The Brexit Thread

[Furtho]

Bloke out in Coventry city centre at lunchtime shouting "Viva la Brexit".

[Evariste Euler Gauss]

'"they want Article 50 withdrawn forever in the event of No Deal"

Eh? I can't make head or tail of what that is supposed to mean.

[Diable Rouge]

I don't think that was any great surprise.

So have Labour now said (h/t ad hoc, in another place) that they want Article 50 withdrawn forever in the event of No Deal? Very bold if so.

In the event of No Brexit, surely?

[Lucy Waterman]

I don't think that was any great surprise.

So have Labour now said (h/t ad hoc, in another place) that they want Article 50 withdrawn forever in the event of No Deal? Very bold if so.

No one of any persuasion is going to vote for no confidence in a government formed by their own party. Unless they cross the floor at the same time, I suppose.

[ad hoc]

To clarify what I meant elsewhere, Tubby, this is the way May can take no deal off the table (to have a bill that says in the event of no deal by March 28th, article 50 will be revoked). Now I am guessing that Labour would rather May joins those dots and proposes the bill than they do (another thing I disagree with Labour on, but I understand the logic of).

[Tubby Isaacs]

I think the danger with that it's easy for May to rally her base by turning it back on Labour by asking them how they can do it. Still, it's an interesting development.

[Tubby Isaacs]

'"they want Article 50 withdrawn forever in the event of No Deal"

Eh? I can't make head or tail of what that is supposed to mean.

They've said May should take No Deal off the table. The only way that can happen, as ad hoc said, was that a bill is passed that Article 50 is revoked if no deal on 28 March. That would have to be a revocation forever, as I understand it.

[Moonlight Shadow]

“Should the WA we have negotiated with the EU be rejected again, we will notify our revocation of Art 50 in order to avoid a No Deal situation. The WA applies only during the negotiation phase until we finalise our future relationship with the EU, all options are still on the table thereafter. Accepting the WA will ensure Brexit occurs in timely fashion on the 29^th of March which is the referendum mandate, to exit the EU”

At some point, May will bite the bullet and issue such a statement, probably shortly before the 2^nd vote. I doubt her WA will be rejected by then…especially if her resignation is also offered as a condition.

[ursus arctos]

The concept of revocation being "forever" is somewhat specious, as each Member State always has the right to invoke it at a later date.

[Snake Plissken]

So, those compromises that May was asking for means that everyone else has to compromise and tell their MPs to back her deal because... er... she can't get her MPs to back her deal.

And Corbyn was supposed to go and talk to her?

[Snake Plissken]

The concept of revocation being "forever" is somewhat specious, as each Member State always has the right to invoke it at a later date.

I think Article 50 is about to get heavily revised whatever happens.

[Moonlight Shadow]

I think Article 50 is about to get heavily revised whatever happens.

The cancellation policy might get a tad more expensive I suspect, particularly when cancelled shortly before it happens...

[Tubby Isaacs]

The concept of revocation being "forever" is somewhat specious, as each Member State always has the right to invoke it at a later date.

The EU can just revoke and not rule out re-invoking exactly when it wants?

[Ginger Yellow]

The EU can't revoke anything. The UK can revoke and invoke at will. At least until the treaty is changed (or after the Article 50 period expires without revocation).

[Tubby Isaacs]

I meant the UK, sorry.

The UK would surely come under some pressure to rule out invoking again, wouldn't it? Seems very unfair on them to have the UK sat in there, effectively threatening to walk out again,.

[Ginger Yellow]

I'm not talking about the politics, just the legality.

[Ginger Yellow]

I should say, not quite at will, it requires a parliamentary vote.

[Snake Plissken]

It doesn't, because the EU will accept anything from the UK Government. But it would probably be better if Parliament did vote on it.

The problem with that is that May would have to capitulate. And probably resign.

[Ginger Yellow]

The ECJ ruling requires a vote. For unilateral revocation anyway. I suppose you might have a government-led revocation which was then unanimously accepted by the EU 27 and parliament. Seems like a considerably less likely scenario though.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Whatever he means by "rule out no deal", sending this was another gift to May.

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1085910374052974593

[Moonlight Shadow]

I think DAG summed the situation quite well on Twitter, they only way to rule out not deal, in the present circumstances is to either accept the WA or revoke Art 50.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Well yeah. What's supposed to happen next, I don't get it.

May could actually tell the truth here and bounce it straight back to Labour.

[ursus arctos]

I think that you are interpreting the concept of ruling out No Deal in a much more legalistic and watertight manner than it was intended. I read the request as being for a public commitment rather than a formally binding instrument.

[Satchmo Distel]

Or just an indication that she thinks avoiding No Deal is a more urgent priority than making no concessions on her red lines.

[imp]

Since late June 2016 I've been telling anyone prepared to listen to me banging on that Brexit won't happen. "It would have to be a really soft Brexit on EU terms," I pontificated, "which is effectively not a Brexit at all. A hard Brexit is a political impossibility due to the Irish border issue." Leaving the EU with No Deal was not an option, I thought, because at some point the country would come to its senses and understand, "This is going to be a fucking mad disaster. We have to find a way out."

It's a bit like a drunk frat boy sitting in front of a plate of dog turd and saying, "I'm going to eat that" for a bet. You sit there watching him, thinking that surely he won't do it. As the smell gets worse and worse, and he begins to sober up, of course he changes his mind. You'd expect.

All along, though, a part of me has obviously thought the frat boy might just eat the dog turd after all. Just because someone said he wouldn't dare. Just because he loves to make himself puke and risk a severe and possibly fatal illness. Just because 5.2 out of the 10 people in the room said it would be a good idea. And so a year ago, when I qualified to apply for German citizenship, I started the process, and on Monday morning at 7.56, while it rained outside in a January Monday morning kind of way, I stood in Hessen's registry office room 109 and a German bureaucrat swore me in, and I walked out with a piece of paper in my hand that secures my future as an EU citizen. I would never have bothered to do this if it hadn't been for Brexit. So thanks for that, in a way, I guess. But I still hate this whole fucking depressing disaster, more than ever before, and I still really hope that the drunken frat boy sobers up and says, "You know what, that's just the stupidest fucking idea I've ever had, and as a drunken frat boy I've had a lot of really fucking stupid ideas. Please remove this plate of dog turd."

66% of Lincolnshire folk voted for Brexit, the most pro-Leave county in Britain. I can't speak for the rest of the country, but I can safely say that people in Lincolnshire won't riot if Britain stays in the EU. They wouldn't be arsed to. They wouldn't know how.