The Brexit Thread

[Ginger Yellow]

Rees Mogg, a populist?

[Pérou Flaquettes]

.

[Pérou Flaquettes]

This Fishing thing is really nuts. There's loads of articles doing the rounds at the moment pointing out that the UK exports virtually everything they catch, and import virtually everything they eat, so market access considerably more important than quotas, so the idea of a Brexit Fishing dividend is insane nonsense. Brexit isn't going to tranform every Mackerel into a Cod. the proportion of the UK Quota that goes to small fishing boats (the heroes of the brexit revolution) is something like 4%, and those people are most reliant on exports.

Only 0.05% of the UK economy but it's such an emotive sector, a bit like the Miners, people admire their bravery and resilience. And it's OUR waters, so in effect an extension of OUR land so pas touche, hands off, there's a very strong territorial dimension. So, plenty of commonalities with the core Brexit themes here. And logic goes out of the window when it's pitted against such powerful feelings (the fact we only consume 10% of the total catch, or that the crews are mainly foreign, or that 50%+ of the UK fishing industry belong to the Dutch and Norwegians etc.). You can see why the Leave campaign focused on the Fishy People so obsessively (I remember reading/hearing somewhere that Farage was a member of the EU Common Fisheries Policy committee but hardly ever attended any meetings).

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

another three weeks of the referendum campaign and they'd have been demanding the return of steam trains.

[Pérou Flaquettes]

I've only been to france three times. The first two were playing as a musician in a show called Celtic Legends, which was basically five guys dressed all in black, against a black background, (We were not the important part of the show) playing straight down the line trad, with a load of pretty female dancers, in dresses designed to appeal to audiences in the country that gave us the can can and has Marianne as a symbol. The first time we did a concert near toulon one near avignon, and with a gig in Rodez in between. Rodez really opened my eyes to just how much amazing old stuff there is scattered around France, and in such extraordinary good nick, I mean I knew that Avignon was going to be dead fancy, but Rodez cathedral is at least as impressive as Christchurch, or St Patrick's in Dublin.

France would be a big destination for young Irish groups looking to make a few bob, and there's quite a well developed circuit. (And having listened to the some of the musette stations I can kind of see why) but it seems that there are an awful lot of small and medium sized towns around France who are kind of just pleased to see musical acts come to their town from abroad. The people were really friendly, but the thing I liked most about it was the food that was laid on afterwards. I'd never eaten an entire baguette stuffed with Brie and raw onions before. It's something you could get very used to.

Rodez has got the Soulages Museum too now, it's really boosted the town's profile and visitors.

but it seems that there are an awful lot of small and medium sized towns around France who are kind of just pleased to see musical acts come to their town from abroad

Yes probably but maybe less true of the last 2 decades, 100s, even possibly 1000s, of international festivals (not just music) or festivals with an international flavour now throughout France, mostly spring and summer obviously, although the deep hinterland is probably less fortunate (less wealthy and less touristic than coastal France).

[anton pulisov]

How does it "disappear"? There needs to be a vote (probably several) to stop it.

Well, Sweden has been in the process of joining the euro for quite some time now. But everyone knows it's never going to happen. Similarly, the EU could drag this Art 50 thing on indefinitely, all while continuing to expertly pit the various UK parliamentary factions against each other. Eventually everyone will get bored of it and Art 50 will be cancelled over some lunch meeting in 2030. It won't even make the news.

[Ginger Yellow]

Oral submissions for the petitioners in the the Article 50 revocation case. Interestingly, it seems the formal position of the EU is that it can be revoked if the Council agrees unanimously.

Not sure I buy the petitioners' reasoning, but I can't say I have any expertise in EU constitutional law.

[Diable Rouge]

Oral submissions for the petitioners in the the Article 50 revocation case. Interestingly, it seems the formal position of the EU is that it can be revoked if the Council agrees unanimously.

Not sure I buy the petitioners' reasoning, but I can't say I have any expertise in EU constitutional law.

Council unanimity would be important to avoid the provision becoming a farce - otherwise Italy or Poland could deploy it in a fit of pique over a European ruling, and promptly revoke it the following week.

[Diable Rouge]

Meanwhile, Patrick O'Flynn has left UKIP over Yaxley-Lennon, and has joined the (now eurosceptic) SDP.

[Ginger Yellow]

Council unanimity would be important to avoid the provision becoming a farce - otherwise Italy or Poland could deploy it in a fit of pique over a European ruling, and promptly revoke it the following week.

That's the Commission's argument, according to Maugham's notes from the hearing.

[Ginger Yellow]

From the notes, the UK government seems to be tactically declining to make submissions on the substance so as to bolster its position on standing. Ballsy move, but I suspect it will be successful. Then again, they tried that with the Article 50 vote case in the Supreme Court and it backfired. I also would have thought that the standing question would have been addressed when the ECJ decided to take on the case on an expedited basis, but I don't know how these things work in that sort of detail.

[Ginger Yellow]

Interesting. The Council seems to backslide a bit on unanimity under questioning from the judges:

Question from Judge
If I correctly understood what you said the Commission says the MS has the right of revocation but it cannot become effective unilaterally? It is a conditional right. Where does that come from is it Article 50 – is that the basis? Where does the right come from if not the Vienna Convention?
Answer
It comes from the spirt of the Treaty which does not seek to prevent a MS from remaining.
Question from Judge
So Commission is arguing in favour of an autonomous interpretation of right to revocation?
Answer
Autonomous in favour of EU law.
Question from President
Same question I asked to Commission to Council.
Answer
Our interpretation is that if nothing happens a MS leaves. Therefore you must imagine there has been some sort of revocation. Our view would be that on the next day we are dealing with a third country. But the withdrawal notification could be revoked. We might be in a very dangerous circumstances of conflicting interpretations.
Question from President
So there is no misunderstanding it is a matter of expressly doing. Are you positively approving the revocation which means a single MS has a veto power or are you just as expressly stating the Council has to formalise unanimously an objection which is a non acceptance of the revocation. That is what I am submitting to you.
Answer
The situation is this. If we had no answer I could tell you what my advice would be. The advice will be that after the term of the two years if there has been no decision to terminate the MS will be out on the day following the end of the two year period.
It takes unanimity in Council to take MS to stay. If you are thinking in terms of mechanism can be put together, I have two points. First any voting rule or modalities for the taking of decisions in a mechanism invented by case law must be in line with general rules of treaty for action by European Council – consensus unless otherwise required. Or there could be acceptance unless there is unanimity to refuse revocation?
Lord President – that is what I am saying
Answer
It might not be difficult for a withdrawing Member State to find one ally in this circumstances.

In general the court seems to be very open to the idea of some other control mechanism for revocation.

[Diable Rouge]

Current Commons WA vote count.

[ursus arctos]

I keep wondering what Western Australia has to do with anything

[Benjm]

Meanwhile, Patrick O'Flynn has left UKIP over Yaxley-Lennon, and has joined the (now eurosceptic) SDP.

Blimey, I had no idea that they were still going. It may even have come as news to them.

[Nefertiti2]

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1067390570891489285

[Disco Child Ballads]

May leading a government of national unity strikes me as extremely unlikely.

[ad hoc]

Led by May, I agree. But I can see some sort of centrist alliance emerging from this. Possibly an entirely new party consisting of bots of the Tories and Labour. It's going to be utter chaos to be honest, and if it didn;t matter so much it would be pass the popcorn time.

[ad hoc]

This by the way is a fairly long summary of where Labour stands (or rather where different people stand). I don;t think it says much new, but it seems fairly accurate https://www.buzzfeed.com/hannahaloth...ldqpgm#4ldqpgm

[ad hoc]

https://twitter.com/JMPSimor/status/1066782830531919872?s=19

[Snake Plissken]

Parliament passed a motion to get the full Brexit legal advice published. This Government refuses to do so.

I imagine we'll have Rees-Mogg etc banging on about Parliamentary sovereignty within the hour. Right? Right?

[Tubby Isaacs]

You thought it was bad? It's worse than that.

https://twitter.com/jdportes/status/1067535015075082251

[Diable Rouge]

Even a skewed question "Would staying in the EU be humiliating?" scores only 47% as a clear Yes:

http://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1067543861134848000

[Benjm]

Up late watching Sky News press preview. Guests are The Sun's Tom Newton Dunn and Sam Cam's sister. TND provides considerably more nuanced analysis than he does in the day job. As has been pointed out again and again and again, it's just a fucking game to these people.

[Nefertiti2]

John McDonnell has said a second Brexit referendum “might be an option we seize upon”, admitting for the first time remain should be on the ballot paper and insisting that “no deal” should not.

Labour’s shadow chancellor said he would vote to remain in any new referendum and that offering the chance to vote on no deal would carry too high a risk.