The Brexit Thread

[Ginger Yellow]

I'll say this for it. It's by far the most realistic of the papers they've put out there so far. There's still the hard line about having the rights of EU citizens living in the UK being enforced solely through the UK courts, but I'm not surprised by that and frankly I can see the EU going for it in the end.

[Tubby Isaacs]

So not very far from Corbyn's position then.

Corbyn is no EEA or Customs Union at the moment, but to be much more sensible about EU citizens rights and not make a fuss about the ECJ. The atmosphere of the talks would be much better with Corbyn in charge, but there'd still be the freedom of movement problem. Not that he has any problem with it himself, so he might be able to shift. The problem is Kippers on his backbenches representing places with hardly any EU immigrants anyway. I'm sure there's a tendency in his inner circle that want freedom to hand out state aid, but he himself hasn't made much of it. So I am hopeful.

[Tubby Isaacs]

From the Telegraph before the election.

The pound is in for “a rough ride” if the Conservatives lose the general election, currency traders and analysts believe, after a number of strong polls for Labour sent the currency into a tumble late last week.

Sterling could fall by another 5pc on a Labour victory, forcing the currency down to $1.20 against the dollar. The pound has not been below this level for a prolonged period at any time since the 1980s.

Against the euro the pound could fall to as low as €1.08 to $1.09, a level not seen since the depths of the financial crisis.

It's €1.08 now.

[Tubby Isaacs]

[Gerontophile]

The Wing Commander has a few words about the end of a bell.

I wish they would allow comments. There would be carnage.

[Tubby Isaacs]

This is good, from the Touchstone blog the TUC do. Note the fallen pound doing nothing obvious for exports, and government consumption propping up growth.

[Snake Plissken]

So, it seems that the Home Office over-estimated the number of students overstaying their visas by a mere TWO THOUSAND PERCENT. It seems that instead of 100,000 students staying behind, only 4,600 did.

Amber Rudd also announced a study on the economic effects of foreign students in general. You know, a mere seven years after introducing policies to get rid of them.

Jesus fucking Christ!

[Wouter D]

This is good, from the Touchstone blog the TUC do. Note the fallen pound doing nothing obvious for exports, and government consumption propping up growth.

What is on the y-axis?

[Tubby Isaacs]

What is on the y-axis?

It's GDP growth percentage.

[Tubby Isaacs]

So, it seems that the Home Office over-estimated the number of students overstaying their visas by a mere TWO THOUSAND PERCENT. It seems that instead of 100,000 students staying behind, only 4,600 did.

Amber Rudd also announced a study on the economic effects of foreign students in general. You know, a mere seven years after introducing policies to get rid of them.

Jesus fucking Christ!

Rudd isn't stupid, and was the best Tory Remainer in the referendum. She made a fool of herself by embracing May-ism first up, but I get the feeling she's now playing a longish game with these studies. They're not likely to make Hard Brexit look good.

It's fascinating chess, just a shame it's with people rather than chess pieces.

[Benjm]

The whole mess looks more like Mousetrap than chess so far; interminable, Heath Robinson-esque process to set up, followed by disappointment and regret at time wasted.

[Lang Spoon]

Doesn't say much for the unimpeachable OBR this affair. Did political pressure or just a cock-up lead to the wild over inflation of these dastardly foreign students staying on illegally?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Doesn't say much for the unimpeachable OBR this affair. Did political pressure or just a cock-up lead to the wild over inflation of these dastardly foreign students staying on illegally?

Think it was the ONS, in fairness. They've been around longer, with operational independence, so it is surprising.

[Lang Spoon]

In my very limited experience of such things over in Mexico, "operational independence" means the square root of fuck all if Ministers or influential backbenchers start demanding a wee massage to the stats or policy direction of organizations that ultimately depend on Govt funding. Seeing as the entire apparatus of the state here is a facsimile of Britland, I'd imagine it's the same over on Racist Island.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The ONS have been quite good at calling out Grant Shapps, IDS and others on complete bollocks. So I'd be surprised if they'd knocked out duff numbers out of ministerial interference. But it isn't very good.

The OBR maybe there's more of a worry of not being independent enough.

[Antepli Ejderha]

So, it seems that the Home Office over-estimated the number of students overstaying their visas by a mere TWO THOUSAND PERCENT. It seems that instead of 100,000 students staying behind, only 4,600 did.

Amber Rudd also announced a study on the economic effects of foreign students in general. You know, a mere seven years after introducing policies to get rid of them.

Jesus fucking Christ!

May lies again. Or misleads. Nope. Blatant lies when she was Home Secretary and knew the answers.

[Lang Spoon]

The ONS have been quite good at calling out Grant Shapps, IDS and others on complete bollocks. So I'd be surprised if they'd knocked out duff numbers out of ministerial interference. But it isn't very good.

The OBR maybe there's more of a worry of not being independent enough.

I'd guess the pressure came from May. As stone evil Home Sec, she had a lot more clout than Two-Face Schapps or the tragic joke that is The Quiet Man. There were Ministers you could piss all over, and Ministers you'd have to let piss on you. Before she became someone even Kuenssberg struggles to defend with a straight face, she had more clout than anyone else outside CamBourne.

[Ginger Yellow]

“That’s a sign that she was successful in closing down bogus colleges,” said one colleague, in a reference to Mrs May’s crackdown on sham universities. “In any event, she believes the public would feel they were being hoodwinked if we changed the definition now.”

That's because they were being hoodwinked you arsehole.

Also, not sure if this was known to the posters above other than Antepli or if it's new info, but just to be clear:

while the discrepancy may have been a revelation to most of Whitehall, the Home Office has been aware of it for some time. One former Downing Street adviser told the Financial Times that they had been briefed on provisional exit check data in late 2015 that showed a similarly small level of overstayers.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Yeah, this should be a big "What did she know? And when?" scandal. If answers come there none, petition Bercow for a recall of Parliament. He probably wouldn't, but he might have a bit of fun wading into the debate.

Spoony, IDS was a seriously important Minister. I think you're being unfair. Also, they slapped down Gove for "sliding down international league tables". I was pleasantly surprised Gove stopped saying it.

[Lang Spoon]

Important yes, but not exactly in the inner circle. Like Gove, I'd imagine Cam would have a quiet chuckle at IDS foolishness, especially if it distracted from his or Gideon's errors and monstrousness. Civil servants would have an inkling this was someone it was safe to belittle in the politest terms. I doubt many would have been brave enough to openly challenge May and the beardo/Weegie cabal around her.

[ad hoc]

This seems more coherent from Labour:

Labour makes dramatic shift on Brexit and single market

https://www.theguardian.com/global/2...y_to_clipboard

Though frankly I would still rather they fight positively on immigration than to make what seems to me to be a craven and unprincipled electoral calculation

[Snake Plissken]

I think that the plan is one step at a time. As the cracks appear in the Brexit fantasy, Labour step in with a dose of reality. There is no way this can be rowed back in one big go.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Much more constructive from Labour, but I wouldn't expect this offer to be accepted by the EU. As I understand it, freedom of movement still ends after 4 years, which would be considered a price worth paying by the sort of populist loons they're worried about.

As Snakey says, one step at a time.

[johnr]

I've been waiting for this shift. It's a bit of a long term masterstroke that's been coming for a while. And it ensures we'll win the next election, probably before Christmas.

[longeared]

The Grauniad website is leading with a pathetic article about Corbyn facing a "backlash" from northern MPs over his Brexit position. It quotes three MPs, comprising John Mann and two others who are so comfortable with their position they go unnamed. This is the sort of shit you'd expect from the Brexit press.