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    Originally posted by The Awesome Berbaslug!!! View Post
    Well what is the reality based alternative other than simply voting for the withdrawal agreement. There is going to come a point in the next couple of weeks where the UK is going to have to shit or get off the pot. it is either going to have to a) embrace Hard Brexit and embark on a humiliating and destructive economic war. B) Accept Theresa May's deal or c) accept that parliament isn't going to be able to resolve this situation and put the matter to the people, in a less embarrassingly open ended referendum.

    If Labour don't change their position, that third option isn't even going to be on the table. That safe option of kicking to touch isn't going to be there any more.
    Your first-paragraph analysis is correct. That's where we're heading. That's where we've been heading since conference. That's part of the strategy, that Labour pivot to c) - but it can only happen in the next few weeks, it couldn't have happened before.

    Comment


      There has to be a vote to extend article 50 before c) can happen and I don't think such a vote can happen unless it's forced. May won't volunteer it, obviously.

      The vote also has to happen with sufficient time left for the 27 to all agree to it. One dissenting member and it's off the table.

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        Yeah, but in that case the government can revoke unilaterally. Ultimately it depends on whether May genuinely is willing to go "no deal". I don't think she is, but I'm far from comfortable in that. If she is, then it's a question of whether the sane Tories blink and unseat her (through supporting a VONC) or whether the Labour sensibles blink and vote for her deal.

        Comment


          Originally posted by Etienne View Post
          Yeah, but in that case the government can revoke unilaterally. Ultimately it depends on whether May genuinely is willing to go "no deal". I don't think she is, but I'm far from comfortable in that. If she is, then it's a question of whether the sane Tories blink and unseat her (through supporting a VONC) or whether the Labour sensibles blink and vote for her deal.
          I am convinced she is willing to go "No deal". She is stubborn and single-minded beyond all rationality and she sees delivering on the referendum result as her entire existence. We've seen time and time again for the past half-decade that she is willing to ignore reality and plough onwards (the post-election going to Buckingham Palace and straight out lying to the monarch and the subsequent fallout has be much underreported) as it what she thought would happen actually happened. She's more determined than even the ERG. I'm not sure what kind of -path she is, but she is it.

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            I'm not sure Labour has established enough of a credible and distinct position to validate voting May's deal down again, as I've said. Because the Prime Minister looks prime ministerial, it's hard for the opposition to persuade people they'd get a better deal. Do they want to be voting it down with Redwood, Johnson and Rees Mogg? I think they have to be extremely careful.

            But maybe that's what Lavery's People want, I don't know.

            Comment


              Tubbs, your determination to pin this entire thing on Labour is remarkable.

              And BTW, Theresa May couldn't look Prime Ministerial if she spent six weeks on training course called "How to look Prime Ministerial for people who absolutely couldn't look Prime Ministerial".

              Comment


                I don't follow your last post there Tubbs, either.

                Comment


                  well you can only try. Some will understand, and go along with you, particularly if you point out that they're blaming the EU for the actions of the tories,
                  Mate, I think you've massively underestimated just how badly collective insanity has taken hold over here. It doesn't matter what facts are deployed. It's way beyond that. And it's genuinely terrifying. Positions are that entrenched that if you told a die hard Brexiter that your jeans are blue they'd argue they were pink. While looking at your blue jeans.
                  This isn't going to end well whatever happens. However the constant banging on about Labour is infuriating, because they have no power or control over this. And it diverts attention away from where the real problem is.

                  Comment


                    I don’t think any of this is being pinned on Labour. I think Labour supporters expect Labour to protect them from no deal. Labour supporters don’t expect anything from the Tories.

                    Comment


                      https://twitter.com/IanLaveryMP/status/1088780768971816965

                      https://twitter.com/RidgeOnSunday/status/1089461082752729088

                      I don't think Etienne's point (that some were playing up a referendum, some weren't) is tenable any more. I think it's being taken off the table.
                      This is where we were in November.

                      https://www.channel4.com/news/major-...towards-remain

                      Biggest ever poll, by Survation, for Channel 4. 54% Remain, with swathes of "heartlands" gone Remain, including Wansbeck by the look of it. Hardly anywhere can there be a majority of Labour voters supporting Leave, and in any case many of them could likely be run down by other policies, Not so much Remain and Reform the EU, as Remain and Reform the UK. Just to take the example of Wansbeck, why not say you'll reopen the railway from Ashington into Newcastle?

                      Comment


                        No, I don't think so. A second referendum is a bad idea, and will destroy faith in politics, Rayner and Lavery are both right (though the headline distorts what Lavery actually said). It's just that all the other ideas are worse. Both concede that it is possible. It's certainly not being taken off the table. That would be a colossally stupid move.

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                          Originally posted by Snake Plissken View Post
                          Tubbs, your determination to pin this entire thing on Labour is remarkable.

                          And BTW, Theresa May couldn't look Prime Ministerial if she spent six weeks on training course called "How to look Prime Ministerial for people who absolutely couldn't look Prime Ministerial".
                          She's got a comfortable lead on questions about being "best to negotiate Brexit" and "best prime minister"- which is hard not to, in her position, But the problem is she's got a deal, it exists. Labour doesn't have one, and it couldn't exist anyway. I really don't think that as things stand, Labour's got enough to vote the deal down. I mean, over what? Permanent customs union v temporary customs union that lasts until some non-existent technology turns up?

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by Etienne View Post
                            No, I don't think so. A second referendum is a bad idea, and will destroy faith in politics, Rayner and Lavery are both right (though the headline distorts what Lavery actually said). It's just that all the other ideas are worse. Both concede that it is possible. It's certainly not being taken off the table. That would be a colossally stupid move.
                            I quoted Lavery's tweet, not the headline.

                            And yeah, I take the point about problems with the second referendum, but if you're playing them up at this stage, that's because you don't want to hold one. I mean, the confidence vote failed and Lavery's still playing up a general election.

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by Lucy Waterman View Post
                              I don’t think any of this is being pinned on Labour. I think Labour supporters expect Labour to protect them from no deal. Labour supporters don’t expect anything from the Tories.
                              Yeah, exactly.

                              Comment


                                The people campaigning for a second referendum have done the following in the last few days.
                                • Trashed the Norway+ option which is the most sane Brexit
                                • Managed to get a grand total of 71 Labour MPs to support a second referendum
                                • Publically said hey would not support a Labour amendment for a second referendum
                                • Announced that they would have tabled their own amendment for a second referendum but won’t because Corbyn
                                So forgive me if I’m giving them short shrift for being either liars or utterly incompetent. But despite everyone’s efforts it isnt the Labour leadership who are fucking over those who want a second referendum.

                                Comment


                                  Originally posted by johnr View Post

                                  Your first-paragraph analysis is correct. That's where we're heading. That's where we've been heading since conference. That's part of the strategy, that Labour pivot to c) - but it can only happen in the next few weeks, it couldn't have happened before.
                                  The Vote on Theresa May's deal happened on january 14th. The No Confidence Vote was defeated on the 16th. That was nearly a fucking fortnight ago. What are they fucking waiting for?

                                  Comment


                                    Originally posted by Snake Plissken View Post
                                    The people campaigning for a second referendum have done the following in the last few days.
                                    • Trashed the Norway+ option which is the most sane Brexit
                                    • Managed to get a grand total of 71 Labour MPs to support a second referendum
                                    • Publically said hey would not support a Labour amendment for a second referendum
                                    • Announced that they would have tabled their own amendment for a second referendum but won’t because Corbyn
                                    So forgive me if I’m giving them short shrift for being either liars or utterly incompetent. But despite everyone’s efforts it isnt the Labour leadership who are fucking over those who want a second referendum.

                                    I used to support Norway, but I changed my mind because I can't see it's politically viable. It's paying in, no formal say, and same EU immigration policy as now. You have to "trash" Norway like you trash all the Leave options because they're worse than now, and there's no turning back. Once you accept Leave, you're headed for an FTA, which will be very damaging.

                                    By the way, the Labour leadership don't support Norway, the most sane Brexit, either. And anyway, there's no problem voting for the Withdrawal Act if you want Norway. Again, I can't see what Labour's got that means it can vote down the withdrawal act.

                                    700,000 people on the streets for a second referendum. Corbyn can hold a rally for his policy and see how many turn up. I defy anybody to put together a speech in support of it, without tangents about "the Real Issues".. You can take or leave the second referendum campaigners, but you can't have it both ways. If they're idiot incompetents, then you have to allow that there's likely a lot of suppressed support for Remain that a much bigger campaign could mobilize, right? Look at those Remain marginals. Go into the next election, able to call every tax rise or spending cut a Tory Brexit Tax etc.


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                                      Don't tell him, Pike.

                                      https://twitter.com/montie/status/1089500126333337600

                                      Comment


                                        Originally posted by Tubby Isaacs View Post
                                        I used to support Norway, but I changed my mind because I can't see it's politically viable. It's paying in, no formal say, and same EU immigration policy as now. You have to "trash" Norway like you trash all the Leave options because they're worse than now, and there's no turning back. Once you accept Leave, you're headed for an FTA, which will be very damaging.
                                        It was more that the moment the concept of a second referendum could possibly have got some real traction and they could have plausibly put Norway+ as an option on their hereto mythical ballot paper in order to avoid the (very genuine) accusations that they are just wanting to either scrap Brexit or get the "right" result this time, than they launched an attack on one of the options that they could have thrown as a sop to those who are very uncomfortable with ignoring the result of the first one.

                                        By the way, the Labour leadership don't support Norway, the most sane Brexit, either. And anyway, there's no problem voting for the Withdrawal Act if you want Norway. Again, I can't see what Labour's got that means it can vote down the withdrawal act.
                                        It is incredibly easy to see why Labour are voting down the Withdrawal Act. Unfortunately, to be able to see it means abandoning every position you've had since Corbyn was elected leader and going "Hang on, maybe he does know what he's doing". It's fairly simple - it's not Labours fight, they don't actually want to Leave at all and are a) trapped by a stupid bloody referendum called by a ham-faced cunt who didn't have a clue what he was doing b) being in opposition and c) still fighting off people who claim to be on their own side despite having been proved consistently wrong on everything for the past decade.

                                        700,000 people on the streets for a second referendum.
                                        No. Let's have a bit of honesty here. The 700,000 were on the streets for Remain. The second referendum is about reversing the 2016 vote and ending the insanity that is Brexit. I am all for Remain, by any means possible up to and including Royal Decree. The arguments for a second referendum can be fairly strong, both morally and politically. The problem I have with the second referendum people is that they are advocating it for all the wrong reasons and therefore making a complete bloody pigs ear of it. Everything that is wrong with the people campaigning for the second referendum can be summed up in the 24 hours when they said they wouldn't vote for a Labour amendment wanting one and the next day criticising Labour for not supporting their proposed amendment for one.

                                        Comment


                                          Right, so those 700,000 Remainers wouldn't bit your hand off for a referendum? How many of them were "parliament just scraps Brexit or we leave anyway" diehards? Honestly?

                                          And I explained. A second referendum (with Remain) is completely antithetical to Norway. Still, funny how people we don't like always do something at "just the moment when" something good could have happened, isn't it? See also "Labour would have trail blazed on Brexit but the sensibles tried a coup". Hard to see how Norway would have got traction, with Labour not supporting it. And Norway, let's remember, isn't very good. The UK's very unsual in how much it relies on a small number of professional services jobs, and without a UK say, the EU can tie those in knots. Had Norway been the explicit policy of Leave, it would have lost by a mile.So I don't think it works as a "compromise".

                                          Sorry it isn't easy to understand. Apart from making the Tories own the mess, why are they voting down the Withdrawal Agreement? What's the actual policy call here that's making them do that? What's their policy that could work? It's pretty rum to attack another side for having bad tactics when you've not even got a proper policy.

                                          And again, you're not being asked to approve of all the campaigners for a second referendum. If you don't like those ones, there's lots more, including several large trade unions. I can't prove this, but I think a few more would go with the leadership if they supported one. Even as things stand, the RCN and BMA want a second referendum, which would be a huge asset.




                                          Last edited by Tubby Isaacs; 27-01-2019, 17:35.

                                          Comment


                                            Those 700,000 don't want a second referendum in order to get a reinforcement for Leave (of any description). They are trying to overturn a democratic vote with another democratic vote. Now, as I've constantly pointed out, if that was a clear way to get through this mess I would be right behind it. But the people who actually have the ability to try and get a second referendum have continually failed to do so in the most inept fashion and in such a way as to be actively damaging to their professed cause. Why is it Labour get the flack for not forcing a second referendum when Wollaston, Soubry and Vince fucking Cable say they won't support it while - at the very same fucking time - saying "they don't want to play political games"? Why is it the biggest voices for a second referendum spend last week trashing one of the best options we could have had that wasn't all out Remain?

                                            And to repeat the point again - if Labour had come out full on Remain 18 months ago then right now we would be full on preparing to be out of the EU and waving goodbye to worker rights, environmental and health protections and the NHS.

                                            I'll say it again. I think that Labour are voting down the Withdrawal Agreement because they don't want to actually Leave and are trying to force a GE under which they would campaign on a platform that is effectively "we will Leave when a deal is ready and everybody is happy" while drop-kicking the can so far down the road that Nigel Farage et al will have rotted to death in jail. The other reasons include not emboldening a Prime Minister who wants to deport all every foreigner she can get in the back of her "Go Home" vans while scrapping every workers protection she can get her scrawny mitts on. Why on earth would anyone argue for a Labour Party to allow that?

                                            Comment


                                              What does that mean: "Have the ability to try and get a second referendum"? I don't actually buy that people are thinking "Blair at Davos, I'll have the opposite of what he's having!" In any case, it doesn't have to be "Blair at Davos". It could be Jeremy Corbyn standing in a hospital, or Len McCluskey at Airbus, Ian Lavery at Nissan or Angie Rayner in a science lab. Join the dots for people. You want high quality free university? Well, Brexit shits all over the UK's reputation in universities.

                                              I don't think a general election or an article 50 extension for can kicking are dead certs. That's if anybody can agree on how long to extend for- I see Cooper said 9 months and Labour 3 I don't know who's right.

                                              And to repeat the point again - if Labour had come out full on Remain 18 months ago then right now we would be full on preparing to be out of the EU and waving goodbye to worker rights, environmental and health protections and the NHS.
                                              How? Was there going to be another election? I think Corbyn had to be careful with public opinion and opportunistic internal opponents but that time's surely long past.

                                              Talking of the NHS, what's to stop the EU offering it up in a trade deal for the Customs Union we're committing ourselves to, with no realistic chance of a say?

                                              Labour's got to be able to explain why it's voting the WA down. Not emboldening May doesn't cut it.







                                              Comment


                                                What does the EU offering up the NHS mean?

                                                Comment


                                                  In a trade deal with (most likely) the US. If the UK has no formal say in the Customs Union, isn't that a danger?

                                                  Corbyn was concerned enough about TTIP in 2016 to say he'd veto it.

                                                  Comment


                                                    I really don't follow, sorry.

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