The Brexit Thread

[Diable Rouge]

A link to the European Commission's stepped-up warnings about a no-deal Brexit:

https://mobile.twitter.com/adampayne...93577164484608

[Ginger Yellow]

Still saying they're not going to do anything about contract continuity. Also the way they've divided up "preparedness" and "contingency planning" does suggest they put much stock even in enhanced equivalence.

[Flynnie]

"Never interrupt your enemy while he is making a mistake" is oft-cited, perhaps too much, by Corbyn defenders on Brexit. But if ever there was a time to apply that it is now.

The Tories are completely imploding, May is about to authorise sending letters to every household in the country saying food rationing might come back and you can't fly anywhere, the Home Secretary is tweeting that Corbyn is a Holocaust denier (OK, JC has to do something about that - namely sue the pants off Javid), and the EU is basically saying they don't think there will be a deal either - which a minority of people in the country want. Justine Greening's tri-partite referendum idea saw that most soft Brexiters would rather remain in the EU so there is a not-big-enough-yet but solid majority for Remain vs No Deal.

And again, May is about to authorise sending letters to every household in the country saying food rationing might come back.

[Diable Rouge]

Meanwhile, a petition calling for Article 50 to be rescinded over Vote Leave irregularities is picking up about 1,000 signatures per hour:

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/223729

[ad hoc]

Tory MP, Charlie Elphicke, thinks he's clever posting this in response.

What does this picture purport to show? Direct flights from Dublin to EU destinations? Because it's missing at least one. I know this because I have actually flown from Bucharest to Dublin

[Wouter D]

It also omits Schiphol. I assume that this is just a single airline.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I assume that's what it's supposed to be- or maybe it's just Ryanair or something.

Flynnie, not interrupting your opponent is a problem here because there's a clock ticking. Labour are shifting, let's be fair about that, but they aren't where they need to be on the Single Market/ Freedom of Movement. I don't blame the leadership entirely for that- 15 MPs voted against the Single Market rather than abstain on it, and some of the abstainers wouldn't vote for it- so they wouldn't be defeating the government. But I think they need to be supporting it for the sake of putting pressure on. Otherwise, I think May positions herself as being moderate.

[Ginger Yellow]

More Brexit divdends!

[ursus arctos]

The map is the Ryanair route network, and not current (though staying current is inherently difficult given their network's volatility).

[Tubby Isaacs]

Have I understood this properly? Anybody who brings stuff through Dover and avoid a load of tax that you'd have to pay if you brought it through another port?

[Ginger Yellow]

Related: NAO says DfT's no deal preparations are fucked.

15
Our detailed examination of the contingency preparations suggests that considerable work still needs to be completed. In the four work streams we reviewed that required planning for new systems (including new IT systems) and infrastructure that would need to be ready as a contingency for 2019, plans were still being finalised. By mid-June 2018, the situation was as follows:
•
At the border, the Department had agreed the scope of, and preferred option for, a temporary solution to manage lorry queueing and traffic flow at Dover, which it has called ‘Project Brock’. Highways England has reported that the project has very little room for delay, and that it carries significant risks. Although a contract to undertake work was awarded on 11 May 2018 and detailed engineering plans have been drawn up, operational plans to put it into place were still being developed. The new solution will need to be ready by March 2019. In July 2018, the Department reported to us that it was confident that the project would be delivered on time. Highways England reported that it remained on track to complete the project by March 2019.
•
The trailer registration scheme, a new IT system, needs to be built and rolled out so that owners can register their trailers before March 2019. The project had its business case approved in early June 2018 with a planned delivery deadline of December 2018, leaving just 7 months to issue the contract, develop the technical system and undertake user testing.
•
The International Driving Permits (IDPs) project had not completed a business case or agreed detailed delivery plans. The Department has asked the Post Office to submit detailed delivery plans, including for the training of staff, so as to be ready to issue IDPs by the end of January 2019. Currently 89 post office branches issue around 100,000 IDPs annually. The Department estimates that this may increase to 4,500 post offices issuing anywhere between 100,000 and 7 million IDPs in the first year should no deal be agreed with the EU. In July 2018, the Department reported to us that it regarded the project as deliverable.
•
The Department had identified the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA) databases it most needed to replicate, and the subset of four where it would prepare contingency solutions for readiness on 29 March 2019. It had not produced detailed delivery plans or started delivery of any new IT systems that would need to be ready for March 2019, and it was still developing the governance structure for delivery (paragraphs 2.28 to 2.30).

[Flynnie]

I assume that's what it's supposed to be- or maybe it's just Ryanair or something.

Flynnie, not interrupting your opponent is a problem here because there's a clock ticking. Labour are shifting, let's be fair about that, but they aren't where they need to be on the Single Market/ Freedom of Movement. I don't blame the leadership entirely for that- 15 MPs voted against the Single Market rather than abstain on it, and some of the abstainers wouldn't vote for it- so they wouldn't be defeating the government. But I think they need to be supporting it for the sake of putting pressure on. Otherwise, I think May positions herself as being moderate.

There's a time to push the conversation forward and a time to let the Tories do it for you. Several prominent Tories have called for a new referendum this week, the Chequers plan is in total disarray, etc.

When that starts to sag, maybe do something. But not right *now*.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I don't think you can support a second referendum on remaining if you've been talking like the Single Market is a bad thing.

[Flynnie]

Matt Zarb-Cousin talking about support for a second referendum massively increasing when notices coming in about food rationing and grounded planes is either prescience or him dogwhistling that Labour are going to have something to say at that point.

[Tubby Isaacs]

I'm not sure planes being grounded is all that likely. The EU's position as I understand it is "you want to be a third country, you'll be treated like one". That's scary enough, without grounding planes.

I don't know how you'd make sure planes weren't grounded, mind.

[Lang Spoon]

Without a deal it happens, Tubbs.

[Lang Spoon]

We are in Open Skies only through EU membership. No US flights either.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Yeah, I know, but I presume it's possible to do some deal on that, at least temporarily. It's maybe just me, but it would seem like overhardballing. Then again, there are people in the Cabinet who'd think "bring it on", so maybe I'm a naive bastard.

[Diable Rouge]

An article on WTO border rules:

https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/...mpression=true

[Tubby Isaacs]

Thank you, that's very helpful clarification.

[ursus arctos]

Anything is possible, but I wouldn't be making my "concessions" bet on a sector where the competition consists of flag carriers on the one hand and absolute cut-throats on the other.

[johnr]

I don't think you can support a second referendum on remaining if you've been talking like the Single Market is a bad thing.

It wouldn't necessarily be a 'second referendum on remaining', would it? It'd just be a second referendum with 2, or 3, options.

[Tubby Isaacs]

What would Labour recommend in it?

[The Awesome Berbaslug!!!]

Yeah, I know, but I presume it's possible to do some deal on that, at least temporarily. It's maybe just me, but it would seem like overhardballing. Then again, there are people in the Cabinet who'd think "bring it on", so maybe I'm a naive bastard.

The thing is that it's not hardballing though, it's pointing out an unintended consequence of one of the UK's red lines. The Eu isn't going to starve Britain, it's the decision to leave the customs union that will crush your ports. As Ursus alludes to, the current air travel market in Europe is a fucking miracle, an absolute fucking miracle, and I have no idea how they managed to pull it off. This isn't the natural order of things in that industry, any more than Manaus is the natural order of things in the amazonia region.

[Snake Plissken]

The delusion is strong with this one.