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    It sort of feels like we're entering the end-game. A couple more Northern Labour MPs (Smeeth and Peacock) have resigned their Opposition posts and look to be readying themselves to back May's deal when it next returns to the House. Geoffrey Cox has been working with the DUP in an attempt to bring them round. If that happens the few dozen Labour MPs should cancel out the ERG ultras like Baker and Chope.

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      Originally posted by Lang Spoon View Post
      May's deal passing isn't the worst. Nothing is then off the table re Soft Brexit, only revoking Article 50.
      Mind, we could very well end up with something as close to No Deal as it gets, especially when the Tories win the next GE with a nutter as PM...which is why the ERG worm will turn I think...

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        I kinda hope that a full on ERG rat is head of the Tories next, could possibly wipe out the Tories in Scotland again (excepting the worst of the People of the Fish maybes).

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          Cox is actually supporting the Vienna Convention argument in writing?

          He is going to have lost any reputation he had left.

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            1922 secretary on Five Live this evening said that his ERG colleagues are realising that they hate the thought of being trapped in the EU more than they hate the thought of being trapped in the backstop and increasingly will support the WA with, he reckoned, only about 15 hardcore ERGers who won't budge (Mogg, Redwood etc).

            Arlene was also saying something about positions moving as you get closer to the deadline and see the whites of people's eyes. May'll get it through.

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              Originally posted by ursus arctos View Post
              Cox is actually supporting the Vienna Convention argument in writing?

              He is going to have lost any reputation he had left.
              Has Cox some nasty Kompromat the whips are threatening to make public? Otherwise makes no sense at all after his opinion earlier in the week.

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                Mebbe he's lost his mind.

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                  Or mebbes it's the party over country/rule of law thing Tories are so fond of.

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                    I'd go with that, Spoony. He's been told to create some bullshit fig leaf - anything at all - that the Ergers and Duppers can use. Even if they all know it's dogshit nonsense that doesn't change what was true yesterday, it gives them theoretical cover.

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                      Originally posted by Lang Spoon View Post
                      I kinda hope that a full on ERG rat is head of the Tories next, could possibly wipe out the Tories in Scotland again (excepting the worst of the People of the Fish maybes).
                      Just checked Paddy Power. Johnson the favourite followed by Gove and then Raab!

                      I don't think it will be any of the above. Javid or Hunt would be my guess, but that might require some tactical voting by MPs before the members get the final say.

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                        Gove.

                        I say that with an incredibly bad tipsters record.

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                          Gove is the smartest, i think.

                          theyr'e all vile

                          this being misreported by several people tonight as the other way round.

                          https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1106303012090204160

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                            Originally posted by Kevin S View Post
                            Arlene was also saying something about positions moving as you get closer to the deadline and see the whites of people's eyes. May'll get it through.
                            you could also read that as the foolish certainty the EU will jump first.

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                              If all this is postponed to the summer it will mean the rioting can take place in more hours of daylight.

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                                Where exactly is supposed to Rise Up if there is a Brexit Betrayal but? I can imagine bollocks in Essex, and I'm sure Haircut Harris has fantasies of same from Sunderland to Burnley, but not sure fuck all will happen at all. Tommy types en masse gathering in London from all over mibees, with tacit Rozzer support if there is any leftie counter action.

                                cant really see the true Brexit Heartland of Home Counties England Rising Up outside the ballot box.
                                Last edited by Lang Spoon; 15-03-2019, 02:25.

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                                  Gina Miller - who admitted a while back that she only took that EU case to court initially to stop Corbyn, if he ever got power - says that the only time to go for a second referendum is when all other avenues are closed, thus agreeing with Labour's strategy. Some of those FBPE heads must be exploding.

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                                    There was some more talk last night around the Attorney General's advice on whether the Vienna Convention would be a route for unilaterally ending the backstop, on the grounds that there may be 'exceptional circumstances' which couldn't have been foreseen at the time of the agreement being made. There is a good thread on Twitter about this (can't link) which describes how Hungary tried this, to get out of an international agreement to build a dam. After signing the Warsaw Pact collapsed, the USSR (who were co-funding it) disbanded, and the counterparty (Czechoslovakia) ceased to exist, and they still couldn't prove exceptional circumstances and remained on the hook for their share.

                                    But anyway the DUP are getting paid off in talks with the Government on backing the deal, so it's only a matter of time before Ulster Says Yo.

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                                      Here's the thread, which is spot on.

                                      As always, click through to read the whole thing.

                                      https://twitter.com/usualcaveat/status/1106125976809947136

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                                        Having just covered a case about the frustration of a (lease) contract, it's interesting to note how similar the language is to the case law on frustration.
                                        Frustration occurs whenever the law recognises that without default of either party a contractual obligation has become incapable of being performed because the circumstances in which performance is called for would render it a thing radically different from that which was undertaken by the contract.
                                        As a footnote, no lease has ever been found to be frustrated in English law. Which should give you an idea of the threshold for Article 62.
                                        Last edited by Ginger Yellow; 15-03-2019, 13:38.

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                                          Cox' written advice on this is the legal equivalent of "Brexit means Brexit". I've lost all respect for him.

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                                            I'm now reading references to "rolling cliff edges". Is this a new metaphor or something used in finance circles? I doubt I'm the only one bemused by all this terminology, and I'm not that stupid.

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                                              Also, and this is very reminiscent of the initial backstop talks, it's not the best start to negotiations on a long term relationship to declare that you have the right to unilaterally walk away from treaty obligations.

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                                                I thought that "rolling cliff edges" was meant to be a joke

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                                                  Maybe. But I'm none too sure.

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                                                    Now whoever the Brexit Secretary is these days has said he'll resign if the deal gets voted down and May applies for a longer extension.

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