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    Lots of Labour backbenchers have rebelled in favour of the Single Market, more than once. Including a number in strong Brexit constituencies near me. Our route to the shops hasn't yet been blocked by "Bryant and Clwyd Out!" protestors

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      How many Labour "rebels" would there be if they were properly pro-Single Market? Certainly those 11 or so who wouldn't support the abstention on the Single Market, plus some others. 30? How many post industrial MPs are going to want to run on keeping out a small number of Poles?

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        Almost nobody in UK politics is actually saying that staying in the EU is clearly a massively better option than adhering to the referendum result.
        Almost nobody in English politics.

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          In more Brexit dividend news, DEFRA is apparently procuring a £400m IT system. By March.

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            Good lord. 3,500 troops to be put on stand by for No Deal.

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              Originally posted by Tubby Isaacs View Post
              In more Brexit dividend news, DEFRA is apparently procuring a £400m IT system. By March.
              Where did you read that Tubbs? Not disputing it, I'd just like to read more about it if you've got a link.

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                I've seen £400m allocated to Defra in the latest measures, and it's well known DEFRA has an IT procurement nightmare when it comes to Brexit, but I haven't personally seen the two things mentioned together.

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                  Jonathan Portes on Twitte, Fussbudget.

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                    Going to that Peoples Vote poll from a few days ago.

                    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1074625562713313280

                    I'll leave it as an exercise for the reader why the Peoples Vote people and their mates concentrated on the last of those numbers of not, for instance, the middle one.
                    Last edited by Snake Plissken; 18-12-2018, 18:14.

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                      If that polling is correct, I'd interpret it as saying Labour won't win an election right now. Which doesn't make their "We need an election" strategy particularly compelling.

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                        That they think it's better to get 36 than 22?

                        Not that I believe 22.

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                          Chances of Labour winning an election outright are very slim. Chances of them making it impossible for the Tories to form a coalition are pretty high. Assuming, perhaps foolhardily, that the Lib Dems wouldn't join them this time.

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                            May is now said to be favouring 'a series of votes' on other options, as amendments to the motion backing her deal.

                            I'm not at all sure how that works, given that there could be majorities for mutually exclusive options.

                            I'm sure in her head she's a master tactician, while everyone has long realised she'll just blurt things out to get to the end of another day in office, regardless of the eventual consequence.

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                              Matthew Goodwin recently appeared on a panel entitled “Is Rising Ethnic Diversity a Threat to the West? .” With FurediBot now Spiked Claire Fox.He met Steve Bannon beforehand.

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                                Originally posted by Ginger Yellow View Post
                                I've seen £400m allocated to Defra in the latest measures, and it's well known DEFRA has an IT procurement nightmare when it comes to Brexit, but I haven't personally seen the two things mentioned together.
                                Originally posted by Tubby Isaacs View Post
                                Jonathan Portes on Twitte, Fussbudget.
                                Cheers, both.

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                                  Originally posted by Ginger Yellow View Post
                                  Chances of Labour winning an election outright are very slim. Chances of them making it impossible for the Tories to form a coalition are pretty high. Assuming, perhaps foolhardily, that the Lib Dems wouldn't join them this time.
                                  Your analysis is slightly based, I guess, on polls. I'd guess that most polls don't take account of what would be a very targetted ground campaign from thousands of Momentum/Labour folk. I think that'll change the outcome from what the polls predict, and that there'll be a comfortable Labour majority.

                                  However, I always call elections wrong.

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                                    Given how much can seemingly happen within a few days and weeks at the moment, I think it's very difficult to predict an election outcome. Depending on how the campaign went, either side could I think get a majority from here. A comfortable majority? For Corbyn, I'm not sure how high that figure needs to be. Anything over a hundred would probably see him OK.

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                                      Your analysis is slightly based, I guess, on polls. I'd guess that most polls don't take account of what would be a very targetted ground campaign from thousands of Momentum/Labour folk.
                                      Only in part. It's also based on the fact that nearly half of the country still appears to want no-FoM Brexit and probably doesn't trust Labour to deliver it. And that Corbyn puts off a lot of Tory Remainers more than Tory incompetence/malice does. Admittedly many of them are London based, but not all.

                                      To be clear, I think Labour probably get a plurality, and maybe very close to a majority. And it depends on how an election happens of course. I can envisage scenarios that lead to a Labour majority, it's just not my current expectation.
                                      Last edited by Ginger Yellow; 18-12-2018, 19:31.

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                                        Yeah Corbyn would need a big majority, as loads of Labour MPs are against all his policies.

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                                          I voted remain with some reluctance, due to the following:
                                          a) The treatment of Greece by the EU. I have a centrist Creek friend and the horrors of the pre-SYRIZA governments austerity drive appalled me - children fainting at school due to hunger and the provision of medical care outside the main cities being left to Doctors working for free. Whilst I agree that these horrors were largely self-inflicted the way in which the EU dealt with Greece's plea for reform shocked me. Particularly as I saw this harshness being implemented as a way of warning other Mediterranean states to toe the line
                                          b) The argument that the EU represents a means to spread the Clinton style of economic management which prioritised access to the financial markets for quick credit over any long-terms plans to improve the life of their citizens. Wolfgang Streeck talks about this in 'How will capitalism end?' This standpoint is part of my desire to see capitalism swept away to be replaced by yet-to-be-born model that predicated upon universal economic equality. I do not blame the EU for there promotion of the consolidated state as they are only following a trend, but one that limits the scope of government action in the sphere of improving the life of those at or near the bottom.

                                          Post-referendum I still harboured hopes of a way to stay in the EU until the election of Trump and the ensuing gains made by the populist-right throughout Europe (France, Holland, Italy, Germany and now Spain) is prompting me to worry about whether it could happen here. We had a close shave with the BNP who managed on a limited scale to draw support from outside their racist heartland - they promised to be a labour party just like your grandfather voted for. An early sign of the far-right adopting the clothing of the left to widen their appeal. The usual far-right problem of leaders who repulsed the vast majority saved as once again, though the oxygen of publicity has helped to legitimise their views to a growing minority.

                                          We may well be about to experience another once-a-century turmoil that threatens to wreck Europe (see the rise of the Fascism last century, The French Revolutionary Wars and the 30 Years War). The possible perfect storm of the post-2008 austerity politic, the failure of the Arab Spring and the understandable mass-movement of people towards Europe and the wide-spread changes from the capitalist profit maximising moves towards outsourcing and automation poses an existential threat to our current way of life. This is the perfect breeding ground for (social) media-friendly far-right populists to gain votes, mixing the usual xenophobic fear of the other (e.g. Muslim, Jew, Women) with blaming the establishment parties for all the woes of the common man (unemployment, restricted opportunities and a general feeling of being left behind). We are seeing it on the mainland and the limited success of the BNP recently.

                                          How has this changed my view on whether we remain or leave. If out politicians get this wrong, and judging by the low calibre of the vast majority of them (Tory and Labour) they will, we could well be facing a shit-storm. Which leads me to the worrying conclusion that a soft-Brexit with all its economic woes may well be preferable if it stops the rise of the right. I hope I'm wrong.
                                          Last edited by Gert from the Well; 18-12-2018, 19:45.

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                                            So it looks like the quick election might well improve the Tory position, but if it's won, it'll give a Brexit policy that the EU say they won't accept and a cohort of Labour MPs who ste going to vote down lots of the other stuff.

                                            Why is a quick general election being talked about all the time?

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                                              I cannot get the reply with quote thing to work, this was meant to be in reply to Tubby's 3500 troops on standby post

                                              They've got wind of the tank

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                                                I think 2,000 of them are to be based at Cambourne.

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                                                  Originally posted by TonTon View Post
                                                  Yeah Corbyn would need a big majority, as loads of Labour MPs are against all his policies.
                                                  Yeah, he'll need a big enough majority to be able to crush the dissenters into line. All leaders do, but for Corbyn the margin will be bigger.

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                                                    Originally posted by Tubby Isaacs View Post
                                                    I think 2,000 of them are to be based at Cambourne.
                                                    TANK DON'T STOP CAMBOURNE WEDNESDAYS

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