The Brexit Thread

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

A former work colleague, and fellow union activist, crystallised some of my thoughts on why our government is so rubbish at negotiations, with this post on the Facebooks this morning, which is worth sharing:

That's an interesting take on things. I'd take it a bit further though in that they haven't really negotiated with unions. They've just driven straight over them, using the full force of the law, and the police when needs be. It's not that they don't have any experience of negotiating from a position of weakness, they don't have any experience or tradition of negotiating at all. And to compound the matter, they have appointed their three least experienced, and capable ministers to try and make it up as they go along. They don't seem to understand that The EU has certain positions, and it's up to the UK to decide what they want. I think that the UK strategy can be best summed up as not saying what you want in the hope that the other side will just give you whatever you want. That's a really bad approach to take with the EU.

Sitting across the table from them are a group of people who spend all day, every day negotiating compromises between 28 different european states, and striking complicated international trade deals. They're like a shoddy three card trick merchant trying to fool Merlin.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Remember when they were pretending they had great "cards" they weren't showing?

[Tubby Isaacs]

There's no situation so bad that it can't be made worse by a silly speech at the Conservative Party Conference. As we know from last year, when May sent the pound diving. She's going to try and repeat the trick this year.

https://www.ft.com/content/266e996a-...5-873e61754ec6

Theresa May, UK prime minister, is planning to use a major speech in Europe this month to set out her proposals for a “no cliff-edge” Brexit transition deal, with ministers saying any interim agreement must be “as close as possible” to current relations.

While that message will resonate well with business and Brussels, Mrs May will deliver a much tougher missive to the Conservative party conference a few days later, promising Eurosceptics that her end goal is still to deliver a “clean” Brexit.

[Lang Spoon]

Is it Blackpool has the pleasure of hosting Racist pensioners sociopaths laffer curve weirdos the Forces of Darkness and Michelle Mone this year? Once got kicked out of our room to go to some horrible self catering pit back in the 80s cos Maggie's gang were in town. Cunts.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Ho ho ho, he's such a Lege.

In a potentially provocative move, he also explained to reporters before a meeting with his EU counterparts in Tallinn, Estonia, that the EU had a legal duty to discuss trade relations. “Article 50 makes it very clear that the discussion about the exit for a country must be taken in the context of a discussion of the future arrangements, and that’s what we are going to do,” Johnson said.

This is such a strong legal argument that nobody noticed it till today.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Is it Blackpool has the pleasure of hosting Racist pensioners sociopaths laffer curve weirdos the Forces of Darkness and Michelle Mone this year? Once got kicked out of our room to go to some horrible self catering pit back in the 80s cos Maggie's gang were in town. Cunts.

It's Manchester, a real hotbed of Toryism. Think they have 2 seats out of 27 in Greater Manchester at the moment. They might have none before too long, with reliable Altrincham and Sale West trending against them with "Cold Feet" style middle class liberals, and the very marginal Bolton West.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Oh hang on. They have Cheadle and Hazel Grove too.

[Snake Plissken]

Ho ho ho, he's such a Lege.
This is such a strong legal argument that nobody noticed it till today.

I'd hardly call it very clear.

Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3)[5] of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council [of the European Union], acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

[Lang Spoon]

Hang on, didn't the British in the persona of David Davis agree to this timetable of negotiations? Early summer? It's hard to know what's real and what's a fever dream.

[Tubby Isaacs]

He did. He rightly surmised that "take account of" doesn't mean much.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Well it just seems to say that the concluded agreement will take account of the future arrangements. That doesn't say anything about when you should discuss each little part. The problem that the EU has is that the only thing it knows about the UK's position is that they want out of the ECJ and FOM, and that they want to leave the single market and the customs union, to discuss their own trade deals. (Everything else is extraordinarily hazy)

The thing is that if you want to leave the single market and the customs union, there simply isn't going to be a future trading relationship to speak of. The UK is taking the Belarus option.

[Lang Spoon]

I'm feart they're playing for no deal. Dreams of gated London Dubai/Singapore lovely countryside Ruritania, workfare for all beyond the rim.

[Toby Gymshorts]

Of course they're playing for no deal. Pacifying the fucking headbangers who think we can just tell the EU to fuck off and that's that.

[Snake Plissken]

Pretty much been an open secret since the spring. German elections out of the way, we walk away citing intransigence from the EU.

Liam Fox the other day complained that he had trade deals that he couldn't sign because he didn't have enough negotiators available. Not a single one of the well educated press pack managed to ask the question "If the deal is ready to sign... why do you need negotiators?"

[Lang Spoon]

It's especially mad to combine Imperial Nostalgia with self-sufficient autarchy bollocks. Smells a bit.. Mosley.

[Toby Gymshorts]

Smells a bit Farage. Old Spice, Nationalism, and a heaping helping of bullshit.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Heavyweight legal genius, Charlie Elphick, has published a paper with a lawyer that says we don't owe anything to the EU.

It's non stop legal manna for Brexit. Johnson will be claiming Cicero appeared to him in a dream next.

[Lang Spoon]

Who the fuck would sign a trade deal on favorable terms with a bunch of fannies that just shat all over their last big obligation. If they pay no divorce bill they will be a junk rating IMF circling floundering mess. Oh joy. It's arms deals to every bastard with hard currency and nowt else but being smiling supplicants of the Heritage Service industry. The collapsing currency makes U.K. The perfect place to holiday! Soon prostitution will once more become a Great British job, with all the foreign s gone and thousands desperate and on their absolute uppers.

If Hammond and Soubry et al end up going along with it all they are as impressively passionately having unshakeable convictions as Vince Cable.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The government has plenty of law officers, you'd think. They've doubtless already had the "killer" Article 50 quote run by them, and they laughed.

Boris and Charlie Elphick reckon they can do a better job.

[Tubby Isaacs]

How long can a "no deal" walk out last? The pound'll be fucked even more, and parties don't come back from big devaluations.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The FT have something embargoed for the front page tmrw. To be revealed at midnight, apparently.

It might not even be the top story, so don't get too excited.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Never mind, the master negotiator backs our approach.

Politics BBC Radio 4 @r4politics 6h
Varoufakis tells @tnewtondunn UK should back out of Brexit talks now or bypass Barnier.

There speaks a man with a book to sell.

In trmw's show, the Sheriff from Blazing Saddles backs the UK's strategy.

[Satchmo Distel]

Farage probably puts Old Spice on his pubes.

[Lang Spoon]

Fuck sake, first the love for Pale Rider Assange, now this bollocks. That makes him more an eejit than Paul Mason now, by my reckoning. Fucking hell, I used to have some respect for Varoufakis, would you take me by the hand (one for the Steely Dan fans)

[Tubby Isaacs]

"Bypass Barnier" is pure Farage. He didn't exactly do very well going "straight to Merkel", did he?