The Brexit Thread

[Snake Plissken]

I thought that we were edging towards an approval of May's deal. I'm honestly not sure where we are now. I didn't think No Deal would be possible. I still don't. But not with quite the same degree of confidence.

thanks to May's astonishing foresight and tactical acumen, No Deal is the default. She's completely at the mercy of the EU now. I know Tusk etc will agree to an extension, I'm worried about one of the 27 deciding that this is the time to extract a heavy price for it.

As for stopping the Brexiteer scum from moaning and bitching... you won't. That is what they want. They - aside from a few real headbangers - don't actually want to leave. It's too lucrative and fun to just throw grenades from the sidelines. Hence Nigel setting up his party to keep him on the MEP gravy train.

[Patrick Thistle]

10 days to go folks.

I feel stressed and upset by it all. Some gomph was on the radio just now talking about the "danger that Brexit may not happen at all!" as if his mum had threatened to cancel Christmas on him.

I am so fucking sick of Leave fanatics.

[Nefertiti2]

good thread by Andrew Gwynne MP

https://twitter.com/GwynneMP/status/1107741970141798401

[Flynnie]

In terms of Parliamentary procedure, quite possibly. As far as a large chunk of the general public will be concerned, inconsistent bollocks, facilitated by a Remainer Speaker and supported by a Remainer House of Commons.

I don't know if there will be a Parliamentary vote on a second referendum and I doubt if it would pass. My point is that if both happened it would be presented as a stitch-up by Leave, a narrative which would, I suspect, gain considerable traction in the country.

I thought that we were edging towards an approval of May's deal. I'm honestly not sure where we are now. I didn't think No Deal would be possible. I still don't. But not with quite the same degree of confidence.

In all seriousness, who gives a fuck what the angry gammon hordes think? Let's be clear who thinks this, it's not open-minded people on the street, it's the hard Brexit crowd.

[Nocturnal Submission]

The point of giving a fuck about the "angry gammon hoards" is that if there is a second referendum they'll have a vote and, for Remainers, it would be a really, really good idea if they weren't given another compelling reason not to change their vote.

It's a dreadfully poor strategic decision to ignore a large chunk of the electorate in the way that you dismissed those above because if something really pisses off the hardcore, it probably irritates the more moderate souls and gives the undecided pause for thought.

[Moonlight Shadow]

The angry gammon hordes are lost for ever to reason, a bit like Trump base. Not sure what can be done other than try to cut them off the moderate/undecided crowd by highlighting how "gone" they are.

[Flynnie]

The point of giving a fuck about the "angry gammon hoards" is that if there is a second referendum they'll have a vote and, for Remainers, it would be a really, really good idea if they weren't given another compelling reason not to change their vote.

It's a dreadfully poor strategic decision to ignore a large chunk of the electorate in the way that you dismissed those above because if something really pisses off the hardcore, it probably irritates the more moderate souls and gives the undecided pause for thought.

No one who cares or even understands what Bercow did and is mad about it was ever a Remainer at any point. They're the UK equivalent of Trumpers.

[Nocturnal Submission]

OK, well we'll have to agree to disagree then, because when I consider a second referendum I wonder what arguments both sides will employ and Leave pushing "the politicians in London have ignored your vote and fixed the Parliamentary process" would, I reckon, be quite persuasive and not just to die-hard Leavers. Complex procedural motions can easily be simplified and distilled for broadcasts and leaflets.

Have you heard of the Winchester by-election in 1997? The Liberals won the seat from the Conservatives by 2 votes at the General Election of that year. Because of issues surrounding the accuracy of the vote an electoral petition was heard. As Wiki says: "The High Court held that 54 votes declared void for want of the Official Mark would have changed the result if counted. The court could not be sure they were not the product of a mistake, therefore deemed that the result was uncertain. They allowed the petition and declared the election void."

Reasonable enough. Looks like the local electoral officer might have stuffed up. Let's just do it properly again.

In the by-election the Liberals won by 21,556.

People hate being asked to vote again and usually punish the original loser. If Remain doesn't want to lose a second referendum it would do well to consider the optics of the Parliamentary theatre and refrain from arrogantly dismissing their opponents, which is a crappy tactic that tends to rebound on them.

[Ginger Yellow]

UKIP really endearing themselves to Londoners today by driving one of those billboard vans around with music blaring at full volume from a loudspeaker.

[Ginger Yellow]

I lived in Winchester at the time. I'm pretty sure the reason the swing was so big was relatively little to do with being asked to vote again and mostly to do with what a complete arsehole the Tory (Gerry "fuck the homeless" Malone) was about it.

[Diable Rouge]

http://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1107988238118121472

[Toby Gymshorts]

UKIP really endearing themselves to Londoners today by driving one of those billboard vans around with music blaring at full volume from a loudspeaker.

Is that why I could hear "I Want To Break Free" earlier? Wish I'd known, I'd have gone out and slashed the fucking tyres.

[Moonlight Shadow]

OK, well we'll have to agree to disagree then, because when I consider a second referendum I wonder what arguments both sides will employ and Leave pushing "the politicians in London have ignored your vote and fixed the Parliamentary process" would, I reckon, be quite persuasive and not just to die-hard Leavers. Complex procedural motions can easily be simplified and distilled for broadcasts and leaflets.

Have you heard of the Winchester by-election in 1997? The Liberals won the seat from the Conservatives by 2 votes at the General Election of that year. Because of issues surrounding the accuracy of the vote an electoral petition was heard. As Wiki says: "The High Court held that 54 votes declared void for want of the Official Mark would have changed the result if counted. The court could not be sure they were not the product of a mistake, therefore deemed that the result was uncertain. They allowed the petition and declared the election void."

Reasonable enough. Looks like the local electoral officer might have stuffed up. Let's just do it properly again.

In the by-election the Liberals won by 21,556.

People hate being asked to vote again and usually punish the original loser. If Remain doesn't want to lose a second referendum it would do well to consider the optics of the Parliamentary theatre and refrain from arrogantly dismissing their opponents, which is a crappy tactic that tends to rebound on them.

You describe something hopeless, changing the mind of people who simply are not willing to listen to any argument, for whom any change of mind is a result of being derided by elites, for who any counter-argument is a plot by London...

If the UK in a second referendum votes by a higher margin to leave without a deal, then so be it...I'm done wasting my time trying to convince morons, if they want it so bad, they can have it...The Remain demographics are probably in a far better economical shape to cope with the consequences as it happens...

[Nocturnal Submission]

You describe something hopeless, changing the mind of people who simply are not willing to listen to any argument, for whom any change of mind is a result of being derided by elites, for who any counter-argument is a plot by London...

If the UK in a second referendum votes by a higher margin to leave without a deal, then so be it...I'm done wasting my time trying to convince morons, if they want it so bad, they can have it...The Remain demographics are probably in a far better economical shape to cope with the consequences as it happens...

But you see I think that's wrong. I reckon that it's possible to convince almost everyone to alter an opinion if your argument in strong, persuasive but delivered reasonably and not with aggression and condescension.

[Nefertiti2]

this feels very Orbán like- and completely without precedent in my experience . The State broadcaster harrassing an elected official who has taken a decision unfavourable to the Government

https://twitter.com/Ian_Fraser/status/1107950488526430208

[Amor de Cosmos]

But you see I think that's wrong. I reckon that it's possible to convince almost everyone to alter an opinion if your argument in strong, persuasive but delivered reasonably and not with aggression and condescension.

I really, really wish you were right but evidence doesn't show that to be the case. Overwhelmingly such views are based not on facts but rather on emotional prejudice which no amount of reasoning will shift, at least when presented directly.

[Ginger Yellow]

FT says Grayling may resign if there's a long extension. So maybe some good will come of Brexit.

[Moonlight Shadow]

I really, really wish you were right but evidence doesn't show that to be the case. Overwhelmingly such views are based not on facts but rather on emotional prejudice which no amount of reasoning will shift, at least when presented directly.

For clarity, i also wish you were right NS, i am not being obnoxious, just hopeless....

[Duncan Gardner]

Obviously not a direct parallel, but basically nobody in DUP Land ever moves to SF nor vice versa. True across all groups by age, education, sexuality/ gender etc etc

[Diable Rouge]

Obviously not a direct parallel, but basically nobody in DUP Land ever moves to SF nor vice versa. True across all groups by age, education, sexuality/ gender etc etc

True, but that's down to ethnic/tribal voting, rather than philosophically based.

[Ginger Yellow]

The evidence suggests it largely applies across the board. Reasoned argument doesn't win people over, usually.

[Nocturnal Submission]

I rather feel that it's important, for the sake of society and the triumph of good ideas, that we persevere with sweet reason.

[Etienne]

It's absolutely worth trying to persevere putting forth reasonable arguments as they may convince people who aren't already wedded to leave. But as we know, providing facts that counter someone's existing beliefs actually reinforces their position. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2...ange-our-minds

[Nocturnal Submission]

It's absolutely worth trying to persevere putting forth reasonable arguments as they may convince people who aren't already wedded to leave. But as we know, providing facts that counter someone's existing beliefs actually reinforces their position. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2...ange-our-minds

Thanks for that, Etienne. Very interesting.

The studies were fascinating but I'm not sure that they suggest that an individual, who has formed a view on an issue from a limited understanding of the subject or an incomplete or inaccurate set of assertions, wouldn't change their mind when presented with a fuller, corrective alternative. The studies are specific and allowed limited time for reflection and re-analysis. Neither do they allow for emotional change and development.

It's a bit of a cheap shot, but there was a young Tory politician who was a member of the Monday Club who stood for an election on a programme of "assisted repatriation" of immigrants. He's now the Speaker of the House of Commons. Peoples views do evolve. Not everyone's but sometime enough to make a difference.

[Patrick Thistle]

People won't even shift their views if you tell them cancer patients will die sooner and children with diabetes could die too. They can't back down on any of their points. They just dismiss it as project fear.

There's no rationality.