The Brexit Thread

[ursus arctos]

https://twitter.com/irish_news/status/984310153595023360?s=19

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Thanks very much. I wanted to send it to my sister.

[Gerontophile]

Is she looking to redecorate?

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

In France for instance, there’s been a couple of blogs/websites that tracked the "pledge performance" of the last 2 presidents. Hollande (2012-2017) for instance had 189 big pledges and sub-pledges in his 2012 manifesto, and only fully delivered on 35% of it and partially delivered on about 55% which is not too bad I suppose as it’s not like he can do what he wants of course, there’s a parliament, an opposition, institutions eg a Conseil Constitutionnel (which rejected some of his pledges, eg on he capping of domestic gas-electricity tariffs for instance), circumstances too (eg recession) etc.

Firstly 189 pledges is a hell of a lot. Like an insane amount. But to fully implement at least a third of them, and partially deliver on five out of nine of them is extraordinary to my mind. Maybe French people are more demanding, but that's eyecatching.



Look at us! Top of the world Ma!

The thing about that graph is the countries to the right of France all had a super messy bubble that went pop. Portugal, spain and Ireland, and then Greece. 5The reason it's so high is that France was borrowing quite a lot of money just before the crash. in 2006 it was 2.6% of gdp, in 2007 it was 2.4%. But that kind of means that if there hadn't been a recession, France would have borrowed about 15% of gdp during that time anyway. The borrowing to counter the recession goes on top of that.

lets for the sake of argument say that France had a balanced budget in 2006 and 2007, they would have entered the recession with a debt to GDP ratio of about 60% borrowing would have peaked at 5% of gdp, and gradually tapered off with a return to a balanced budget in 2014, like all the other european countries, like say Germany or the netherlands. Debt To gdp would have peaked at around 75%, and been relatively quickly eroded back down towards 60% by growth, so they're ready to ride out the next recession. Instead we have the current situation, which is where we were in 2006, but France is only about 20% of GDP away from bankruptcy. France is essentially in exactly the same position that Italy was in in 2006. This is what people should actually be judging Macron on. this is actually really important, and he's making fuck all headway.

This sort of thing is actually really important. this is something that he should have addressed right at the beginning of his presidency, and got it over with. People would be Really pissed off in the short term, but once you get to the position where your Tax revenue is supporting your spending commitments, then spending increases start to track economic growth, and it compounds quite quickly. So spending levels quickly bounce back and surpass where they were before.

But ultimately a lot of the problems that France faces now have a lot to do with not dealing with this between 2005 and 2007. The problems it's going to face in the near future because they haven't dealt with this now are going to be considerably messier. those EU rules aren't there for an arbitrary reason. They're there to minimize the impact, the misery, the duration and the cost of recessions. .

[DCI Harry Batt]

So, as expected, the EU27 have approved the withdrawal agreement and the political declaration today.

[johnr]

Indeed. It would be very odd if they didn't.

[DCI Harry Batt]

Funny, though.

[Pérou Flaquettes]

Nice to see (ex MEP & ex MP for Gateshead) Baroness Joyce Quin in the North Est & Cumbria Sunday politics BBC programme today, brings a bit of sanity and a change from the dreadful Tory trio of Guy Opperman, Trudy Harrison & Anne-Marie Trevelyan and bloody Ronnie Campbell… Not to forget today’s Conservative, Dehenna Davison Fareham (Tory candidate for Bishop Auckland), she sounds like a right one her, she criticised Labour MP Paul Williams (Stockton South) for saying that North East people should maybe have looked at facts more carefully and she defended Brexiters for voting "with their hearts and feelings and not facts". FFS… One for the future no doubt, she's very young (24) and I can see her fitting right in with the Raabians once they take over, in the new Singaporean United Kingdom. I'd never heard of her so I googled her as she sounds a right crank, interesting woman (Student, 24, set to marry councillor 35 YEARS her senior - and just eight years older than her grandad
The couple will feature in the new Channel 4 show Bride and Prejudice which follows six couples who confront opposition to their marriages in the weeks before they say 'I do').

Joyce Quin is a very nice lady, met her once, speaks good French too (she taught it, but that doesn't always mean much, trust me). I met her through my wife and MIL who’ve known her for for decades as they’re both keen Northumbrian pipers – a dying breed unfortunately – and Quin regularly opens her house for pipers’ gatherings, I went to one of these gatherings (I much prefer the Scottish pipes TBH).

Trudy Harrison 2 weeks ago was complaining about the scrapping of the planned Moorside nuclear plant in Cumbria, saying that it’s dreadful that the UK, "a leader in nuclear research and technology with among the best universities the world bla-di-bla" was pulling the plug on nuclear energy etc. Erm, not sure about the UK being a leader in that area anymore, if it were it wouldn’t have foreigners building those plants I would have thought.

Toshiba has announced it is pulling out of the construction of a nuclear powerstation in Cumbria, putting the overall future of any project going ahead at the site in doubt.

The Moorside plant was projected to create up to 21,000 jobs over its lifetime, and produce nearly 7 per cent of the country's future electricity requirements.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Joyce Quin is a very nice lady, met her once, speaks good French too (she taught it, but that doesn't always mean much, trust me). I met her through my wife and MIL who’ve known her for for decades as they’re both keen Northumbrian pipers – a dying breed unfortunately – and Quin regularly opens her house for pipers’ gatherings, I went to one of these gatherings (I much prefer the Scottish pipes TBH).

Oh god. PF is just wrong about something. I suppose it was going to happen eventually, but Northumbrian pipe music is just on a different plane to Scottish pipe music. For a start you can play it indoors without fear of breaking anything or anyone. Secondly it seems to have twice as many notes, And It's infinitely easier to listen to. I just love the tone of the Instrument. The Scottish pipes are first and foremost a war weapon, and are not afraid to show it.

[Logan Mountstuart]

Northumberland pipes 1 Scottish pipes 0.

[Pérou Flaquettes]

Joyce Quin is a very nice lady, met her once, speaks good French too (she taught it, but that doesn't always mean much, trust me). I met her through my wife and MIL who’ve known her for for decades as they’re both keen Northumbrian pipers – a dying breed unfortunately – and Quin regularly opens her house for pipers’ gatherings, I went to one of these gatherings (I much prefer the Scottish pipes TBH).

Oh god. PF is just wrong about something. I suppose it was going to happen eventually, but Northumbrian pipe music is just on a different plane to Scottish pipe music. For a start you can play it indoors without fear of breaking anything or anyone. Secondly it seems to have twice as many notes, And It's infinitely easier to listen to. I just love the tone of the Instrument. The Scottish pipes are first and foremost a war weapon, and are not afraid to show it.

You sycophant... Pfff, I’m never right, you should ask my wife, she calls me Mister Wrong.

Away man, get a grip, Scottish pipes piss on Northumbrian pipes’ whiny me-me-me sound. If you'd say, I don’t know, Uilleann pipes, OK now we're talking, these are proper pipes.

I like the Corsican pipes too, there's a very famous folk band in the Francophonie called I Muvrini (Corsican Polyphonies, Pulifunie in Corsican), they play the traditional Corsican caramusa (bagpipes – cornemuse in Fr.), beautiful (I’m sure that you know the big Breton bands, Tri Yann, Dan Ar Braz etc., they’ve sold millions of records since the 1970s, they use the Binioù a lot, nice sound too but not as nice as your Irish pipes IMO).

The Northumbrian pipes are only bearable when played by Kathryn Tickell (who’s not a very nice person according to many Northumbrian pipers (full of herself – but who isn’t these days?) but whom I like very much as she was kind enough to tell me that I played the fiddle well, as a joke of course as I bloody can’t – I once tried the fiddle in a folk music workshop that she ran at Rothbury music festival about 15 yrs ago, she plays the fiddle superbly too).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGB0...youtu.be&t=191

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

hah, that first video is the one I linked to I think. There's a breton instrument called the bombard, and I swear to god it's a sonic weapon. I have never heard any acoustic instrument that was remotely as loud. Someone once played it indoors and we barely got out with our lives.

[ursus arctos]

PF should be on retainer for the Northumbrian Tourist Board.

[Pérou Flaquettes]

hah, that first video is the one I linked to I think. There's a breton instrument called the bombard, and I swear to god it's a sonic weapon. I have never heard any acoustic instrument that was remotely as loud. Someone once played it indoors and we barely got out with our lives.

Sorry, hadn't noticed!

The bombarde, yes, well-known instrument in France, they broadcast the big Celtic Bagad events on TV in the summer, these things fill football stadia and Bercy-type venues too, very popular in Paris too (lots of Bretons there). Went to the big Celtic gigs one year, Quimper Festival and Lorient Interceltique Festival (which has grown insanely big, 700,000 visitors), nice but way too Celtic for me, it does my head in after half an hour TBH. I like the Fest Noz atmosphere (Breton dancing and traditional music, + lovely cider and crêpes) but I don't like the actual Breton dancing, certainly beats Morris dancing though.

[Diable Rouge]

Nick Boles continues to remould his Brexit alternative, and now appears to favour permanent EEA + CU:

http://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1066635582690992128

[Pérou Flaquettes]

In France for instance, there’s been a couple of blogs/websites that tracked the "pledge performance" of the last 2 presidents. Hollande (2012-2017) for instance had 189 big pledges and sub-pledges in his 2012 manifesto, and only fully delivered on 35% of it and partially delivered on about 55% which is not too bad I suppose as it’s not like he can do what he wants of course, there’s a parliament, an opposition, institutions eg a Conseil Constitutionnel (which rejected some of his pledges, eg on he capping of domestic gas-electricity tariffs for instance), circumstances too (eg recession) etc.

Firstly 189 pledges is a hell of a lot. Like an insane amount. But to fully implement at least a third of them, and partially deliver on five out of nine of them is extraordinary to my mind. Maybe French people are more demanding, but that's eyecatching.

I’ve put my answer in the French thread as it belongs there.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Sorry, hadn't noticed!

The bombarde, yes, well-known instrument in France, they broadcast the big Celtic Bagad events on TV in the summer, these things fill football stadia and Bercy-type venues too, very popular in Paris too (lots of Bretons there). Went to the big Celtic gigs one year, Quimper Festival and Lorient Interceltique Festival (which has grown insanely big, 700,000 visitors), nice but way too Celtic for me, it does my head in after half an hour TBH. I like the Fest Noz atmosphere (Breton dancing and traditional music, + lovely cider and crêpes) but I don't like the actual Breton dancing, certainly beats Morris dancing though.

Lorient is a big event in the irish music calendar. It is widely believed that one trip to the lorient festival will shave three years off your life, but it's only the ones at the end so it doesn't matter that much.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Labour calls for extending Article 50. Fine and sensible, but to negotiate what?

[Nefertiti2]

a new agreement.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The EU say there won't be one. At least not a bespoke one. I think they might be prepared to add some of the stuff Corbyn talks about on standards, but they can't say so because it'll just encourage Gove and all to piss about.

It's tricky.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

No there won't be an extension. the UK has to be out before the European Elections, and everyone is heartsick at the UK's pissing around. we've long ago passed the point where the EU would like you to simply fuck off.

[Nefertiti2]

Fortunately EU policy is not decided entirely in Cahir.

[Diable Rouge]

Simply settling on EEA+ would be a start for Corbyn.

[Diable Rouge]

312 UK nationals will acquire Irish citizenship today in a ceremony in Killarney.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Simply settling on EEA+ would be a start for Corbyn.

I agree.

Berba, do you not think an Article 50 extension would be forthcoming if the UK were to commit to the EEA (or thereabouts)?