The Brexit Thread

[ursus arctos]

They seem to think that a deal on joint supervision can be worked out that will allow much of the business to remain in London.

[Ginger Yellow]

The leader seems to be hoping that, more than anything, based on the fact that the Commission didn't go with the most hardline of all possible positions. It acknowledges that the EU reserves the right to relocate systemic CCPs, and they don't come any more systemic than LCH. There's a deal to be made if the UK isn't dogmatic on following ECB margin rules, ESMA oversight and ECJ interpretation of the rules, sure, but what are the chances of that? The UK didn't want ESMA oversight when it was in the EU.

[ursus arctos]

Very much agreed

[Tubby Isaacs]

We've been known to shift.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Speak of the devil.

I found myself struggling with a lot of that. I got the sense that they're saying that They're perfectly content for it to remain in the UK as long as the UK accepts a substantially greater level of oversight, and expanded role for the ECB, ECJ, and they still reserve the right to make big chunks relocate to the EU? It didn't seem to be sending out messages that brexiteers would be particularly happy with. Is that basically it?

[Patrick Thistle]

Most Brexiters won't understand or care about any of this. The smart move for the UK negotiators would be to sign a deal and lie to the public about it.

[Crusoe]

For what we're talking about, almost none. The conversation is basically a proxy for for LCH.Clearnet, which clears most interest rate swaps in the world and a huge cpart of the euro FX swaps. But even apart from them, it's basically all US, UK, and one German CCP.

Ah, central clearing, gotcha.

[Ginger Yellow]

I found myself struggling with a lot of that. I got the sense that they're saying that They're perfectly content for it to remain in the UK as long as the UK accepts a substantially greater level of oversight, and expanded role for the ECB, ECJ, and they still reserve the right to make big chunks relocate to the EU? It didn't seem to be sending out messages that brexiteers would be particularly happy with. Is that basically it?

Basically, yes. The actual proposal is described here. Systemically important CCPs like LCH (presumably) will be able to operate outside the EU, but they have to follow the same prudential rules as EU CCPs, they have to follow whatever rules on collateral management (ie haircuts and margin) the ECB (or, I suppose, the Danish Central Bank) sets, and they have to submit to site inspections and information requests from ESMA.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Most Brexiters won't understand or care about any of this. The smart move for the UK negotiators would be to sign a deal and lie to the public about it.

That was what I was thinking. If it were on offer at all.

Would it involve the ECJ? I assume it would.

[Ginger Yellow]

It would have to, as they'd be following EU legislation, and the EU insists on the ECJ being the ultimate arbiter of EU law.

[Ginger Yellow]

Christ almighty it's 8pm, why I am I still thinking about EU financial regulation.

[Pérou Flaquettes]

Most Brexiters won't understand or care about any of this. The smart move for the UK negotiators would be to sign a deal and lie to the public about it.

Quite. 75 per cent of people don’t even know who their local MP is, never mind understand the CTA, the ECJ, the ECB, the Customs Unions etc. and the manifold complexities of the EU!

[Tubby Isaacs]

What's it got to do with the public? It's up Paul Dacre and the right wing of the Tory party.

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

well I'm pretty sure by now that they don't understand it either.

[ursus arctos]

They never did.

The long and drawn out process of them coming to face reality will be interesting (though I'm sure that some never will, and fall back into a Little England Dolchstoßlegende)

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

well look at all the concessions that David Davis is making. Michael Collins had it easy by comparison.

[Diable Rouge]

It would seem that no fewer than eight Bills will be required to enact Brexit - just as 30 Tory MPs appear to be siding with Hammond:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-politics-live

[Patrick Thistle]

According to Super Shoppers which I watched last night, Brexit hs the reason you only get 10 Birds Eye fish fingers when you used to get 12 in the box. (The box has stayed the same size)

[Diable Rouge]

2016: 33,000 UK apllications for Irish passports
2017: 30,000 applications already by the end of May (which would extrapolate to 72,000 by December)...

http://www.thejournal.ie/passport-ap...54074-Jun2017/

[Tubby Isaacs]

Nigel Farage given up on no deal Brexit, by the sound of it.

What was the point of all this again?

[Toby Gymshorts]

To prove how gullible approximately 50% of voters can be when faced with a remarkably non-specific question?

[Toby Gymshorts]

That's clumsy, but YKWIM.

[Tubby Isaacs]

PM Theresa May has told EU leaders any EU citizen living in UK for five years will be given "settled EU status".
The new immigration status would grant them rights to stay in the UK and get health, education and other benefits after Brexit.

That's another "bargaining chip" gone then.

Or about to be gone, when the EU says "get lost".

[Snake Plissken]

Especially when the offer says that those rights of EU citizens will be protected by UK courts and not the ECJ.

She really, really hates the ECJ, doesn't she?

[Lang Spoon]

She'd have had us doing a Belarus from the ECHR as well, had she got the Monster Majority that was her right.