hard Brexit (Hoey, Hepburn et al.) or because they're hard Remain (presumably Owen Smith and the TIGs? Also the Stockton South MP who I'm pretty sure isn't a Brexiter.)

Edit: sorry, I see the TIG/Lib Dem stance is already being discussed at length, for some reason the last post that was appearing for me on this thread before I posted was TonTon's 22:18 but I can see this last page now.

[Satchmo Distel]

No Deal looks strong favourite to me unless Labour can win a Vote of No Confidence.

[Evariste Euler Gauss]

I'm disappointed with TIG and (some) Lib Dems for voting against Common Market 2.0. I mean, I understand it, because it's obviously inferior to Remain, but for Christ's sake, given where we are, I'd take that option. Crucially, it would preserve FoM, which is the emotional driver for me.

[Janik]

No Deal looks strong favourite to me unless Labour can win a Vote of No Confidence.

Opposing No Deal was the one thing that parliament could actually find a majority for, mind. But not for any mechanism which says agree a deal or Article 50 is automatically revoked. Which makes the vote against No Deal completely pointless.

[Lurgee]

"A good compromise leaves everybody mad."

- Calvin and Hobbes.

Clarke's option would probably be close to reflecting the mood of the country - leaving the EU (because they won) but not very much (because they didn't win by much.)

ChUK and Lib Dems can fuck off up the hill to fairyland. They're enabling a hard brexit.

[SouthdownRebel]

A neat demonstration of the failing of a FPTP system. What happens when nothing gets past the post.

[Antepli Ejderha]

SNAFU or FUBAR?

Would the EU have agreed to either of the two proposals? Clarke or Boles I mean.

And what is the major difference between them?

May was allowed to fail three times so perhaps these should be allowed to as well. It's looking like a general election or a no deal is going to be the outcome.

[Snake Plissken]

I'm disappointed with TIG and (some) Lib Dems for voting against Common Market 2.0. I mean, I understand it, because it's obviously inferior to Remain, but for Christ's sake, given where we are, I'd take that option. Crucially, it would preserve FoM, which is the emotional driver for me.

Apparently what makes Corbyn so unpalatable is his and his supporters demands for ideological purity.

This lot remind me of those who wanted PR but voted against AV.

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

I'm disappointed with TIG and (some) Lib Dems for voting against Common Market 2.0. I mean, I understand it, because it's obviously inferior to Remain, but for Christ's sake, given where we are, I'd take that option. Crucially, it would preserve FoM, which is the emotional driver for me.

Can't help but think this is the point that will be picked over for years to come - that the majority of the Commons were against No Deal, and against May's Deal, and yet they couldn't organise themselves to stop one or the other happening. I can't see exactly how they will get there, but it gives the government some space to engineer a straight 'Deal or No Deal' choice. Clearly a different approach is needed in tomorrow's debate and votes to head that off.

[Etienne]

Remainers voting against the Customs Union is reasonable, but voting against the 2.0 is difficult to justify. However, nothing is getting adopted as national policy with only 30-40 Tories supporting it, even if it could scrape a majority in the Commons.

[Etienne]

The reason for voting against the Customs Union is that if it had won then the Tories would have put it up against May's deal in a straight one vs one and any Remainy options would have been off the table.

[DCI Harry Batt]

I support PR and voted against AV, because it's rubbish. If I thought Common Market 2.0 was worse than No Deal, I'd vote against it.

[Snake Plissken]

Except it obviously isn’t.

[Flynnie]

That's intriguing.

Paul Embery is being extra racist today. I wonder if those "on the left" happy to share platforms with him will ever feel ashamed?

Seems unlikely.

There needs to be a separate term for the Blue Labour/Spiked contingent of Lexiters (which is actually most Lexiters) and their fellow travellers like Lapavitsas.

Bluxiters?

[Snake Plissken]

No. Let’s be clear here.

The four votes failed because the Tories refused to vote for them. Cabinet ministers abstained despite the complete breakdown of responsibility. Most sensible Tory MPs ducked it under the cover of their brethren.

The same number of Tories backed all four options as Labour votes against all 4. The total was five each, that’s a wash.

[Snake Plissken]

Stolen from elsewhere.

So messing around with the overall numbers, there's some clear standout trends.

With three different ways to vote on each vote (including abstaining), and four votes, MPs had 3*3*3*3 voting combinations available to them - that's 81 combinations. Between them, they managed to vote for 41 of those.

By far the most common combination is MPs who voted no to everything. There were 229 of them, 213 Conservative, 10 DUP, 1 Independent (Kelvin Hopkins), 5 Labour (Graham Stringer, John Mann, Kate Hoey, Stephen Hepburn, Ronnie Campbell).

L

The next two most common options were MPs who voted yes to everything (89, of which 85 were Labour), and MPs who voted yes to everything except Cherry's motion (82, of which 79 were Labour).



45 MPs abstained on everything, though 11 of those were inevitable abstentions, since 7 are Sinn Féin and 4 are the speaker and deputy speakers. The balance of 34 break down as 3 SNP and 31 Conservatives, the bulk of which are cabinet members.



The idea that the SNP didn't vote for anything except their own motion isn't correct. 31 of their 35 MPs voted yes to both Boles' Customs Union + Single Market option and for the confirmatory referendum.

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

Talk now is no indicative votes tomorrow, and instead Cooper will move a bill for a longer extension* and requiring the government to come forward with a proposal on which to base the extension. Unless the Cabinet actually makes a different decision today, the inevitable next step is that the government say 'the deal is our proposal'. If they out it to a motion then it would be amendable so guess the next move would be the opposition getting its act together to attach customs union / 2.0 / confirmatory vote amendments to May's deal. Having said all that, Letwin is quoted as saying 90% chance now of leaving with no deal.

*edit it is reported as against No Deal, not for longer extension necessarily.

[DCI Harry Batt]

Except it obviously isn’t.

Agreed.

[DCI Harry Batt]

There needs to be a separate term for the Blue Labour/Spiked contingent of Lexiters (which is actually most Lexiters) and their fellow travellers like Lapavitsas.

Bluxiters?

I call them all LUKIP.

[Satchmo Distel]

LIKUDKIP

I don't think Cooper's bill will pass but even if it does May could simply put forward something she knows won't pass or won't be acceptable to the EU (such as a time limit backstop)

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

Sounds like May is making a move first anyway. Statement coming, initial rumours that it will be to announce she will seek a longer extension, to prepare for no deal exit.

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

.....and reportedly dozens of Tory MPs are intervening in the adjournment debate to stretch it out long enough for the government to lay a new motion tonight. There must be a more efficient way to do these things.

edit - if they were trying that, they've failed.

[Benjm]

Our Parliamentary procedure, and wider non-constitution, has only seemed plausible in the past because of underlying assumptions about the country being strong and, well, stable.

Now that any such notion has been scattered to the winds it stands revealed as the gimcrack Ruritanian nonsense that it really is.

[SouthdownRebel]

Ruritania phoned, they'd like a word. Something about a slanderous libel.

[Walt Flanagans Dog]

Not only has she kicked the can down the road again, she's booted it into Jeremy Corbyn's garden.