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    Something else worth reading on Brexit IMO

    It is received wisdom about referendums that ‘yes’ has an advantage over ‘no’. Alex Salmond didn’t get the wording he wanted for the 2014 Scottish Independence referendum – the Electoral Commission considered the question ‘Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?’ too . . .

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      Originally posted by Diable Rouge View Post
      Surely the DUP should be under "CON policy" for now, despite the discordance over the backstop ?
      They voted against the other night. They've been put under No Deal, but they've talked more like Soft Brexit too (ie the UK getting the same backstop as NI).

      Kowalski, it really shows up with large constituencies, doesn't it? I can see my Mum and Dad (North Herefordshire) are represented by one of those too.

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        So's my sister in Forest of Dean.

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          Does Tubby's map mean there's not a single MP in favour of just remaining in the EU without a second referendum?

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            I don't think there is one. Ken Clarke was but he's accepted Leave's happening and voted for May's deal.

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              The lying liars and the lying lies they tell

              (No. 23,476 in a series:


              Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson -


              https://www.theguardian.com/politics...campaign-video
              )

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                interesting things happening in DUP circles

                https://twitter.com/Kilsally/status/1086669471853568001

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                  In case people have taken NI stability for granted, today has seen a shooting in Warrenpoint, and a car bomb in Derry:

                  https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-46934277

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                    Going back a few pages. (coz I missed it at the time)

                    Originally posted by Snake Plissken View Post

                    No they aren't and if you actually bothered to find out how we do referendums then you wouldn't have written that. Seven months is... optimistic.
                    Oh come on. This is england, home of the executive barely trammeled by parliament, which they have crossed all sorts of boundaries with in the last couple of months, and a constitution that seems to be as much a gentleman's agreement as anything else. I'm sure the UK could manage. UCL seems to think that the shortest possible time is 22 weeks. The EU could definitely live with an extension that covered that.

                    Have you not seen the last couple of days? You appear not to have noticed that power right now is held in the hands of the DUP. You also appear not to have noticed that all the Labour MPs who support a second referendum stood outside Portcullis House yesterday. There were 71 of them. Less than a 1/3 of the PLP.
                    Ah don't pay any heed to the DUP. They were never going to vote for a no confidence motion. Lets just focus on the massive society destroying crisis that is coming down the tracks in the form of any type of brexit. The DUP and the ERG are only going to vote to keep May in power, but wrt brexit ultimately only really act to make Labour the most powerful ones with respect to what happens next. Whether or not this brexit deal passes is up to Labour, everything else is pretty fixed. Whether or not the UK goes for a second referendum is up to Labour. Sure they're not in government, but the Government is utterly broken on this issue, and incapable of doing anything.

                    As long as the DUP and ERG will snap back into line to avoid an election then there is nothing the opposition can do. This Government has to fall due to its own incompetence because the DUP and the ERG would rather avoid Brexit than have a GE and on the other side, the likes of Anna Soubry would rather have Brexit than let Corbyn in.
                    See this isn't quite true. Judging by those numbers above, If labour were to change their position to "The Govt is incapable of producing a brexit deal that can get through parliament, They've made such an utter balls of things that the only thing we can do is send this whole mess back to the people to decide" and were to take at least 100 of their mps with them, then A second vote gets close enough to half the MPs, to give other MPs the cover to come to the conclusion that the people need to decide, as a way out of a hard brexit. Because as things stand May seems intent on offering no concessions and insisting that other people line up behind her current position. And Labour are refusing to get involved in the discussion. Which is good tactics, but it is a strategy that ultimately leads to a hard brexit.

                    Hate to break it to you, but the overwhelming wishes of actual Labour Party members is to Remain.

                    And while I'm at it, I know that the Internet is a write-only medium for you so I'm going to put this in as few syllables as possible. Right now, under current circumstances, a second referendum is impossible. Can't be done.

                    Please. Understand and accept this. I'm tired of writing it.
                    Of course the overwhelming wishes of the Actual Labour party members is to remain. That was my point. If as you say it is too late to push for a second referendum, then it is abundantly clear that the leadership of the labour party never intended to hold one, and they fucked their members. They Fucked every single one of them who thought that they would act in good faith. Fucked them all, and didn't even buy them dinner. And that's going to be an interesting discussion.

                    But it's not impossible, and it's not too late. The EU will give the UK any length of extension it wants, if it avoids a hard brexit. The Labour party leadership resisting pushing for a second referendum at this point is a worrying sign, and could simply be the product of Barry Gardiner not knowing anything whatsoever about the EU. If they keep pushing this line, and fannying about, they could utterly destroy the party, by poisoning it for activists in a way that would make the iraq war look like a minor inmate dispute in a kindergarten.

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                      Originally posted by Nefertiti2 View Post
                      interesting things happening in DUP circles

                      https://twitter.com/Kilsally/status/1086669471853568001
                      That highlights the interesting split in the DUP between those who basically want to be a Fianna Fail for prebyterians and orangemen, and the proper fucking nutcases. I reckon half of the stupid shit they do is an effort to keep that coalition together.

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                        Originally posted by The Awesome Berbaslug!!! View Post

                        That highlights the interesting split in the DUP between those who basically want to be a Fianna Fail for prebyterians and orangemen, and the proper fucking nutcases. I reckon half of the stupid shit they do is an effort to keep that coalition together.
                        Couldn't this also perfectly describe the Conservative Party.

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                          Not really. English politics is too embarrassingly childlike to be thought of in those terms.

                          The closest thing that the UK has managed to Fianna Fail was Scottish Labour in its pomp. But that's because Culturally scotland is a lot more like Ireland than it is England.
                          Last edited by The Awesome Berbaslug!!!; 19-01-2019, 21:43.

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                            OK. But the stuff about a coalition between a not quite insane wing and the proper nutcases, and doing all kinds of stupid shit to keep that coalition together...

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                              the two wings of the DUP do a much better job of hiding this divide though by all publicly appearing to be insane.

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                                Sooo....

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                                  Good poll for Labour again today. I wouldn't be going for a general election if I were the government. Plus this could be a load of bollocks anyhow.

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                                    Originally posted by Tubby Isaacs View Post
                                    Good poll for Labour again today. I wouldn't be going for a general election if I were the government. Plus this could be a load of bollocks anyhow.
                                    Depends on the company, of course - the Tories will be quoting the ComRes one.

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                                      Yougov does most polls and has Labour floundering, Con Res had Labour 1 point behind but the others have Labour up.

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                                        Interesting survey of Institute of Directors members. Only 20% back no deal, 45% back some kind of referendum.

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                                          https://twitter.com/blue_labour/status/1086211295102275584

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                                            Originally posted by Tubby Isaacs View Post
                                            Yougov does most polls and has Labour floundering, Con Res had Labour 1 point behind but the others have Labour up.
                                            YouGov methodology is differnt from everyone else. They do polls with people already on their database.

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                                              There's been another one with the Tories in front, by Number Cruncher.

                                              Labour didn't concentrate its vote very well in 2017, piling up 40,000 majorities in cities. If it's really losing "hard Remainers", you'd expect them to be disproportionately in these seats, and they could afford to lose them.

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                                                that article hurts my brain.

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                                                  Glasman appears to be a very strange individual

                                                  In April 2011, Glasman called on the Labour Party to establish a dialogue with sympathisers of the far-right English Defence League (EDL), in order "to build a party that brokers a common good, that involves those people who support the EDL within our party. Not dominant in the party, not setting the tone of the party, but just a reconnection with those people that we can represent a better life for them, because that's what they want".

                                                  In July 2011, Glasman called for all immigration to be temporarily halted and for the right of free movement of labour, a key provision of the Treaty of Rome, to be abrogated
                                                  I also find it interesting that it appears in The Nation, and wonder if it was rejected by all of the more likely publications in the UK


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                                                    Yeah, it's reheated Bennery. Recognize no trade offs and say "democracy" when people point them out to you.

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